Member Info for Metamorphosis84

https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/contractors/kier/kier-living-sale-not-enough-to-fix-debt-problem-19-04-2021/

So what usually happens to the value of the average mug's share when dilution of takes place through an equity raise?

Obviously the media have been banging on about the KL sale for months (years).

Are we about to see something, along with an equity raise?

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/construction-group-kier-closes-in-on-equity-raise-and-housebuilding-sale-12229454

Kier Living just reported an 89m loss.

Does not bode well.

Or just folk who can read a balance sheet and call it for what it is.

Under 75m M/Cap, chances of getting a meaningful RI away diminishing.

Aggressive de-leveraging an/or cash raise still required.

Still think 0p is more realistic than £2.

But wthdik? Have only been consistently right with this share for the past 2 years.

Funny that the Board consider a downturn in securing work as being a high risk. Sort of goes against all the optimism re order book that folks on this BB keep banging on about...

"A general market or sector downturn may materially and adversely affect the Group's ability to secure work.

The Group's performance is affected by macroeconomic factors which affect UK business in general and/or the markets in which the Group operates.



COVID-19 impact: high.

COVID-19 has resulted in high levels of macroeconomic sector uncertainty and volatility and has resulted in the UK entering a recession. This has, in turn, adversely affected the Group's financial performance."

Bore off plank.

This is a bulletin board. People ask for opinions. I have obliged.

Just because I have been consistently right- not long ago you were saying it wouldn't go below 300p ha ha ha .

Absolute plumb.

And no, I won't be going away.

I suppose it could be considered that the MM's are algorithmic "super computers" of sorts, more pronounced when the computers are doing the work when there are higher volumes and much more buying/selling activity. This share recently has been more on a drift downwards on pretty low daily volumes.

"where is the bottom?"
Zero potentially

at what point do shares get suspended?
When there is reason for that to happen.

And who actually decides on the price of any share at any given time, not just Kier? Is it another super algorithm?

No, the company doesn't decide the price. Thats not how shares work. The valuation is set by market sentimebt. I.e. if you have one share, how much is someone else prepared to buy that share from you. At the moment the market is saying about 55p. For reasons much discussed on this BB. Its why I have a little smile to myself when clowns come on valuing the share at 200p. Its ridiculous because they wouldn't but the share at that price for themselves, so why would they expect some other mug to do so?

."Can't see the RI being well supported at any price"

Can't imagine many potential book runners getting excited after the last RI debacle either.

Terrible value for money.

A cursory glance at the charts for the past month show you what direction this is heading.

Well done Kier on amassing a huge order book. Good luck surviving long enough to complete the works.

SP was in trouble when 68p was broken. What's the next support? Seem to remember 58p as being the all time low.

"Everything else is just noise..."

Debt and cash burn are not "just noise".

Its the reason why this share is at 63p.

Bad news if it has, connected to the calamity that is taking place in the Banking sector.

Not good for indebted companies like Kier.

"NSN, by much improved management, you mean lower SP since arrived, failed to sell KL, increased debt, and looking to have to raise money through some form of shareholder dilution?"

Yes apart from that, a massive improvement.

Sort of like how this is a really undervalued company, *if* you ignore the debt mountain and eye watering cash burn

What this share needs is a government (re)announcement committing to increased infrastructure spending.

There is hardly a clamour for shares here and no wonder. The last RI was hardly a roaring success.

Who would want to own equity in a highly diluted share?

Interesting analysis from the experts the other side of the pond

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-kie/kier-group-shares/news/these-4-measures-indicate-that-kier-group-lonkie-is-using-debt-extensively/

" a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Kier Group recorded negative free cash flow, in total"