Member Info for Metamorphosis84

Well well well well well.

I have been telling you lot that this is junk for over a year, it has continued to go down.

Yet the dimwitted still think this is the bottom!

Will they ever learn?

Back on 2nd March I said:

"Proffessor Chuggley, I'll mark this one for 'revisit in a week or so', the experts seem pretty concerned that this could overwhelm the NHS in the same way that South Korea had been overwhelmed. 

They have warned that nothing is off the table including significant social and economic impacts"

Been nearly a month since I posted that and by goodness, a lot has happened. This has played out pretty much how I predicted, albeit, the situation in the UK may be worse than South Korea, dependent on what measure is used.

What does this mean for Kier? More secure because of the government financial assistance or less secure because the government will want the money back?

Boris on the other hand went from, 'we're 4 weeks' from Italy we don't need to stop gatherings, herd immunity' and so on to 'Lets crash the economy' over the course of one weekend.

Just asking that question demonstrates that you haven't been paying attention and only seeing the validity of all the "this will be 200 after KL is sold/results come out/budget is announced etc etc.

I hope people heeded my warning a couple of weeks ago:

"My thoughts, it was a dog when I came on here in September to tell the rampers that it was a dog.

It was still a dog in November. And a dog in January when I last posted here.

It will continue to be a dog."

Sell.

I get you Marty, I can't see how they can get an RI away into such a severely falling SP.

Is this curtains?

MartyPoppins, I agree, but from a timing point of view it is out of their hands. If they have a balance sheet problem, they are legally bound by stock exchange rules to fess up.

My huge bone of contention is that last June they told the market that there was a strong balance sheet and yet have left it until now to come clean.

What sort of discount from the current price will temp investors into taking part?

No, I never thought it could be contained, said ad much on this board a couple of weeks ago.

So much for the budget propelling this to 200.

No credibility at all.

Gone from 28th June 2019
"The Group has a robust balance sheet including a strong net asset position and positive net cash.........We have a strong balance sheet, profitable operations and a broad range of capabilities to support the growth of the business. Costain is well placed to secure the opportunities ahead of us"

To 12th March 2020

"Strengthening our balance sheet will enable us to capitalise on these opportunities and further enhance our capabilities"

So, at what point in the months in between was it realised that the balance sheet was not as strong as they had previously stated. And why was this not communicated to the market in a timely manner?

Now the CFO reported in Construction News saying the debt is too high.
Quite a different story to what they said with the profit warning.
Has the board misled the market?

It is even more inept that they have given the exact reason that Kier used in November 18 ie. We need to pay suppliers.
My guess is a failed RI, with the bookrunners picking up the tab, just like Kier. Then a few months down the line after they have burned through the cash they will be in an even worse position.
Learn from history and leave this one well alone now.

So basically everything about strong cash positions etc since the profit warning was a L.O.B.

Avoid.

The least subtle pump I have ever seen.

And I saw A LOT of pumping over on the IRV board.

People getting excited about the "Boris Boom" and all the announcements in the budget favourable to Kier have clearly missed things like this:

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/03/10/next-five-year-25bn-roads-spending-plan-delayed/

And this

https://www.cityam.com/national-infrastructure-strategy-set-to-be-delayed-until-after-budget/

"Circuit breakers should kick in soon in the dow which will kick start the bounce."

Just like the feds emergency rate cut kick started a bounce?

Covid having the sort of effect that I expected Chuggley, as I predicted a week ago.

Stunning, nothing short of stunning.

Heading towards deepwater horizon territory.

This was always going to happen Cindy, the end of one of the longest bull runs in history, fuelled by worldwide central bank intervention. The bubble was going to pop sooner rather than later, but it looks as though the virus has been the catalyst.

Anyway, i'm off to my local store to stock up on bog roll, before its too late.