Kenj is correct in his prediction and reasoning IMO.
I expect that when the inevitable cash call comes, it will instead be a highly dilutive Debt for Equity that is proposed, offering say 5% to existing shareholders, a la the IRV proposal. (Their shareholders voted for pre pack administration and de-listing instead).
Hats off Ifonly with your 20% prediction. Not as much as I had hoped, but still a great profit in such a short space of time. Looks like madness has took hold again and its going up, should be worth another look I should think.
Ifonly, a stunning day huge gains in such a short space of time. I called it early this morning on SPD board. Given what happened, I cannot believe it only went down a couple of percent during the day! Bonanza will come in on Monday. How much do you reckon it will be down? I am thinking MCAP will halve with that tax bill and the HOF misadventure?
Absolute carnage indeed. I think I used words along the lines of the strongest of strong sells earlier. I hope people heeded that warning. Meanwhile, for those canny Foxy's who opened shorts at lunchtime, a very quick and very lucrative bonanza is in store on Monday.
As a footnote, I read Coltrane are building a stake in SPD. The same Coltrane who flushed millions down the toilet with IRV.
Still a strong sell, but I fear the damage is already done. Not one, or two but three delays was a huge red flag.
Volume and sentiment, there have been 4 trades today I guess there is not enough sentiment for people to want to buy at its current price. Old fashioned supply and demand. If it was worth the 180 that you paid for it today, you would have no problem finding a buyer for it. Thats sentiment. To put in to perspective, there have been more comments made on this board today than there have been trades.
Well its possible I suppose, but I would say low volume and poor sentiment is a more likely reason. If you have a suspicion that market manipulation is taking place, then you have yourself a very strong reason not to buy this share!
I believe that the SP will realise zero equity yes.
My reasoning is there has been "insufficient focus on cash generation and that the Group today has debt levels that are too high" and that to there will be required "additional steps to improve cash generation and reduce leverage"
By the the way, not my words, but Kier's words quoted verbatim.
Ultimately I don't believe that the company will have miraculously begun to improve cash generation. And that they will struggle to get disposals away to reduce leverage. The debt will need paying and they will be at risk of being unable to service it.
As for my position, refer to my post at the start of June when I said:
I don't generally give commentaries on what positions I open, be they long or short. 2 reasons, based on what goes through my mind whenever I see when someone posts "just bought or sold xxx shares here" 1. I don't believe you. 2. I don't care.
So on that basis, I practise what I preach and usually (there are a few exceptions) don't comment on my positions
Yes you are quite correct Benny, tbh I am surprised that some of these clowns have managed to work out how to use computers or other technology to write their nonsense on these BBs. Maybe their carers are helping them under close supervision.
Kier is a more volatile, risky share, attracting day traders. Whilst it goes up some days, it has rarely been sustainable and has struggled to hold on gains. For the savvy trader, there is money to be made there, but inevitably it will get hammered again when news comes that disposals haven't been made/debt is increasing/cash raise is required. Wouldn't want to hold shares there when it happens.
Costain is less exciting and whilst I haven't seen a clear buy signal or breakout yet, is a safer bet than Kier.