Member Info for Metamorphosis84

Well well well.

I wrote on 27th November 2018:

"Another of those seemingly iffy shares. Down 9% today on a broker forecast, up significantly last week, on a broker forecast.
Will sell on the next peak and never return."

Glad I followed my instincts, very wise for taking my own excellent advice.

Barge pole.

Thank goodness my hung parliament predictions have been wrong.

Over to Boris now. Lets hope he doesn't **** it up.

The bookies? They always win don't they, mugging people off who believe there will be a con majority....

No, look to the GBP/EUR or GBP/USD.

Dipped again since my last post......

Wow Buzzby, I am amazed at how naive some people are.

Look at the queues forming at polling stations, you reckon they are coming out in force to support leave parties?

And where is the evidence that the "red wall" is collapsing.

Dominic Raab probably going to get booted out for his appalling handling of the Harry Dunn case.

Key marginals like Hastings with candidates making very controversial statements.

Labour making a late surge in the polls- just like 2017. And Boris putting up a pretty poor campaign (just like May in 17)

The clues are all there, surely? This has got hung parliament written all over it.

I by the way started betting against the Pound to Euro when Boris was hiding in a fridge and it nudged 1.19....

Follow the money

Shelven"common sense" for a moment, because there has been little of that in this election.

Follow the money, it is telling you that a hung parliament is emerging as the most likely outcome. And with few allies for the Tories, a hard left government is a banker now.

As investors, you need to ask yourselves "how am I going to cover myself for this outcome"

It appears that the market, much like the Conservative Party have been very complacent.

So all the bad news wasn't out after all.

What else have they been sitting on?

" A lot of psychological tactics were used today."

You mean a car crash RNS? Thats not a psychological tactic.

Riskisprofit

You win

The award for the most stabs in the dark today

Keep going clownbutnot out, you'll get it right eventually

Wow just look at the spread, and only 20mins away from post close trading.
Clinical insanity the only good reason to buy this evening.

Nickel I don't know why people are so indignant, a good number of those bashing you have experience losing their cash on TGC, DEB, AMG an so on.
Have seen at least 4 on here, that were also on those other shares, calling the bottom, pumping etc.
Can't understand why they are getting all butthurt about it

Now clownbutnotout has joined in on this circus calling the bottom. Another blast from the past.
I thought you lost all your cash on TGC. Or was it Deb?

"67.52% down. Has anyone felt such a drop in a ftse share before."

Loads of examples, ask all the ramptastic pumpers here, most of them had them down as great recovery plays too.

Falling knife, I see all the usual characters are on here trying to catch it. Not content with losing their cash on IRV, DEB, TCG and so on.
Same characters, every time.

Whatever happened to all those it'll be whatever by Christmas predictions?

As this heads towards back towards an all time low, it seems evident that card played on 1st August's "Post close update" was a one trick number.
They tried playing it again at the AGM but it appears that the market is not cutting the whole "expressions of interest" and "sale progressing well" line that keeps coming out.

If they don't pull an Ace out PDQ this could unravel very quickly as the MCAP disintegrates.

"Kier Living at a guess is somewhere between 50M and 150M"

Marked, it is much better to rely on fact rather than guesswork. See the RNS from the board in June:

"As at 30 June 2018, Kier Living had a tangible net asset value of £120m"

Either way if you are valuing the KL at 50m then you are inadvertently making a bear case here.

"you could feel....they have a lot of debt and banks will have power over ordinary shareholders (that is to say banks get anything before shareholders) and thus the Kier Living sale is being used to service the debt. That means the board can sell without shareholder approval"

Again, lets not deal with feelings, but facts, there are rules that must be abided by in order to trade on the LSE. Again what you are describing is more akin to a company that has been already been de listed, once again I fear you are accidentally making a bear case.

"I'm trying to think of another example of a company in the same boat, and the closest I can come up......"

The entire basis of your argument is predicated on the sale of Kier Living being unprecedented?

Marked, hi and thanks for your thoughts

 "the argument put forward for it is if there was buyer they'd have to say something in statement by now as a PLC. Surely if that was the case they'd also, and they've been given ample opportunity since September 19, they'd have to say something like "No Buyer found" if the converse was true?"

I think instead of saying "No Buyer found" they are going for flakey language like there being "expressions of interest" and "sale is progressing" short on detail.

As regards do they have to report to the market a firm bid or not, see IMIO's post from a couple of days ago. If there is no bid, then it stands to reason that there is no buyer?

Its not a crystal ball though is it?

Its an assessment of what the Board itself has told to the market, for instance:

""the Group today has debt levels that are too high."

And that they need to

"simplify the Group's portfolio by selling or substantially exiting non-core activities: Kier Living, Property, Facilities Management and Environmental Services"

This isn't crystal ball work. These are the words of the board in June this year.

So far for example, there has been no bid made for Kier Living.

So instead of commenting on what I think will happen (the crystal ball thing) I'll invite you to answer 2 questions:

1. How long can the company continue without selling Kier Living before an alternative cash raise is needed.
2. What might that cash raise be?

The market is already answering those questions.

No crystal ball required.

"Any background on that claim meta? Bit of a bold statement!"

Stupid question.
There has been no bid.
Had there been a bid there would be have been a legal obligation to inform the market.