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A tree shake, I think. Started back up today.
At current prices Kier will automatically rejoin the FTSE250 index in March. That'll really cause some big moves up, both on the lead up to the index reshuffle and immediately after when the index funds buy up Kier,
hmmmm. now that '***' deletion does look very strange.
Now I'm intrigued. Are we allowed to discuss alBUMs and say on an unrelated note that we're invested in a company that makes knobs?
Oh, we are.
I suppose we're not allowed to mention Fanny Willis either.
seems a bit unfair on the cigarette companies too. presumably ****burns isn't very popular around these parts either.
citywire article:
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-naked-wines-sage-kier-ibstock-anto***asta/a2434373
Another good day for Kier shares. They're being tipped in the investment press as people gradually recognise the scale of the recovery here:
This is from citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/ today. I'll post the link but it might not work on this site. Here's the piece:
Peel Hunts sees plenty of opportunity at Kier
The investment opportunity at construction and property services group Kier (KIE) remains ‘substantial’ given the quality of the order book, says Peel Hunt.
Analyst Andrew Nussey retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 180p on the stock, which was trading at 125p on Friday.
First-half results were in line, with trading ahead of the previous period and ‘underpinned by volume growth and operational focus’, said Nussey.
The business has a focus on cash outperformance and expects to deliver a net cash position, with a ‘material’ £100m reduction in debt.
‘The visibility and momentum leave full-year 2024 well underpinned,’ said Nussey. ‘Consistent and strong management has established a robust operational platform that can deliver long-term, cash-backed growth.’
Although the shares are up 70% over the past 12 months, Nussey said the ‘investment opportunity remains substantial through cash generation, rerating, and from earnings outperformance given the quality of the order book and superior execution.’
The market is slowly waking up to Kier. It's hovering just under the top 10 risers and might make it on to that leaderboard by the close. This will be rerated now. Should be a good week next week too for the price. The foreward price/earnings is ludicrously low for a company making well over £100m in cash every year - that seems to be the run rate for the last six months even with the purchase of Buckingham's rail division. The key reason for Kier's success in a tough market is that they had to cut off every bit of fat after they got into difficulty in 2019. The business is lean and profit focused while others have yet to really confront their fitness for an inflationary environment, hence the many business failures in construction. Now it is literally paying dividends for them (and us after March).
Bottom*** If you're 60% down right now, your average price would be 275p. When did you buy KIE? It hasn't been that price since 2019. If you've been holding for many years, but you're now saying you can't afford the risk, AFTER Kier has done two rights issues and sold its housebuilding division and cleared debt down to a reasonable level and is now generating £120m a yr and is about to reinstate dividends, I am wondering how you quantify risk exactly. If you've got shares at that price, then you must've held through the pandemic, a major European war, massive inflation but NOW you think it's risky? Something doesn't add up with you, if you don't mind me saying so.
A lot of buys of 100,000 this morning. I'm seeing three or four at that level plus one for 150,000. This may have been triggered by the momentary dip to 103p. I might be wrong, but I think that people are watching this share with the intention of building a position ahead of the January announcement, and wondering whether it might drop below £1. There have been few sellers and a new level seems to be in place at 105-108 for a fortnight so now buyers are accepting this price before it rises further. I think we could easily be around 120p by mid-January and then 130p plus, after the H1 trading update and dividend announcement in late January.
Monthly and yearly uptrend seems well established. This was in the high 120s two years ago when its prospects were not nearly as good as they are today. Order book is much bigger now, dividend return has been announced (though exactly what it will be has yet to be stated) debt is lower, profits are higher, the business has more net cash and is generating more cash. One way or another this is getting to 130p soon imo. The only question is, will it be in a rush in January or a gradual climb from here? Two months will go very quickly.
As predicted - stellar results!!! Profit margin is up, even better than forecast at 3.9%. Revenue is up at £3.4bn. The order book is now worth over £10.1bn. Cash is up 2,000%. What an outcome!
Annual report will be published tomorrow and we will get to see the precise detail behind the trading update preview back in July. My hunch is that this will be a stellar report for Kier. In the update Kier reported £60 net cash, well up from £2.9m last year and said it had strong cash inflow from construction contracts. The fact that they snapped up Buckingham's rail division with just £9.6m of it shows strong confidence, and this is coming from Davies, the most cautious CEO out there. Kier's own earnings forecast was for something north of £100m and it looks like they may have even exceeded that.
Big volume and steady buying so far today. The update shows a great set of results. Kier is thriving due to cost plus contracts. The order book remains full, and profits are turning into cash. Net cash of £60m. The market cap is barely £400m which is just four times forecast earnings. Next year will likely see a small divi reinstated. I think we'll soon be back over £1.
The person posting that Kier's net debt is high is posting misinformation. Kier has net cash! It's the average monthly borrowings used for working capital that Kier also reports was £245m. This is more than balanced by incoming cash. Kier had £5m net cash at last yr end.
Bigger volume today and a price breakout. It's looking like a 12-month high. A flurry of contract wins announced recently. Kier is still the biggest UK regional construction firm and has a fwd p/e of 3 (ridiculously low for a business with some net cash). End of yr is at the end of next month. A few weeks after we will get an update on how the yr turned out. Most of the construction majors have posted good news and Kier will likely be the same. Price should be at least double what it is today imv.
snoop, the appt of the non-exec and the retrace of the shares are not related. Margaret Hassell replaces Heather Rabbatts. One out, and one in. Rabbatts' leaving was announced a few days before. Their main role was/is being the 'chair' of the remuneration committee amongst other non-exec duties. The non-execs pay is £67k in 2022. It's a part-time role.
More big buys this morning. Somebody knows something...
Heavier volume being traded in Kier shares so far today. The results seem to be sinking in. This company is at three times earnings. The shares should be on a par with peers morgan sindall. Kier is winning more contracts than MGNS.