Member Info for ChesterGreen

Am I the only person to have seen the research note from the above today?

My view: positive, but I think that they have double counted the effects of the two placings this year. That's only a minor gripe though compared to a successful outcome of SC-3 in Trinidad.

Patience and do your own research by reading the Annual report (for example) is my strategy.

CG

I gather from the chat today that some trolls are moaning about the lack of a Moroccan monetisation deal.

It's worth bearing in mind that possibly two deals were being negotiated. The first and smaller deal regarded the Mou-6 / CNG prospect discussed in the February ITR. This was also called the Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) by Jasper, etc. As I understand it, this was the deal that the RNs told us wasn't proceeding.

The second deal is the larger transaction, started in October 2025, marketed to National Oil Companies (NOC) or non-European major oil companies. This may or may not include the GSA. Negotiations may still be ongoing, I don't think we should discount the possibility.

In the meantime, as I said the other day, we have news from Trinidad to digest over the next couple of months. Ireland too is back as a prospect,although I think that will be 2027.

A point about Mou-6 and the CNG project, will the new OHNYM contribute it's 25% of the capex costs once an Exploitation Concession is applied for and approved?

Do your on research and read the information that's available, is my suggestion.

CG

Less than 1million shares traded so far today - it's too hot obviously!

Will we get news as soon as next week about Snowcap 2-ST1 and Jacobin 1? Another 20 - 40 bopd at attractive net back of approx $50/ barrel.

A confirmation of when drilling will start at Snowcap-3? Minimum of 200 bopd, also at $50 / barrel.

I'm staying tuned in over the summer.

CG

Hi MRob,

Have you seen page 65 of the recent Annual Report? It lists the different fiscal terms for the producing T&T fields.

Makes calculations much more complicated.

CG

Hi investorprime,

That's the $64m (hopefully more) question!

In Morocco, the majority view here is that we are expecting an announcement of a Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with a local partner OR a full exit via a sale to a major or National Oil Company, Either deal would fund the next well (Mou 6) but the 2nd option would release $100m+ to Predator.

In Trinidad, the production figures for March 2026 are due to be released and we're looking for a) what effect recent drilling has had on the level of production and b) what is the impact of the rise in the price of a barrel of oil (25%+0.

Additionally, the Annual figures for the year to 31st December are due for release. Whilst they will show a loss and be largely academic, they will be expected to provide further insight into the above.

Lastly, and a very long shot, we may get news from Ireland regarding a licence renewal. Again it would be a multi-million $ impact.

I hope that gives a flavour of the expected newsflow over the next few days. DYOR.

CG

From Oct presentation (Pg 10):

" Capitalised value of Guercif licence £18.748 million".

About $25m.

387 bpd was given in the RNS announcing the placing on 20th January.

Very pedantic question. Find something more 'productive' to do.

Agreed. The trolls don't seem to be able to understand nuance - they take everything literally.

I don't follow the transition of the planets, to be clear. I misspent my youth studying economics instead.

I ought to check what I've written before posting.

I meant to say $250,000 revenue PER MONTH on current price and production.

I'm sure that I typed $32.6 net back. Sorry.

Interestingly, if we truck Snowcap output to South Erin collection point, who owns that? Why our old friends West Indies Energy (WIEGL)!

How much will they charge us for the privilege?

Hi Keith,

One of my favourite quotes is "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable" - JK Galbraith.

I agree with your point about current production. As I've previously said, at current oil prices and rate of production, PRD will be earning $250,000 revenue. The majority of that will be profit - after paying the licence fees for the 4 producing fields and identifiable admin fees.

The unknown element is Snowcap at Cory Moruga. If I was being hyper-critical, the recent ITR was lacking in financial (economic) detail. It doesn't spell out the fiscal terms for CM, for example. Predator must know them and it would be helpful to share them. Are there capital allowances available? The ITR doesn't say so but I'd be surprised if there weren't.

When calculating the potential numbers for Snowcap, my understanding is that NABI won't be involved in SC - 3, so the 6.7% discount you mention won't apply. My calculation for $100 per barrel oil price is to take the $32.6 jet back assumed under the $60/barrel scenario, add $40 to allow for the price increase and subtract $5 extra tax / royalty to give $67.60. As an aside, I'm sure that I remember reading that when the 16% interest in CM was purchased from Touchstone, they were entitled to a royalty from CM production although the amount wasn't specified. The ITR is silent on this.

In short, as we get more information we can refine our models but I don't expect they will ever be 100% accurate!

Is it time for Predator to hire a Cfo or similar? The RNS numbers could use a bit more precision. For example, the $337,000 figure mentioned in the last RNS is, I think, the year to date total for January and February. It's too high for one month, in my opinion.

Onwards and upwards.

CG

My understanding of the current situation regarding SPT is that it applies to operators producing 4000 bpd.

So we're not there yet, maybe next year!

The ITR on page 7 includes the intriguing passage "SGL note that Cory Moruga, Icacos and Bonasse licences benefit from attractive fiscal terms which provide an incentive to undertake work programmes to initiate and / or enhance production", so PRD may have some additional space to produce before SPT becomes payable.

That should say $500,000 revenue for the year ending 31/12/25.

I believe that the figures for the year ended 31/12/25 are due to be published in the next 4 - 5 weeks.

They should give us an idea of what we can expect. For instance, in the Year end operations update RNS dated 17/12/25, the net monthly revenue figure of $100,405 was announced. This was dismissed by some as impossible but if revenue is confirmed as approximately $500,000 (£375,000) then we'll know that we're on the right lines.

My estimate of the monthly revenue is now $240,000. This is based on an oil price of $88 / barrel, an effective tax rate of 12.5%, 30 days in a month and production of 300 bpd @ 30% and 87 bpd @15%.

Which gives us:

300 * (88 - 11) * 30 * 30% = $207,900 plus

87 * (88 - 11) * 30 * 15% = $30,146 = $238,000

As production matures (moves up from 15% to 30%) and increases further, especially when Snowcap - 3 is included, this figure will go up.

Unless the oil price goes down, of course.

Gudin,

If you read the RNS of 1/9/25 it defines "The Company" as Predator Oil & Gas Holdings PLC at the very top, so when you quote the passage starting "The Company has executed...", I don't think you can interpret that as a subsidiary company.

To my mind there has never been a question of the REVENUE being anything other than 30 or 15%. It was always a question of PROFITS and whether WIEGL would be entitled to 49% of the subsidiary companies respective profit. I erred on the side of caution and assumed they would be. If I was mistaken, I apologise.

Thanks to Keith for his clarification (again!), I feel confident that he is right.

Masterfly,

Your question was for KeithOz, but I'll give it a shot, if that's OK?

For Cory Moruga (Snowcap), because PRD is operating it alone - PRD will pay the infrastructure costs. The recent placing (RNS 20/1/26) allocated £500,000 for trucks etc. The 1,5km pipeline to the Moruga West collection station might be extra to this.

For the other fields, Bonasse, Goudron, Innis-Trinity and Icacos - in the short term I don't see the need for any infrastructure over and above the day-to-day operating costs that would be covered by the agreement with NABI.

In terms of Keith's figure of 1800 bpd production, my prediction is that the 4 fields covered by the NABI agreement described above will be producing almost 1000 bpd by December 2026. The last figure we had was 387 bpd but we have to add Bon-17, 18 and 19 to that. Bon - 20 and other shallow infill wells were forecast to add a further 200 - 300 barrels per day.

In Goudron, the heavy workover of GY - 211 plus 2 other workovers may add a further 200 bpd to the total.

Other developments at Innis-Trinity and Icacos may be scheduled for later this year.

The remainder of the 1800 bpd will be down to Snowcap - 3. I'm pencilling in 500 bpd but we won't know the exact amount for some time. Hopefully less than six months.

In short, I agree with Keith that 1750 bpd is entirely possible by this December.

Apologies for butting in.

CG

Hi Rob,

I agree with the sentiments but just to clarify, PRD will get 30% of the revenue from the initial output of Goudron, Icacos and Inniss-Trinity not 100%.

So, for the last total production figure of 387, we will be getting 30% of 280bpd plus 15% of 100 or so. What we won't know is how long it will take to payback NABI before we get 30% again. My guesstimate would be no more than an average of 12 months, but we'll see.

The revenue will have to have tax and royalties taken off, as well as the licence fees, for example.

Then because the 4 fields are held through a subsidiary that is only 51% owned, a further 49% of the result of all the above will be allocated to 'minority interests', in my opinion. Only after all that will we get to profit.

Having said that, the continued increase in revenue from infield drilling and work overs is a useful addition. To take Bonnasee for an example, Prd paid $170,000 for the 51% stake, implying that the whole was worth $333,333. That though was for a production of virtually 0. What is it worth when it produces say 250bpd?

There are a lot of the details of how it will all play out still to become clear but the overall direction is encouraging.

GLA,

CG

Apologies for the reference to Blockbusters - 1980s TV show.

On page 7 of the October presentation, Business Develoment (sic), it mentions Trinidad new licence application 400 bopd development potential.

The recent fundraise allocated £3 million to SC3 - or approx. $4 million. Will it really cast that much? Is the money raised partially a 'war chest' for new prospects?

GLA

CG

4everlong,

But which Christmas - 2028 or 2029?

CG

@Gotreal,

I broadly agree with you. In my opinion, I think we should point out production of cathode from Sable is at Jubilee Metals group level - not the subsidiary responsible for Molefe mine which GLR will end up owning 23.75% of.

It's my understanding that Sable (through Sable Zinc Kabwe Ltd?) will be buying both the 'high-grade' ROM ( >2%) and the concentrate from the 0.7% stockpile from Molefe. I think it's not likely that Sable will pay the full LME price for the quantity of contained copper therein. I'd go further and suggest that the Sable subsidiary which produces the cathode will be the most profitable part.

(If JMK is reading this, I claim coffee and biscuits for suggesting this - say £4 in shares).

CG

I thought highway robbery had died out with Dick Turpin in the 18th century. Then we get this circular this morning.

The deal was clearly conceived at the worst time for Jubilee shareholders. Nothing since the announcement in June appears to have changed the terms.

I have several objections, but time is of the essence this morning, so I'll have to come back later.

Inter alia, the following are points I think are relevant:

1. The valuation is based on production and prices prevailing at the end of FY24 without sufficient regard to changes PRIOR to the uplift in PGM prices since June 2025.

2. The PGM production figure of between 36000 and 38000 ounces was low in response to low PGM prices. Producing 1.65m tonnes of chrome produces in turn enough feed to produce up to 75000 oz of PGM (maybe more). That's why we had an agreement with Norrtham in the past and recently announced a new agreement to process a further 11500 ounces. There is scope to produce 50000oz (inyoni 38000, Northam 6000 and 5750 from the new JV). That still leaves ~25000 oz/year to add to the stockpile. Producing up to 50000oz per year would make a nonsense of the artificial 1% fall in the chrome price needs to be offset by a 3.4% rise in PGM prices.

3. No mention of the current stockpile of PGMs because the board have shamefully allowed it not to be officially measured and thereby included in the group balance sheet. The exact quantity is unknown but Leon said at the AGM in November 2024 it was "7 years worth" of production, based on the Northam JV. At the least, this is 70000oz and may be substantially more. Even it these ounces only yield $100 profit, that's $7m that is not reflected in this sale process. As I say in point 2, the excess production could be 25000 ounces per year which will be available for the purchaser to sit on and realise the value when they've finished paying the $90m.

4. The $90m is payable over 4 years - not 3. This reduces the value to Jubilee. Note that the purchaser of the SA operations thinks that it is profitable to take on all the liabilities of the SA operations AND pay JLP $90m,

I think I'll leave it there, although I could go on, I thought the original announcement undervalued the SA operations. We're never going to receive 100% but I think we're giving the purchaser too much. And that was before the substantial increase in PGMs.

I've read the circular and I'm voting no to the proposal.

CG