Member Info for ChesterGreen

Edzi,

I'm going to break my self imposed rule of only posting once a day.

I was at the last AGM in Nov 2024 where Jonathan Morley-Kirk was introduced as the (then) temporary CFO. He was asked directly by one of the shareholders whether or not he was in post because of Slater Investments intervention. His answer was that he is absolutely not 'Slater's Man' on the board of JLP. I choose to believe that.

That aside, we're in agreement broadly. To misquote Oscar Wilde: "to lose one director might be regarded as misfortune, to lose 2 directors and 2 PDMRs looks like carelessness!".

I think that the Zambian operations are about 2 years behind schedule. Without going over old ground - some of the delays were unavoidable but the fact remains some were. As a company, we're not in an ideal place now. In my estimation, selling off the profitable SA operations (at a low price) will not remedy the situation.

CG

Edzi,

I agree. The reason there is a bid for the SA operations is that someone thinks they can make mote profit out of them than the current management.

If the sale goes through, it wouldn't surprise me if someone else bid for the remainder (Jubilee Copper?) for the same reason - they think that they can deliver results quicker / larger, etc.

CG

The end of FY25 is Monday. We don't get FY results until October, usually. We can't wait until then?

As Gray said the other day, at the half year stage EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation) for chrome and PGMs was $24 million less ALL the corporate EBITDA of $4 million, which gives $20 million.

I think it is reasonable to assume EBITDA for the SA operations of at least $20 million for H2 FY25 - maybe more.

So, total EBITDA (for SA) of $40m. How does this square with Leon saying " North of 10 times earnings" equalling $90m?

Not included in the calculations (we await the Circular): the value of the PGM stockpile, Jubilee Technical Services and how the debts will be repaid (RCF $24M + GBF $11m = $35m).

I'll be voting against the sale unless the Circular contains blockbuster information that we're not aware of.

CG

Jubilee Technical Services might be the jewel in the crown of the SA operations to be sold. It is the basis of innovation and development for the group.

Will it be carved out of the sale? Will it be split? How much is it worth on its own? Could it be easily replicated and at what cost?

Is now the time for such disruption?

Jubilee didn't ask for authority to issue shares for cash (= placing) at the AGM in Nov 24, so there CAN Not be a placing until the next AGM.

I voted against giving authority to allot share at 15% of the issued share capital and it required two counts for that resolution to eventually pass. So far out of the 450m shares that could be issued ~175m shares have been.

CG

@Gotreal. Totally agree with your last post.

Did anyone notice that there were 2 figures quoted for capital expenditure in the recent interim results?

In the highlights it was $17.8m ($16.8m) but in the financial review section further down the release it is given as $25.4m.

$17.8m is reflected in the cash flow statement as the total invested in plant and intangible assets. I wonder if the $7.5m difference was spent on infrastructure developments (roads, bridges, electricity connections?) and subsequently capitalised? That's quite a lot for a six month period but in the wider scheme of things, worthwhile.

CG

This shows the lack of clarity in the RNS - again.

I read it initially as 11500oz in total but it makes more sense for that to be Jubilee's attributable share. It makes it a 32% increase in PGM production and more likely the product of 300000 tonnes.

If it's Thutse production, isn't that already subject to a JV? Doesn't that make it unlikely?

Confused - maybe.

It is good news however. I'd estimate an extra $5 million profit - 25% this FY and 75% next.

More details required.

CG

Good point, prof

23000oz from about 300000 tonnes would make sense, I think. Roughly 15 tonnes of feed per Oz of PGM.

492k @ 4.6p for me.

Still processing all the information from last week.

CG

@Gotreal 09:21,

At the AGM in November, Leon let slip the name Grovenor when talking about Project G. We decided at a debrief afterwards (in the pub next door) not to disclose it until JLP did. As Seis says, it was in the Zeus note released the other day.

I don't know 100% it is Mumbwa mine but internet research on Grovenor Resources threw it up as a possibility and it seems to fit with the small amount of info JLP have given us. Grovenor say on thier website that they used to send ore for processing at Zalco (?) which is near Sable.

CG

Agreed.

I think it's Mumbwa mine previously owned by Grovenor.

Seis,

Agreed. The Q1 update on 7th Nov last gave a projected figure of 520 copper units based on running Roan @ 75000tpm feed.

The company need to clarify whether the 75000tpm is the 1.6% feed (45k tpm), the 1.5% ROM from Project Phoenix / Project L (30k tpm) and/or taiilings.

I'd be looking for roughly 500tpm from Sable and 500tpm from Roan from April.

Is it too much to ask for clarification over the next few weeks?

Hope you did it each way!

That's probably not far off....

Just to be awkward, I'll go for copper 5750, PGM 37000 and chrome 2.2 million.

In theory, we're due a Q3 update around 13th April but that might be end April now.

I emailed the company on 6th Feb because the RNS wasn't clear.

The reply that I received on the 7th was marked private and confidential, which I'm old enough to respect and not repeat.

However, although you didn't hear it from me, zinc tailings were swapped for the batch of 200000 tonnes of 1.6% copper. My impression was that the $2.7m in shares was to buy the option of further purchases. Whether subsequent purchases will be made in cash, tailings or shares wasn't addressed. It will be interesting to see if they reveal more information in the next operations update.

Presumably the zinc tailings are from Kabwe? If so, they weren't going to be processed anytime soon by JLP.

Agreed Northern.

Zambian profits this year will utilise tax losses in prior years, I think.

That makes them more valuable. For example, US$10 million profit would be reduced by $2 million usually but I think it would be near zero in FY25.

Not huge amounts, but more cash available to be reinvested.

Hi Seisnav,

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I meant that the last line of Leon's comments on the 6th Feb RNS talked about an update 4 - 6 weeks after staring on the high-grade material. It was the 14th Feb RNS that announced the start.

I should have checked, didn't mean to cause confusion. My mistake.

CG

Agreed Gotreal.

The RNS did say that they would provide an update 4 - 6 weeks after Roan started the new material. That was 14th Feb, so we might not get a new RNS until 27th March.

If Roan gets up to 500 copper units per month, Sable is probably producing the same amount already, especially if that 6% material is being processed. A run rate of 1000 units per month is the first target. If further short term targets come on stream - leaching the stockpiled material at Monkoyo, new open pits, leaching at Roan - then the journey to 2000 tonnes per month is mapped out.

Ukbbbbbb,

We were due interim results 2 weeks ago. I suspect there is other information being finalised to distract attention from the numbers.

Because we already know the production figures for the six months, I'm not expecting great news. Disappointing levels of copper and PGM production offset by chrome. It will be interesting to see the copper margin because I think there would have been more cathode produced than concentrate in the period. Likewise with chrome - a 30% increase in production but a fall in the average price. What will the margin be?

There are perhaps 4 things that might be holding up the RNS announcing the results. The most likely is that they are assessing the throughput of the higher grade material at Roan. This is needed to update the full year forecast for copper production. (5000 - 6000 tonnes?).

Other possible announcements are:

1. Results of trials at Sable relating to 2 further open-pit acquisitions;

2. Further details of leaching low grade material at Monkoyo;

or 3. (just possibly) finally getting the deal with IRH sorted out.

Thursday 13th or Thursday 20th anyone?

I agree, Mikie.

Better a bird in the hand.....

We must be close to enough material to produce 100000 ounces of PGMs per year but we're only targeting 36000.

Leon said at the AGM that we had "7 years worth of PGMs stockpiled".

Cashjng in some of them via the JV with Northam makes sense to me.

Let's hope it's sustained, Mikie.

I calculate that the PGM basket price JLP receives is just over $1100 now.

I'm using the split that was in the WH Ireland (now Zeus ) note from Feb 2024, so it may need updating.