Member Info for ChesterGreen

Those 5 trades of over 1m shares weren't all sells yesterday.

13million in total and the SP only down 0.2%? Does that seem likely? At the same price,which appears as thoughit was the mid-price at the time?

13million is about eight times the 'usual' daily volume.

More likely imo 4 of the trades were some kind of housekeeping, moving shares more one account to the other. The small difference in quantity may be as a resultof the transaction cost.

It suits some agendas to characterise themincorrectly as 'sales'.

CG

I am interested to see how JLP will fund the purchase of additional copper refining capacity.

Leon C has hinted in the past that "a metals-based" source might be used. A royalty or an off-take agreement?

Then we have the Slater Investments information spotted by iluvise68 about the bank finance. ( I'd be willing to bet that this would be provided by SA banks as UK banks have become too lily-livered to invest in real projects.That'sa whole different topic!)

Then there is the following from the UK Government website (Gov.uk) concerning an announcement on 3rd August 2023 about a Zambia-UK Agreement:

" new ambitions set out today will build on the initial commitments made when the UK-Zambia Green Compact was signed in 2021 by the previous UK Minister for Africa, Vicky Ford and Zambian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Honourable Stanley Kakubo

the £2.5 billion target for private investments refers to UK private investors, supported by the UK government but not involving public funds or finance

the £500 million of UK-backed investment refers to blended financing, for example private investment including a component of UK public funding or finance

achievements under the Green Growth Compact already include over $100 million (over £78 million) mobilised for Zambian SMEs and a commitment of an additional $50 million (around £39 million) from British International Investment as a credit line for Zambia’s leading bank to boost climate finance and SMEs

the critical minerals memorandum is a partnership agreement that will provide UK support to Zambia’s efforts to maximise benefits from its own resources and help leverage foreign direct investment, including from the UK into Zambia, in support of responsible mining for minerals, which are key to the clean energy transition."

I wonder if JLP can take advantage of this?

Either way, it will be very interesting to see the details. Good news for all shareholders when it arrives.

CG

If the target for the Northern Refinery is Chambishi, there are a couplr of points that we need to bear in mind and / or hope JLP clarify for us.

Note 9 (Intangible assets), sub note 4 on page 122 of the 2022 Annual Report includes the following:

"At Project Elephant (Northern Refinery Strategy) Jubilee acquired a further 23% beneficial interest in the TD52 tailings dam portion of the overall project, increasing Jubilee’s interest to 80.75%. TD52 holds the highest contained copper and cobalt within the larger Project Elephant’s 114 million tonnes tailings resource at 0.7% Copper and 0.08% Cobalt."

That, as I interpret it, means that we (JLP) can expect 80% of some of the earnings.

Do we think that this superceeds the 75/25 Joint Operation (JO) agreements with Horizon Corpation Ltd and Horizon Mining Ltd, as decribed in note 13 (Other financial assets), sub notes 1 and 2 (pages 129 -130 of the 2022 AR)?

Also, the Zambian government (through ZCCM) currently hold a 10% stake in Chambishi which it would seem reasonable for that to be retained.

Would that mean JLP end up with 72% of the Northern copper earnings. (80% of the tailings partnership less a further 8% to ZCCM after refining)?

My point is that I don't think we can expect JLP to receive 100% of the earnings from the Northern copper starategy. This is not necessarily a problem as I think it much better to have 70% of a substantial amount than 100% of nothing.

CG.

HappyDays / No Excuses,

My thinking was also along the lines of a JV with Sibanye.

If the targeted refinery was a surplus Mopani facility, then a JV would make sense, especially if JLP could bring the Mufulira s la g project to the table. Unlocking the $2billion in copper and cobalt would be attractive if JLP already has a method of releasing the metals worked out.

However, this may no longer be an option because Sibanye are already thinking about bringing a Chinese firm into the Mopani picture and the JLP focus might be on the ERG-owned Chambishi Metals.

CG

Stargate,

South Africa speaks highly of you too!

Your post is another classic contribution from a technical analyst ('chartist'). Here in the UK, we are constantly reminded that "past performance is not a guide to the future" on every advertisement for financial services. This is only one of many reasons why I don't set ANY store by chartism.

Briefly, charts do not begin to tell the whole story:

1) Worldwide disruption to economic activity due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Do you expect this to be repeated?

2 ) Knock-on effects to global supply chains (aka 'Globalism'). Is there evidence that this is continuing?

3) An almost 50% fall in the selling price of PGMs, which used to make up the bulk of Jubilee's profits. If you read the last few posts, the production of Copper and (eventually) Cobalt will address this. They're from Zaambia, by the way. Not to mention Chrome, but perhaps you discount that as it's also from South Africa?

4} The power problems in South Africa are not confined to Jubilee, obviously. My South African friends on this board are better placed to comment on this, but I am reassured by the company announcing 60% of the chrome oprations having back-up supplies in place and that the PGM operation is within a high priorty grouping for electricity supplies.

Is that enough to be going on with?

If you don't want to buy JLP shares, that's fair enough. If I contributed to every BB for shares that I didn't want to buy, it would be a full-time job!

On the other hand, LTHs like me are FORWARD looking and therefore I don't think your comment is an accurate picture of the situaation at all.

CG.

On either Mopani or Konkola.

From the Lusaka Times:

https://www.lusakatimes.com/2023/08/01/unresolved-mopani-kcm-negotiations-raises-concerns/

I guess that this is holding up the Mufulira decision too.

It is nearly two years since the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)was signed with Mopani to kick-start the Northern copper strategy. Reading the article,I still think it might be the Mopani Kitwe facility that w go for, rather than Chambishi - but who knows?

Let's be ambitious and go for both!

(i'm joking, of course}

Regards

CG

Hello all,

I agree that this is a buying opportunity. After sitting on the sidelines (reading this BB) for several months, I've opened a small position this morning.

Two trades at 0833 and 0837, both buys but marked as sells! My broker was offering a decent price.

"This is the start of a beautiful friendship" - as they might have said if this were Casablanca.

GLA and regards,

CG

Thanks Seis.

Slightly off topic from JLP but I'll hope you'll forgive me. Is 'arbitrage' a forbidden activity in the Western financial world?

In the past, someone with (admittedly) deep pockets would be buying in London (via LME) and selling in Shanghai, thereby raising the price in the former and lowering the price in the latter. Over time, such transactions would equalize the price in both locations. I'm thinking Goldman Sachs (other finances houses are available too). Possibly there are some new fangled money-laundering rules that I dont know about that would prevent this from happening now.

Or possibly the free market Chinese authorities simply won't allow it!

Anyway back to JLP - let's hope the price we can acheive for Cobalt keeps recovering lost ground. Revenue (and profit) will be most welcome when PGM prices are struggling.

Regards.

CG

Up over 6%.

Since the recent RNS, I've been trying to workout the impact it might have. In volume terms, an increase from 1.25 million tons to 1.45m tons but in value it's equivalent to adding 1m tons.

From the WH Ireland note of December 2021- page 33:

“Revenues for the chrome plants are linked to a fixed margin to process the ROM. This is linked to a minimum yield of chrome (which we understand to be ~60%). Importantly, processing the chrome ore gives Jubilee the rights to the waste tails for the PGM content.

The fixed margin effectively pays Jubilee to pre-concentrate its ore and allow the recovery of the PGMs at its Inyoni plant. We set the fixed margin at R60-75/t ($4-5/t) – we use a higher figure for Inyoni where we account for the market price for the chrome recovered from its own tailings at market price in our overall net revenue figure of R135/t ($9/t); the majority of chrome produced is returned to Samancor.

Costs of buying ROM for Windsor 8 is set at R400/t at a chrome concentrate price of $135/t CIF 42% chrome. This will vary slightly according to source (MG or LG), with grade and with the CIF price for chrome concentrate (perhaps taking roughly 70% of the increase in percentage terms). We assume no change in ROM price in our model and, unless the CIF prices increase drastically, we don’t think it will have too much of an impact on our numbers. Any profits are shared between the JV partner and Jubilee (70% to Jubilee).

The operating cost for the chrome gravity plants is small – we vary this by plant but the cost is generally in the range R105-150/t ore processed ($7-10/t).

All of the Jubilee chrome plants are in an area close to each other – transport costs of PGM-bearing tailings is small and shared overheads keep costs to a minimum.”

Therefore, if the toll is increased fivefold, I'd expect to see it become R380 - R400 ($20 - $25). The initial annual earnings increase, based on 200000t would be $4 - 5 million, which would be applicable for FY2024 (at least in part). As I understand the timescale, JLP would expect to spend $8m expanding the facility to produce 390000t by June 2024. That would be $7.8m - $8m of earnings, from Year 2 ofthe Agreement.

This also appears to be a fixed rate, meaning that the earnings are not depending on the current rate of $250/t (source : Tharissa latest Half Year report).

Obviously, this is before the impact on PGM production. If my numbers are right, the Chrome credit would reduce the costs per ounce by a further $100 to $200, before the planned 10,000oz increase (eventually 19.5k ounces?)

It would be helpful if JLP could produce a breakdown of the chrome production to update the WHI note and keep us shaareholders informed properly. CG

Thanks Seis.

Without giving too much away,I've already researched how to raise an issue with City of London Police after BTs last campaigh of innuedo. I am confidant from that research that he is in danger of breachings UK laws.

CG

BushyTailed,

More wrong than ever. Your motivation is clearly to move the Share Price (down in this case). You are a trader and while I have no objection in principle to that, I strongly object to you posting incorrect information to facilitate you making a profit.

To quote your post: "JLP is suffering falling pgm production in a rising cost environment with no real cash at hand, if Leon doesn't surprise the market with 10k of copper and 1k of cobalt then this could easily go sub 4p a placing to dig themselves out of the copper mess would potentially wipe shareholders out at those kinda of prices."

JLP, even at these subdued PGM prices, is generating £20m of cash in a 6 month period. The fact is you won't acknowledge this because it doesnt suit your narrative.

Costs are not rising, the last report (6 months to 31 December 2022) actually showed a DECLINE in operating costs. There has been no capital expenditure reported in the current period other than perhaps $5m for the Roan re-start.

There is NO PROSPECT of a placing to provide working capital. There are 2 Revolving Credit Facilities in place,one for South Afican operations, one for Zambia. These have a capacity of $25m combined, more than adequate given the production of PGMs, Chrome, Copper and eventually Cobalt.

There MIGHT be a modest placing of new shares to help finance upcoming expansion, although management have indicated this would not be necessary. JLP is no longer a 'one-trick' pony and this means that options are available to finance the expansion, e.g. long-term debt (of which JLP has none). In such circumstances, current shareholdders will not be "wiped out", rather the company will invest in further profitable projects (the Northern Zambia Copper Strategy and/or the Mufulria Project).

You then make a comment which, while I'm in favour of free speech, is so outrageous that you should be held liable: "Death spiral finance awaits them and not to far round the corner either." You do not have the absolute right to use such immflatory language to attempt to influence the price of shares. There are UK laws against such behaviour and, even if you're not based in the UK, the City of London Police still have a long reach.

You cannot, imo, be posting such as you do for altruistic motives. Please stop. Your credibility on this Bulletin Board is close to zero, as the fact that most regular contributors have filtered you shows (that's why I've quoted what you posted).

CG

I don't want to spread more doom and gloom, but the 3 month price of cobalt fell 13.5%yesterday,I believe ($34930 down to $30195).

Does this mean JLP are right not to be producing any Co at the moment? Personally, I don't think so.

If the cost of production would be the $16 - 18,000 per ton that LC gave in past presentations, a margin of $10,000+ /ton would still be worth having, imo.

CG

I've filtered it too!

Enviro Processing is a Jubilee group company (Annual Report 2022, page 123) and to characterise JLP as loss-making is just pathetic. Don't keep embarrassing yourself, Bushy tailed.
CG

I suggest BushyTailed change it's (or his/her) name.

Perhaps Jiminy Cricket because it wants to be our collective conscience....

or

Pane (pain) of Glass because it is so transparent.....

Any tactic to try and create negative sentiment. I wonder why....?

(That's a rhetorical question).

Hi Bushy,

Please justify your assertion the JLP is "cash flow negative". Hint: you won't be able to.

Bushy,

With all due respect, you're wrong with both your capex point and your calculation of the feedstock at Roan. Consequently, I don't agree with your conclusions.
CG

Bushy,

Your making a mistake when you say ".... Continued investment of £24.1 m (US$28.4 m) in copper and cobalt expansions"
is still to be financed. The above quote relates to the 6months ending December 2022. It is the cost for establishing the Roan facility in the first place (and has been paid). The costs to expand Roan are still to come and probably won't be in FY23.

A placing of £20m would be necessary if JLP didn't have any revenue, but it does! That is why Leon has mentioned bank debt, "metal-based" finance and JLP's own resources as funding streams to satisfy future capital expenditure.

Also, when you're working out Roan being at 80% capacity, I think you're forgetting that it sounds like very little produced in Jan/Feb. So, 100% is 5k in six months; which becomes 3.66k in 4 months (taking out Jan/Feb) and only 80% in Mar & April reduces this further. From memory, the plan is to be back up to 100% in May.

CG

Many Thanks for posting your figures Seis. I have broadly similar.

I looked up the cobalt price on LME. I can only see a day behind (which is good enough for my purposes) and the price had fallen 14% in one day - to $41,685. It was $81,000 18 months ago, I think. Not material (because JLP are going to producr as a by-product) in the greater scheme of things but surprising, none the less. I will hae to revise down my estimates for H2 2023 onwards, of course.

CG