Member Info for ChesterGreen

Mph001

As shareholders of JLP (or any quoted company) we have the right to be offered new shares if the company wants to raise additional capital. This is what is meant by "pre-emptive rights". They might want to buy a new asset or a whole other company. There are limits to how many shares a company has and to how many they able to issue.

The proposal we're being asked to vote on is to give up our right as a shareholder to these newly issued shares and let the directors of the company decide how to use them. They then may offer them for sale for cash to institutional investors or wealthy individuals - called a placing. They are placing the shares with new or existing investors. Alternatively, they may use the shares by offering them in exchange for another company's shares if they want to buy that company.

The issue for shareholders to decide is whether or not giving directors the freedom to act in this way is acceptable or not. It gives directors the ability to act quickly without asking shareholders for a specific reason. On the other hand, it is a reduction of a shareholders rights. Decisions are what we pay directors for to take on our behalf.

I should say that it is common practice at Annual General Meetings (AGM) of quoted companies for such freedom to be asked for.

I have views on the subject but I don't think it's appropriate for me seek to influence you.

I will end by saying that JLP origininally proposed to seek this approval at the AGM in November. They withdrew the vote because they didn't think they would get approval at the meeting (I was there).

Hope that this helps.

CG

Thanks Urai5.

I was a shareholder in Anglo Pacific but sold out about 165p some time ago.

I'm back now with Ecora, buying too early @ 108p!

CG

In Liberia.

Does anyone with a long memory remember Anglo Pacific buying a NSR from Hummingbird (HUM) for $15m in 2019, I think?

HUM seem to have regained control of the project.

Any chance of getting the investment back?

Had some already.

I've bought a few more in the market, albeit on Friday.

Subscribed for a (very) few in the offer too.

I do think that BMN will make a bit of a recovery in 2024, so my average price of 2.6p will not look too bad.

I feel like I'm giving the new CEO a vote of confidence for the progress made so far.

GLA.

HD43,

I maybe clutching at straws, but I'm penciling in 200t of copper production at Sable for Q2 FY24 (Oct - Dec 2023).

It was previously stated by JLP in March that small miners might be responsible for 130t / month by Sable. In the presentation LC says that feed is being taken directly from Project M to Sable too.

Initially I thought Roan being interupted in this quarter might mean that zero copper would be produced, now I'm a bit more optimistic. 200 tons is not much, but better than zero. If 200t is produced, that would take the first half production to 1150t. Only another 4700 to go for the guidance of 5850t for the full year!!

I agree with someone who mentioned before that as the disruption to Roan has been plannned, JLP should have organised material to be processed through the cobalt circuit at Sable. Again,it wouldn'tamount to hugely profits but would offsetsome of the costs imo.

leon sounded very positive - no surprise there.

we were never going to get new information, so very much as expected.

on the copper modules, very positive that modules can be deployed to waste rock dumps and a concentrate be sent for refining at sable. project m + roan and 2 others ( glr luansobe?) will fill sable capacity. interesting that improved feed from these modular concentrators could increase sable's capacity beyond 14000t. copper sulphide sales additional to this. artisinal miners produce feed to sable currently but will eventually be displaced by the output from modules.

mopani disused refinery (at kitwe?) stilltargeted as northern strategy refining capacity. zambian govt to make a decision on mopani sale process "by the end of this calender year". mufulira **** project to be processed through this kitwe(?) facility.

2nd chrome module at thutse as mentioned before.

as others have said, slightly worrying mention of delays at ports when importing components of these modules.

i typed as fast as i could, so apologies if i'm repeating points others have made!

cg

I'd like to place a bet that we get a RNS either tomorrow or Friday but Ladbrokes won't take an each way bet!!

Our friends over on the Galileo Resources (GLR) noticeboard seem to think that Sable will be able to process ROM from their Luansobe open pit.

Unless it is project M, I don't see Sable having the capacity.

Maybe the JV with Mopani will be in line to help?

In time for Friday.

Has the large scale trial been concluded?

From the RNS from August 21st:

“… decision to immediately commence with the implementation of a bulk semi-commercial pilot facility at the Luanshya tailings facility which will be completed over the next 12 weeks. Results from the pilot trials, which target feed batches of approximately 500 tonnes at a time, will be used to confirm the design assumptions on scalability of the process flowsheet and to confirm final plant unit sizes. The bulk pilot facility is a critical final step towards confirming the design detail for the large-scale operational solution.”

The 12 weeks would be up this week.

CG

Edit, the last sentence should read:

"It is often used for lower-grade large sulphide deposits."

Sorry.

The whole passage can be found on the Antof a gasta website, Annual Report 2020. I think it's a useful starting point for non-technical people like me.

CG

The passage continues....

"In the case of leaching, also known as hydrometallurgy, crushed ore is usually

piled up and leached with sulphuric acid to create a copper sulphate solution

called a pregnant leach solution (PLS). The copper is then extracted in a

solvent-extraction and electro winning (SX-EW) plant to produce copper

cathodes. However, as oxide deposits are near-surface and being depleted,

production from this process route accounts for a lower and lower percentage

of total copper production.

Since SX-EW technology was developed in the 1960s there have not been

any new commercially-proven copper processing innovations. But this may

change. New technology appears to be able to leach copper economically from

previously unresponsive primary sulphides and recover it using a variant of

the SX-EW process route.

Confirmation of this technology would be a milestone in the treatment of

primary sulphides, which account for an estimated 70% of the world’s copper

production. It would allow for less capital-intensive processing, maybe even

using disused oxide SX-EW plants. This would represent a paradigm shift

for the copper mining industry."

Sable produces copper cathode via this SX-EW method in my understanding (source WH Ireland note from Dec 2021).

The Roan concentrator produces the fine rock from the 3rd party source but I'm notclear exactly where the leaching for oxides and/or sulphides takes place. I'd presumed at Sable.

The tailings seems a wholedifferent ballgame. Like you, I'd assumed it was dependent the refining capacity in the Northern Strategy being finalised. Maybe this new partership is to lower costs (less sulphuric acid), increase environmental sustainability and increase recovery rates.

Hope this helps.

CG

edzi / jonah,

thanks for starting this line of questioning. i'm by no means qualified to give a definitive answer but i thought i'd share the following taken from the anto***asta website:

"converting copper ores into metal.

copper ores are transformed into metal by concentration or leaching

technologies but a paradigm shift to treat primary sulphides may be on

the horizon.

it can easily take a decade, and often much longer, for a discovery to become

an operating mine. there are many stages in the assessment of a deposit,

during which greater certainty is developed about its composition and scale.

mining and metallurgical treatment plans have to be evaluated and tested and

a detailed assessment of environmental, social, infrastructure and political

factors completed before a decision can be made to develop the deposit into

an operating mine. most discoveries never make it beyond the early stages

of this process.

the optimal processing method for extracting copper depends on the deposit

type. porphyry copper deposits, which account for some 60% of global copper

production, are typically divided into three main ore types: copper oxides,

secondary sulphides and primary sulphides.

oxides are nearest the surface and are formed over millions of years from

primary sulphides weathered by the elements. secondary sulphides, often

called supergene deposits, are enriched with higher concentrations of minerals

leached from the oxide ore body above. the primary sulphides (hypogene) at

the bottom are unaltered and usually have lower grades of copper than the

secondary sulphides.

once a project is permitted and approved, it usually takes at least two years

for a mine to be built and start operation and permitting can take years

to complete.

copper production

copper is extracted from the ore and converted into pure metal, through two

processing routes: concentration and leaching. concentration is the main route

to process both primary and secondary sulphides and accounts for 80% of

total refined copper production. leaching, which is less capital intensive, came

into wide commercial use in the 1980s and, until recently, has only been viable

in treating oxides and sometimes secondary sulphides. by-products such as

gold, molybdenum and silver can be extracted using the concentrator route,

but not with leaching.

concentration involves crushing and grinding mined ore into a fine powder

and then separating the copper from the unwanted waste material in a froth

flotation process in a concentrator plant. the resulting concentrate contains

25-35% of copper and is sent, often by sea, to smelters for further processing

and then to refineries for refining into pure copper. if by-products such as gold

and silver are present, they can be extracted from the copper concentrate,

but molybdenum is processed into a separate concentrate. concentration is

capital intensive and benefits from economies of scale; it is often used for

lower-

Family commitments prevented me posting before now. Apologies.

My first JLP AGM. Nice to meet fellow shareholders and contributors here.

I echo the content of posts already made but add some personal perspective,if I may.

After the meeting I spoke with the Chairman about cobalt. In general terms, a market price of $40,000 would encourage a switch to the Co circuit at Sable from exclusively copper. Ollie pivoted the conversation to the opportunity of the Mufulira sl@g project which is, of course, significant.

I spoke to Tracey Kerr about the environmental aspects of the Zn/Pb/V tailings situation at Kabwe. I was reassured that the dumps are stable and that further contamination (Lead) is being mitigated as far as possible. Although commercial recovery of the resources wasn't discussed, my feeling is that it remains a future option but there are plenty of projects with higher priority.

My overall impression was that the meeting was well worth attending and I am cautiously optimistic about short term prospects for Jubilee. Chrome operations expansion, Roan upgrade and new modules, PGM probably more than 42,000 Oz via JV, Mopani / Mufulira project, etc,etc. The next twelve months should be very interesting.....

CG

My estimate:

Chrome

Increased price maintained throughout Q1 - 20% higher than Q1 FY23.

I think JLP sells 10,000 tons per month of Chrome on its own account. Total monthly revenue = 10,000 * $290 = $2.9m /month.

Tolling arrangements at ‘old’ rate: 100,000t / month @ $5 /t = $0.5m /month.

Thutse new chrome agreement. 60,000 tons targeted by December 2023, then 15,000t / month. Let us say we produced 8000t each month in the 1st quarter. LC has said in the past that the profit margin is $50 - $80 per ton on this contract (when the PGM content is included). Again, a cautious estimate of 8,000 * $40 = $320,000 / month additional profit.

Total chrome = $2.9m + $0.5m + $0.32m = $3.72m per month or $11.16m for Q1.

PGMs

Factors cancel each other out here. Targeted production in FY23 was 38,000 oz p.a. In the event, only 33,000 oz was achieved (via Inyoni) with 9,000 oz from the JV. I am assuming (?) the 42,000 oz target for FY24 is from Inyoni alone with an unknown contribution from the JV. (NB. The annual report gives me the impression that the JV will be used more in FY24 until our own PGM processing capacity is increased). So, I am assuming that the increased production is offset by a further decline in the basket price achieved.

Therefore, taking the basket price of $1048 /oz and the processing (+ transport) cost of $708 as per the Annual Report (pg 22), I calculate 3,000oz /month @ $440 = $1.32m / month. In turn, this is $3.96m for Q1.

Copper

By May 2023, the Southern Copper Strategy was supposed to be producing 550tons from Roan and 130tons from 3rd party suppliers per month. Let us assume it was run “flat out” in July – Sept 23 and therefore achieved 30% of that. Using the revenue and cost figures from the Annual Report, we get (680 * 30%) * (7451 - 5281) = 204 * 2170 = $443,000 per month. For the Quarter, $1.3m.

Cobalt – Nil (!)

From the above we get:

Chrome $11.16

PGM $4m (rounded up)

Copper / cobalt $1.3m = Q1 FY24 $16.6m total (Approximately £13.75m). Operating costs will be higher (new Thutse plant, but I don't think they will be outrageously more than FY23 Q1. For the sake of argument call it £5m.

£8.75m in the quarter, compared to 1st HALF FY23 – Adjusted EBITDA £11.8m.

Let's hope get a RNS which will put my ramblings into proper context. I think we will in the next couple of days (before the AGM). Sorry for the long-winded post, I find it easier to converse by spreadsheet- but I needed to explain my assumptions.

CG.

Kread

I agree in part.

The original RNS envisages £15m a year of profit from 50mw of plants. So far, they've only got 28.3mw to put into the JV, so they're not going to earn £15m a year.

The investors in the JV get 90% of the profit from the portfolio until the original investment (£30m) is recovered; thereafter it reverts to 75% / 25%. Assuming £7.5m in annual profit fro the portfolio, that means 4 years.

So MAST gets £7.7m and after 4 years 25% of a group of plants producing circa £7.5m in profit. Plus an annual management fee of circa £200,000. All the capex for the plants is coming from the JV partner.

Not as rosy a picture as some seem to think.

Not as bleak as you say either.

Is 25% the 28.3MW portfolio of plants better than nothing? Would the 4 plants currently 'in development' be built otherwise?

CG

Barring accidents, I'll be there too!

CG

I'd like to add my thanks for your excellent information too.

Thanks Seis

Now, about FY24......

The production figures were known in advance, so the operating profit came in much as I expected.

Much higher finance costs though but lower tax paid(!)

Cash balance higher - I thought they'd use it to pay down the RCF a bit more.

Overall, at first glance, pretty decent after the poor H1.

CG

This is the real clincher though, BT. You said:

"Posts: 2,844

Price: 11.25

No Opinion

RE: Looking for22 Sep 2023 17:24

On gold, I'm not surprised it's held up despite the rate rises.

If we consider that gold is a hedge against inflation then it's the spread between the fed rate and actual inflation rate we need to look at. Back when rates where sub 1% inflation was circa 3-4% then with the fed rate rising from 1 to 5% whilst inflation running at nearer 10% The loss on your risk free is now greater than it was before they started raising rates.

What is supportive of gold from here is the fact that inflation is generally costs related, so as the dollar falls in value on the back of lower global trade, the cost pressures for the US climb exponentially.

Americans who have been complaining about inflation over the last 2 years haven't seen anything yet. Cheaper dollar means cheaper prices for everyone else. Would not be surprised if we see a 1.75 euro and a 2 dollar sterling come the peak of this cycle.

All time highs in gold will make trades like HUM a once in a generational opportunity.

FRES, CEY, HUM and SHG for me, which imo are also currently some of the UK's cheapest equities."

Leaving aside all the other questionable statements, "a 2 dollar sterling come the peak of this cycle", is the worst opinion I have seen recently. Never mind what would happen to Hummingbird and Jubilee, a 60% fall in the value of the US dollar against sterling wouldbe disasterous, not only for USA.

A little bit of thought before typing please.

CG

In May, you said the following on HUM:

"Posts: 2,844

Price: 17.00

No Opinion

RE: Topped up23 May 2023 10:15

This is going to 60p over the next 6 months Ripley."

To be clear HUM has gone from 17p when you posted that to 8.1p today.

Who thinks you can count (apart from you)?

* them incorrectly