Member Info for ChesterGreen

Bob,

I think copper production for Q1 is more likely to be 500 tonnes. I'll be happy if you're right though.

Roan started processing low grade material in August and at 60% capacity. How much in tailings is unclear.

Was all the Monkoyo material processed in Q4? Maybe some of the 80000t was held back?

Some trial material from Project G, but the question is how much?

CG

Fine. Looking forward to it.

I'm planning to be at the AGM too.

Don't let that put you off - the more people that are there the more questions that are answered.

Should be "i'm trying to work out the effect of that too". Sorry

Seis,

I'm trying the effect of that too.

My thinking is that the transfer of costs between PGMs and chrome might have coincided with the renewal of the relevant contracts in February, so not for the full period.

As I understand it, the fixed margin contracts offer a $5 margin after the costs are covered. For the sake of argument, let's say there are 1 million tonnes of chrome concentrate produced under the fixed contracts. Adding $9.9 million of costs would add $10 to the price per tonne the partners have to pay - which is not unreasonable if they're currently receiving $270 per tonne.

This would also mean that next years' figures would have that $9.9 million extra gross profit "baked in" (all other things being equal).

I also think that it makes each ounce of PGMs more profitable. If the average revenue per oz is $1009 and the average cost $709, each ounce is $300 (gross) profitable. Again, an extra 1000 oz produced would add $3 million to the EBIT. I think we also agree that the PGM basket price is heading up too.

CG

I think that when the FY24 results are released, chrome will show a $25 million (£20 million) profit. Therefore, I'd say yes, there is scope to install a 3rd module at Thutse.

Q1 is almost done too. Output of chrome concentrate will be higher than the comparable Q1 because it will include an extra 2 months of the Thutse #1 module (+30000 tonnes). Average prices for 40-42% chrome concentrate would be about the same, if not slightly higher.

All my own calculation, so treat with caution!

CG

I came across this article yesterday: https://www.miningweekly.com/article/firm-says-there-are-risks-but-also-opportunities-with-new-zambian-mining-laws-2024-09-18

If the Bill becomes law, will it affect the new strategy of establishing regional hubs to process ROM from open-pit mines?

Would it still be profitable if Jubilee didn't own the operation (e.g. Monkoyo)?

Were Jubilee aware of this possibility, hence trying to secure mines now?

CG

Agreed.

Well done Nelson.

CG.

Mikie

I think Thutse3 is being delayed in order to get 2 modules to be in place at the WRP by the end of December 2024.

Hopefully we'll get an announcement to that effect in the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, the addition of Thutse2 leads me to increase my forecast by 200000t of chrome concentrate production for FY25, taking it to 1.75m tonnes. (1.2m tolled - 0.55m 'own' chrome).

CG

Agreed JLPp.

In 12 months time we'll all be wondering what the fuss was about.

I don't expect much change in the Final Results for the period just ended but next year they could easily double. I bought a few more today (although it shows as a sell).

News about the Waste Rock Project in the next month? Production figures for Q4 next week? Roan finally up and running....? Production guidance for the next 12 months?

Lots to look forward to.

CG

I found the WH Ireland note from February 2024 on the Jubilee company website. It may always have been there, but I've not noticed it. It is found under: investors, corporate documents, broker notes.

As Seis mentioned recently, it is a useful basis from which to view the company and the future prospects.

CG

I think there are two parts to Munkoyo (Project M).

The original RNS (Nov 2023) mentioned previously mined waste rock on the surface, This may be the 80,000 tonnes graded at 1.5-3% Cu, that is being sent to Sable from this month.

The open-pit future ROM material will need a 25000tpm module to be installed at a yet to be specified future date. Whether the grade of this material is 3-4% or 1.5-3% is not clear to me, Better to assume the lower figures, imo, until we know.

CG.

Whisper it quietly but....

ERG are raising up to $1 billion by forward selling their copper output from the DRC mines.

Personally, I'd be very unhappy if they made a bid.

Maybe it is for them to bring Chambishi Metals back into production.

CG

the tailings and mufulira **** project will make a small contribution to the total too, over the next 3 years.

The information in December 2023 that we were given is that "the capacity to manufacture 3 modules at once".

At the moment, there is one module being costructed at Thutse. By my reckoning, that could mean that 2 modules have been manufactured in South Africa and are ready to be deployed to Zambia.

The number of modules to come (of varying sizes - that we've been told about so far) is seven. There were 4 modules for the WRP, 2 for Thutse and 1 for Munkoyo. Another small module for the new small open pit. Maybe additional ones will be requiredfor the WRP or the open pit projects.

It would be nice to think that the capacity had been increased.

Either way, although Roan is delayed, the WRP is not delayed because we haven't had a schedule published!

Being optimistic, I hope that they can't broadcast until another RNS has been released!

Is this the same OB1?

zumran.com/ob1-operational-site/

If it is, maybe the area SP06 mentioned @ 13mt is the target for the 4 modules? About 5 years work.

I think 60% GLR ownership of a contractor operated Luansobe is very optimistic. For a start, Statunga own a quarter - so that 60% would become 45%.

Also, why would a contractor take all the financial risk (capital expenditure) but settle for a minority of the profit?

For clarity, I have a modest holding both in Galileo and Jubilee Metals (JLP) as I'm sure others do. Perhaps an example of what JLP have been doing provides a guide to what Luansobe open pit is worth?

JLp have recently agreed to take on a mining operation at Monkoyo - for $1.5million.

There hasn't been a comprehensive resource definition (yet) published but several clues have emerged.

Annual gross mined rock 240000 tonnes - about half of what is expected at Luansobe.

Grade at 2% - double Luansobe.

Estimated annual production - 4250 tonnes copper units. A copper unit is either copper cathode or copper sulphide in a concentrate, which is sold to a smelter. Luansobe will be similar, total annual production 5800 tonnes (perhaps).

Capital cost of a 20000t/month concentrator ("module") - $3 million.

Average price for copper unit in H1 FY24 - $6600 (split 50/50 between $8214copper cathode and about $5000/t copper sulphide concentrate). With the 3 month price of copper now at $10000, I'd expect the average price per unit to have risen to $7500. From the RNS of 9/2/23 announcing the JORC resource definition for Luansobe, I think the cu is 40/60 in the open pit - so the average price achieved will be lower than the $7500 currently.

Life of Mine not currently disclosed for Monkoyo (other than "many years") - about 10 years at Luansobe.

In short then - $1.5 million for an open pit production of half as much gross tonnage but (because of the higher grade),about 75% of the net copper annual production. All of the ongoing capital expenditure and a similar LOM.

Has JLP got a real bargain or is it a sign of what the open pit component of Luansobe is worth?

It's not an exact match and my calculations may be wrong but I think the current expectations of value are too high.

Happy to be proved wrong.

CG

I agree the exact situation is not clear.

My understanding is the 13000t capacity at Roan is split 60/40 between Cu sulphides and oxides

Approx. 8000 tons of sulphide concentrate will be sold into the market while 5000t will be refined into cathode at Sable.

Capacity at Sable is given as 16000t, after the upgrade to the sulphides circuit, split 75/25 - so 12000t oxide(cathode) and 4000t sulphides.The Sable sulphides will, I think, come from the Monkoyo feed.

That means that total production (at full capacity) is 24000t (the full 16000t at Sable plus 8000t of sulphide from Roan).

The above is my interpretation but happy to be corrected.

CG

It could be a good week:

1) Roan concentrator in production;

2) Details of IRH JV update*;

3) refinance of Revolving Credit Facility and/or introduction of longer term debt for SA operations.

* In addition to the $1.75m initial payment for the Waste Rock Project, I think the first payment of $5.6m was due in March ("quarterly payments beginning 75 working days after the initial payment"). Together with the costs for defining the resources, this could mean a repayment of almost $10m to Jubilee.

Any or none of this may happen, but it may explain the SP going up in the last couple of days.

CG