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That's why no one's singing and shouting about it. Theyre loading up and about a week after they stop all the paid nobhead will start releasing their articles saying how good emmerson is and how much "research they've done on it in 2 days.
Same old.
Reality is its mega cheap at the moment due to macro economics, war, poor liquidity in the market and low confidence. If when we get the ESIA IT will be 12 to 19p in short order.
I do t want to jinx it but having been here for nearly 4 years . I can see this rising steadily to between 6-7 p . With the news EML has put out and the potential…….having viewed other c@#p on the AIMs …even though I’m a novice . Surely this has to be one of the better stocks . It was originally on the LSe before it came over to AIM .
Whether that’s a good point … I don’t know
It reacted bullishly because of RNS dropping with water saving process. Got it. When you can predict RNS release, you will have a system. Not this load of twaddle,
People exhibit patterns of behaviour which do repeat themselves - so charts do have some place.. Charts cannot predict events, but they can help understand the reaction to them etc. but on low volume AIM stocks they're of very limited use IMO because there aren't enough participants in the market for patterns of herd movement to really manifest themselves in the movement of the share price.
The recent RNS is indeed overwhelmingly positive and the SP appears to be reacting accordingly. It does however pose a number of questions with regards to both the convenient timing and content.
For starters we have the Technical Team who, whilst twiddling their thumbs awaiting the permit to land, have knocked out a new, ground breaking, industry changing, patent pending processing route (KMP); not to belittle this achievement but can the MA, if and when the KMP hopefully lands on their desk, just accept this 60% water reduction at face value. Is it definitive or still unproven in practice and hence requires further testing etc. Can the ESIA simply be revised and subsequently approved (mid-appeal) off the back of a scoping study in the absence of any further information.
We then have the timing in respect to noises coming out from OCP. Is this a nudge RNS to National to say we are still here and by the way we could be of huge importance to you one way or another.
Final point is our provisional funding from Singaporean investors was based on an IRR of 40% in the PFS. This would have fallen to circa 25% based on inflationary pressures. However, conveniently it is now back at exactly 40% by incorporating the KMP !
Not going to complain about the recent SP rise nor indeed the recent RNS. However trying to intuitively predict how this all plays out is nigh on impossible; far too many moving parts and left wondering how much is being held back in terms of "informal" discussions with National/OCP.
With regards to charts if you want answers as to thwir accuracy just go to any of Swazers other Posts on other stocks. If the price action doesnt follow the charts path then you know theyre as useless as horoscopes. If the majority of them do then you know theres at least some use from them. Personally I dont care for them myself as there is way to many particulars and variables for me to put any trust in them.
I added some extra context to my #EML chart I hope it helps. The good news is that the SP continues to move bullishly and offer confirmation of the idea. https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1754824903541367037?s=20 https://www.tradingview.com/x/GjDmdhml/
IMHO the OCP interest in Potash is that it would allow them to produce a higher value product.
Morocco has Potash, Phosphates and Natural Gas. So will be in a good position to export all three as Combined [NPK - Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potassium (Potash)] fertilizers. This would create more value added and would provide another sales route for OCP.
https://www.fertilizerseurope.com/fertilizers-in-europe/how-fertilizers-are-made/
I can’t decide if it’s a good or a bad thing that OCP are developing a mine in the same region as EML at the same time. Why now?
Good spot 99icecream! Since seeing Hayden present in September 2018 when I first bought in I’ve always thought OVP would play a part in EMLs future. Whether a buy-out or something else was the question. Maybe you’ve found a possible link? If so, one would hope that if OCP are going to use EMLs new process it would grease the wheels under the ESIA considering that OCP = the Moroccan government.
IMHO - This suggests to me that OCP are faced with the same issues regarding water use and have also been attempting to improve their processing methods.
Okay, you're refusing to explain it so. I don't know if your chart is good. From looking at some of the other posts here, it doesn't appear like I'm alone in this thinking.
No one has asked for a long video. Just a simple explanation.
FWIW !
It seems a remarkable coincidence that OCP launches their Khemisset Potash mine (23 Jan) within 8 days of the EML RNS on 1st Feb. This comment in the article on the OCP launch was particularly interesting:
"This program intends to develop innovative processes for ore treatment, optimize water usage, and improve the use of liquid and solid waste products"
https://en.hespress.com/78552-ocp-launches-potash-project-in-khemisset-in-bid-to-expand-food-security.html
@stewie8 I let my charts do the talking, when a chart is good it does need to be" explained" with endless words. I would have to record a long video to explain the minutiae. My chart is self-explanatory for the most part.
I am offering my charts from a purely technical aspect. The main thing is that the SP is moving in harmony with my idea. Here is another key level for #EML 3.5p >>>>>>>> https://www.tradingview.com/x/zHuNi67k/
There were so many positives to take from last weeks RNS. The one thing I can't get my head around is that surely a future date has to have been set now for the next meeting of the Government ministers. These meetings aren't just decided upon a couple of days or even weeks in advance but will be scheduled months ahead in order for preparatory works to be undertaken.
The new KMP process doesn't just shave a few percentage points off the water usage but more than halves it, that's seriously impressive to say the least. I've always been suspicious that dark forces have been at play with regards to the ESIA approval process. If we get knocked back now having undertaken the scoping works and presented a whole new process to counteract environmental concerns then something is seriously wrong. Let's hope my suspicions are unfounded.
Would love to see this tick back up around the 4-5p mark and then the esia approval drop. We can live in hope can't we.
FWIH - I had a couple of observations.
Firstly, there is much more processing of the Brine which obviously increases the Cap Ex. But the saving of Cap Ex on the DWI more than compensates.
Secondly, there are obviously benefits to working closely with OCP. EML will be a buyer of DAP for the production of Struvite - OCP are the obvious sellers. Also, OCP would see massive advantages in using Khemisset Multi-mineral process on their OCP Khemisset Potash mine.
Just a couple of snippets from the new study, that were interesting.
There are now plans for 4 declines instead of 2, which makes sense given the amount of extra struvite/vivianite (882mtpa), which will be coming out of the ground.
The other big take is the water reduction & for the first time we now have figures on just how much the project will use.
Previous FS had assumed 139m3/hr new KMP process 56m3/hr so that's the 60% cut, but then there is the saving on the DWI on the last FS it estimated 20million m3 over the mine life (so roughly just over 1m m3 per year). With the new process that is now zero.
So that is a massive positive on water, the only disadvantage environmentally is more trucks will be needed to ship the salts to port.
GLA
Still haven't answered @GW62's question really. Can you provide any more insights instead of just posting the chart?
You had a pop at the poster earlier and said that 'All that matters with TA is the data'. Yet @Corryvreckan1 has pointed out one major flaw with your data source.
@Corryvreckan1 I did and thank you so much. Sorry, I have been mega busy. Also sometimes one has to let the price move and do its thing as it develops.
Did you see my post below on 19 Jan 2024 at 22:05? Trading View still have earlier data that is irrelevant to Emmerson.
It's nice to see the price moving according to my TA idea. I have always enjoyed charting #EML. I am not invested myself but I wanted to share my charts. So far so good. Here is today's tweet and links to my daily charts https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1754451585923526842?s=20 https://www.tradingview.com/x/0iICeaSn/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/gv7OCkzC/
Interesting large scale excavation, complete with heavy earth moving equipment. Rough estimate c350m x 80m and around 800m to the east of the main target zone at the bottom of EMLs planned decline.
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@33.8112973,-5.9146611,1946m/data=!3m1!1e3?hl=en-GB&entry=ttu
May be irrigation/plantation related - similar to the area just to the south-west of it? Further evidence of attempts to manage a way through the drought?
Or [insert conspiracy theory here]... ;o)
Have just watched both interviews. I am now the most confident I have been for over 7 months which I admit is not saying much.
It is a positive development, as was the update on costings which given inflation was not to much of an increase.
If we ever get the ESIA then the already sound economics have indeed approved.
No doubt the new process will be taken into account when the decision is taken, or feedback is provided as Graham said, so I don't think anyone needs to be concerned that this will not form part of the assessment made by the Moroccan government.
Also clear this has been done to take steps to ensure we get the ESIA over the line. I would like to hope it does and soon, however GC gave no indication at all as to when he expects to hear feedback.
Ferrisc, have a look at the posts below summarising the local law on environmental permits, which bears a staggering resemblance to the ministerial commission the Graham speaks of:
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/ideas/?page=6
You are quick to say that Testpack's comments are 'made up', but there's substantiation that lines up with them, as set out above and I haven’t seen any substantiation for the view that you are putting forward.
Perhaps you could elaborate on your own position so that we know that's not just 'made up' as well?
My own take meanwhile is that:
- they were refused and appealed;
- they've been left hanging and are too afraid to bring any legal challenge; and
- this is all done on handshakes, so that if they come back and the man from del monte says 'Yes' then it will all go through whatever the process and same in reverse (us currently being in the later camp - the man from del monte has been 'unable' to say yes).
More made up rubbish from you testie. The first two definitions of ‘unable to approve ‘ on a Google search are;
“unable to approve" is correct and usable in written English. You would use it when expressing that you are not able to approve of something”
and,
“to lacking the necessary power, ability, or authority (to do something)”