The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Well Sloppy you call the raise spot on, good call.
Its disappointing having to raise at this level, but at least most shares go into sticky II hands.
GC mentions in today's interview that the new application will go in very soon, lets hope so. Its then according to a CRUI flow sheet either a 90day wait or 30day wait if they treat it as a review.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viTNBglFGJ8
The KMP process will not work for all potash miners as the minerals that make up the potash differ between mines.
The potash mix in Khemisset is, carnallitic and rinneitic this process won't work for other mineral deposits.
One down side of the Khemisset mine are the impurities that meant that the processing needed an extra stage pre KMP to remove magnesium (Mg) and iron (Fe).
Now with KMP those impurities have been reprocessed to produce new fertilizers.
If you follow most AIM miners, the one word you hear most often from the BOD is 'soon'
but building mines in Africa is a slow process & often the BOD are more or less as much in the dark as investors as to what is holding the project up.
Currently we know the decision on the permit is back with the local CRIU, if we follow their flowsheet Emmerson should hear a decision within 90 days.
Hopefully the paperwork including the KMP is back in, however they may be waiting for the revised DFS, which is being redrawn, as the whole project has grown & changed completely.
While Sunday browsing (which invariably sends me to investments & Emmerson), I came across this bit of news posted on a Khemisset forum.
The post is dated March 11th (the same day as the RNS on ESIA referral back to the CRUI.
Abdullah Bouano, the head of the Justice and Development Parliamentary Group in the House of Representatives, asked the government why it was late in granting environmental approval to the “Potash” project, which was licensed by the British company Emmerson PLC” in the Khemisset region.
In a written question addressed to Leila Benali, the Minister of Energy Transition, speeding up the environmental licensing of this 19-year project.
This project is expected to invest a total amount of about 2.5 billion dollars during this period, and it is expected to create about 2,000 job opportunities in Morocco.
According to Buano, the company “waited to receive environmental approval during the second half of last year 2023 but the relevant ministerial committee has not recovered for that purpose.”
The translation isn't 100% but it looks as though at least one minister is interested in getting the mine up & running.
They are currently running soil trials with the new fertilizers, before it is Incorporated into a new DFS. That DFS should also increase the mine life & tonnage they will be pulling out of the ground, which all should raise the SP from it's current lows. That is the next bit of news I am expecting & hopefully the ESIA shortly after. Raising before either would not make sense unless as you suggest they need to. GC also mentioned cutting back work streams hopefully to conserve cash.
Sloppy, they don't need to raise, EML has enough money to last them through to 2024 according to the broker.
"Emmerson currently has US$3.5m of cash, sufficient for 'at least’ the next 12 months", added the broker. (Jan 2024).
That £26k buy @ 2.65 has just tipped the scales (only showed up just after you posted).
Hopefully next week will be the last week to buy below 3p.
Have a good weekend all.
99 Ice, agreed.
The water use on the previous ESIA was a decent amount, roughly an Olympic swimming pool every 2hrs. EML over came this by using waste water so that ticked that box but the next issue became the tailings & DWI of the brines.
Again it is understandable why local farmers may have been concerned, potash mines have been known to decimate the soil (salt), around the mines if they are not dealt with correctly & there is a small river nearby which I am sure they may have also worried over with salt contamination.
These issues, have with the new process been delt with, the only negatives I can see from the new process is road traffic as the amount produced with the new fertilizers has doubled.
I expect the next news will be an updated DFS, with the new process incorporated, landing sometime this month. With most of the ESIA application remaining the same, I would expect it to land within 90days.
GLA
This is welcome news, they are not asking for a new ESIA, it isn’t starting from scratch.
Emmerson will now resubmit the ‘EIA’ so that excludes the social side. Most of the data remains the same the major difference is obviously the water & no DWI.
EML don’t need to raise currently they have enough money until the end of the year, hopefully this is now resolved within the next few months.
Hopefully some have now read the note. I have been investing in miners for the last 15yrs & seen numerous research notes but this is easily the best one I have read.
Not only does it deal with the financials but it also goes further into the new fertilizers EML have in Struvite & Vivianite.
A couple more interesting nuggets from the note include,
Finance wise at the end of 2023 Emmerson had around $2m left.
Suggestions on a raise, post ESIA (8p+), need around $6m to see them through to financial close.
Crop trials of the new fertilizer are taking place, results in an upcoming FS.
The FS will/may also extend mine life as well as giving lower cut off grades making it possible for larger mining machinery to be used producing extra amounts of potash.
There is a possibility of processing Struvite into Dittmarite, which is a more expensive fertilizer.
EML could also blend MOP with struvite to create a multi mineral fertilizer.
Vivianite 'could' have the potential to be used in LFP lithium batteries.
As I said it really is an interesting read & worth having a look at if you are invested here.
not sure how many of you have seen it but there is a new research note out today from liberum. it's a hefty 27p document. unfortunately the link i received has expired but i can give you some of the highlights.
the main highlight being calling the kmp process as 'game changing" & raising the short term target from 11.5p to 17.8p
https://*********************/companies/uk/industrial-metals-nonferrous/emmerson-plc/research/liberum/liberum-emmerson-kmp-game-changer/1_1020571
Goldbar,
Yes it is taking forever, that said this new process using 60% less water and no DWI has only been known for the last month & there isn't a DFS for this method (something we may have to do before receiving the ESIA which would also be a good time to reassess the resource which should be higher with this new method), although if they do request this hopefully GC can RNS it so we can see they are getting somewhere.
Nice to see a good blue finish to the day.
Aghmir, well said, I have a mate who's Russian & sent him a screenshot of the earlier conversation, he nearly spat is coffee out lol.
Older generation Russians, blame any unexplained event on the British, they call us the old fox.
If anything has held up the ESIA it's almost certainly water & waste water.
The drought in Morocco is in its 4th year & this years rainy season isn't rainy.
Only recent mention on timescales I can find is this from the recent mining event Emmerson attended.
"What are your key goals for the next 3, 6 and 12 months?
3 Months:
Receive environmental permit and finalise optimisations
6 Months:
Negotiate financing and supply agreements
12 Months:
Begin construction at Khemisset"
https://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-cape-town/emmerson-plc/
I have just listened, I think you are misunderstanding what he says,
he is replying about the key milestones coming up in the next 6-12mths, so EISA & BFS.
Ideas, have a look at the link below. It is from 2021 but the text reads & sounds like it is the committee we would have been referred to.
"This meeting was devoted to the study of appeals filed by investors concerning the decisions of the Unified Regional Investment Commissions (CRUI),"
https://www.maroc.ma/fr/actualites/le-chef-du-gouvernement-preside-une-reunion-de-la-commission-interministerielle-de
Last weeks news of the new process has hopefully changed the landscape. If you have a look at the last presentation you can see the amount of water EML wanted to use & how much it now saves. Have to say I was surprised by just how much water the original process needed (139m3 per hr), just for comparison an Olympic sized swimming pool has around 375m3.
Thinking back to the original application the changes to using waste water, dry tailings & now the process to save far more water must be beneficial to obtaining the permit.
This isn't the committee meeting EML's fate is to be decided.
The committee meeting EML are waiting for is the,
the Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage (''Ministerial Committee'' or the ''Committee'')
Just a couple of snippets from the new study, that were interesting.
There are now plans for 4 declines instead of 2, which makes sense given the amount of extra struvite/vivianite (882mtpa), which will be coming out of the ground.
The other big take is the water reduction & for the first time we now have figures on just how much the project will use.
Previous FS had assumed 139m3/hr new KMP process 56m3/hr so that's the 60% cut, but then there is the saving on the DWI on the last FS it estimated 20million m3 over the mine life (so roughly just over 1m m3 per year). With the new process that is now zero.
So that is a massive positive on water, the only disadvantage environmentally is more trucks will be needed to ship the salts to port.
GLA
Https://www.emmersonplc.com/investors/corporate-documents/
There is a new presentation, to have a look at.
I am glad to see the latest RNS has gone down well, there is of course a huge elephant in the room, but this new process can only help & not hinder the progress. Lets hope its already on the committees desk.
GLA
Aghmir,
"Emmerson is still awaiting the session of the Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage (''Ministerial Committee'' or the ''Committee'') to obtain environmental approval"
According to the last RNS.
As for the 30 day appeal, I have never thought EML were refused the permit & so the appeal process isn't valid.
If you listen to what GC said he said the committee could not make the decision.
It's the same with the reasons for the delay, we were always told water, but its not the water supply that has worried the officials , it's the waste water containing the salts & there worry over contamination, which is resolved with the dry tailings method EML are going to use now.
GW62, reagrding Rob Butler he tweeted this on the Tuesday 23rd
"Excellent meeting today with
@AmbHHajoui
.In sectors from aerospace to automotives, green power to potash, and with FIFAWorldCup"