Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
ESIA permits are not a yes or a no. This document goes back & forward several times between the ministry & Emmerson. It's just a question of when not if.
One possible reason is something I have mentioned before, what if Emmerson want the current agreement with the Singapore consortium to expire?
I am not saying we already have the ESIA but it may be that the final sign off may well be post 30th September. Why? We may well have found a better financial backer.
By not having the ESIA there would be no reason to RNS or hide anything & it would explain the radio silence.
Just a thought.
There isn't a yes or no on an ESIA, it's a document which will have been back & forward a few times between the ministry & Emmerson. Reading between the lines it looks as though water was the very first issue followed by transportation impact assessment & lastly tailings storage. Emmerson took someone on in April whose sole task is licencing agreements.
As for the conspiracy theories regarding the Moroccan gov and/or OCP, if they didn't want Emmerson to own the mine they would not have issued the mining licence back in 2021. That would have been the time to stop the project not by means of the ESIA & think what holding us back would do to the reputation of Morocco as a mining jurisdiction (2nd best in Africa), if they had withheld for no reason. I am sure Emmerson would not have been as positive over the Moroccan gov if this was the case. It's a frustrating waiting game the rules over the ESIA changed in 2021 & it might be that both parties are getting used to the 154 steps required for sign off.
I am holding patiently, for good news. GL.
Kierwiet, good post, yes it looks as though you may be right.
I was thinking along the lines that the necessary actions may already be in place but the final meeting to confirm may have been set for October.
We are unfortunately left guessing without news but there may well be reasons as to why there is silence & things may be progressing well behind the scenes. GL
What if there is a deal in place with OCP or others & the one issue holding it up is the funding we got from the Singapore consortium?
We may have been offered better terms & be running down the clock (30th September), before announcing anything.
Just a thought as to why, which would be a reason for the radio silence.
Also worth a watch if you have not already seen it from March 2022 again.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=emmerson+potash&&view=detail&mid=1164CBB8E647994335411164CBB8E64799433541&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Demmerson%2Bpotash%26FORM%3DHDRSC3
Worth re-reading the latest (March 2022), research note.
" Valuation update. We have updated our model and valuation. Although the Khemisset
project metrics have not changed, we have updated our numbers to reflect pricing and the
inclusion of SOP amongst other changes. Given that Khemisset is nearing construction, we
switch to a blended NAV/EBITDA forward-looking exit valuation approach. Our previous
17.6p/sh estimate of fair value is replaced by two metrics; a pre-production average of
19.9p/sh including funding considerations and a production stage average of 56.3p/sh. We
use $450/t MOP for these numbers and thus the potential upside versus current pricing is
obvious. Thus, we currently see 2.8x upside to the current share price at the pre-production
stage and 8x at a fully ramped up production phase"
https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Shard-Capital-EML-25-3-2022-R-1.pdf
The local company will be the Emmerson 100% owned subsidiary "Moroccan salts Ltd" Not sure if this is just a referral to the mining licence as there isn't a mention of Environmental.
I am not so sure that's the reason for the hold up. If they wanted OCP to be involved the time to do this would have been at the awarding of the mining licence. ESIA's are big deals these days & getting hold of them as we have seen can be difficult.
I have not had direct talks with the bod but from what I see & read is that the process of awarding the licence involves the ministry coming back to Emmerson on differing issues, water was highlighted last year & since then the other aspects appear to be the traffic & air pollution survey & tailings waste disposal. Back in April Hajar was brought in specifically to deal with permits & approvals, so hopefully most of what needed to be resubmitted has been.
I have only held Emmerson since March & I understand the frustration of all holders but mainly the long term guys.
What Emmerson could do is built excitement & interest in the project, (which may give a push to the government to get on with things) could be things like a jobs fair in the local area demonstrating the types of jobs that will be available, invite local officials to the site & explain to them the benefits to the local community. With a high unemployment rate I am sure the interest for jobs is there.
In answer to the exploration potential the current Jorc is calculated within only 40% of the total licence area explored so plenty of upside, not forgetting the neighbouring OCP licence areas which would make the area of exploration huge.
A good update, there is plenty to do before the actual mine can be started & it sounds as though they have been busy. Also good news that there are no known objections on the issue of the environmental permit.
Not long before this moves permanently into double digits, but hopefully just enough time for me to top up!
Hopefully we are only a few days away from an update. I will be interested to hear about the progress pre mining, (electrics, water etc). Looking back through the previous updates I wonder just how close we are now to the environmental permit.
My guess is the further drill hole for underground tailings storage may have been something they have requested from EML earlier this year. Hopefully this has now being answered.
Hi not sure if it has been posted but the annual report is now available on the Emmerson site.
https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Emmerson-Annual-Report-2021.pdf
A good video interview of the recent Orion Capital note, with pre production SP 46p in production 1.10pps, (these figures do not take into account Russia/Belarus shortages in the forecast).https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/976345/emmerson-plc-trading-at-an-unjustifiably-cheap-price-analyst-976345.html
@OnlyOneShareMe,Thanks, for sharing a very interesting article.The latest Emmerson presentation is now available (dated May 2022), a couple of interesting notes I picked out were,The Geological drilling campaign for decline alignment has been finished.& the reserve classification now has a number to it of another potential 109mthttps://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Indaba-2022-Presentation.pdf
Not sure if this has already been posted or not, 09/05https://medias24-com.translate.goog/2022/05/09/khemisset-potash-project-le-point-avec-les-dirigeants-de-la-societe-miniere-emmerson/?_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
Not sure if this is the one you mean from the Mail.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-10746045/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Potash-thats-NOT-Russia.html
Hello, just dropped in to say hello.
I have made a long term investment here over the last 6 weeks.
I have emailed the board with a view to speaking to some of the team after the Easter break & possibly meeting them later in the year.
Best wishes to all fellow investors.