Member Info for Beyondthesea

Unfortunately no, email from another investor.

Looks as though there is an appeal route.

‘We would like to inform you that the RIC is the only competent commission to rule on these questions and assess the conformity of projects with the environmental requirements in force. The Department of Industry and Commerce is, of course, a member of this commission and participates in its work.

We invite you to file an appeal directly with the RIC if you consider that certain elements of your file deserve to be re-examined or supplemented. This will allow you to put forward your arguments and obtain a re-evaluation of certain aspects of your project’

Not sure which RNS it was but I am sure Emmerson mentioned using entirely waste water. The previous option was a pipe from a dam, the pipe would now run from the Khemisset waste water facility (which luckily is a shorter distance away). Trucking more water in when needed could be a method to overcome shortages. There isn’t any need to desalinate given potash is already salt based.

Thanks 99, before holding Emmerson I had little knowledge of potash but have tried learning as we wait.

So maybe not as big an improvement to the MRE as I thought, although if they include some of the area 57% not already included it could still well be much higher.

There has been some decent buying this morning let’s hope good news is on its way.

Definitely more challenging to receive the ESIA.

Mining wise it has actually become easier with KMP. Previously the brines needed an extra process (water intensive),to remove the iron & magnesium. Now those minerals make up the two new fertilisers.

Which brings us back to the last RNS & the JORC update.

The last MRE estimate was 537m tons worth around $30bn this only covered 43% of the licensed area & avoided the SW as it’s ore had more carnalite within it so harder to mine, but with KMP it actually makes this area more attractive. The potash cut off grades have also lifted 7%.

So the new MRE estimate will already be double (given we know they intend to mine 850mt PA of Struvite).

We could be looking at 2.5-3x the last MRE & that’s without the potential area we hold the licence for NW.

With a minimum of double means more trucks & instead of the original 2 declines 4 are now needed.

The good news is most of the basic engineering is completed so when they do start building we may be able to knock some time off the construction estimate.

New mining resource estimate & environmental permit are both due this quarter as of the last RNS. As Mr Jinx mentioned the environmental permit has held this up for the last 2-3yrs.

Once approved, Emmerson will publish a revised BFS, leading to a raise. 20% of Emmerson shares are owned by Global sustainable minerals (GSM Singapore), who in turn have a billionaire backer.

Emmerson need to raise around £550m to build the mine, some of this loan will be covered by the USD310 million dual-tranche project financing & be split between an ECA covered tranche led by UK Export Finance of USD230 million and a dual currency commercial tranche of USD80 million.

They have also already lined up the banks to fund the raise,

The four MLAs selected are ING Bank Group, Banque Centrale Populaire, Bank of Africa and a further unnamed "international European Bank."

The current broker estimate of 17p has a 50% haircut due to risk with a miner & raising cash.

This estimate is PRE PRODUCTION, post production will be much higher have a look at their website for more details.

https://www.emmersonplc.com/

The other snippet of news in the RNS was a new mineral resource estimate.

The last MRE included the below

Took only potash & salt into account.

Only covered 43% of the mining licence.

Had cut off grade at 85% (91% with KMP)

The new MRE could possibly double the old 537Mt JORC. Not forgetting the mine life will also be extended considerably.

This is without including the area to the North East which Emmerson have identified & holds the mining rights for.

Both MRE & life extension would almost certainly help with the raise once the BFS is in place.

The elephant is still in the room but this could be a very interesting quarter for Emmerson & hopefully their shareholders too.

Sorry posted before finishing, yes there will be dilution but it won't be a bloodbath for PI's as the UK export financing will give Emmerson a better deal than if it was rasing on its own.

As for the CFO I have it on very, very good authority, ;) that he was headhunted & made an offer which was difficult to turn down.

This isn't your typical AIM miner who need to dilute to raise.

"Based on current discussions, the USD310 million dual-tranche project financing will be split between an ECA covered tranche led by UK Export Finance of USD230 million and a dual currency commercial tranche of USD80 million."

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1676375542086065700/in-brief-emmerson-shares-up-as-puts-together-lending-syndicate.aspx

JORC upgrade & mine life will make interesting reading. The miners can also be bigger given the lower cut off grades.

It’s difficult to report news when the elephant is still in the room but there is positive news to digest. We wait.

Ideas, have a look at this document which is from the EU MaVAl study of Mining in Morocco, pitfalls & all.

https://africamaval.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/CS_MOROCCO_FINAL.pdf

It also mentions Emmerson & the Khemisset project (p53), which might not be a bad thing if they fancy helping out with the funding or bringing their expertise to getting the correct paperwork.

Just spotted this article from today, OCP to build a 219km pipe inland to its production hub inland. Alas it is nowhere near Khemisset but it does give us an idea of the costs of such a pipeline, $108m US, they (OCP), have been granted a loan for the pipeline which will carry water from their desalination plant on the coast. Enough water to fill 32,000 Olympic swimming pools per year.

https://www.worldfertilizer.com/phosphates/17092024/ifc-and-ocp-collaborate-on-water-shortage-project/

Meanwhile we wait for news on Emmerson's efforts to get the project over the line. I still believe there isn't or there does not seem to be enough pressure from residents, the local council & leaders. The area has a job shortage especially for the youth.

An old article sited an economics professor who stated,

"The study, authored by economics professor Sallem Koubida, estimates the mine project will lift local GDP per capita by around 40%.

It will create 2,385 direct and indirect jobs during construction, the study estimates, while the operational mine will create 1,500 jobs - comprising 760 direct employees - with the company aiming to fill 90% of roles with people from the Khemisset area and surrounding communities."

The local Khemisset chamber of trade should be all over this & pushing for it to go ahead. The same should be said for residents, but we never hear of anyone pushing for this with the exception of Emmerson & its shareholders.

Ideas, no he does not answer my emails any more sadly.

GC & Hayden have always told us the government is very positive view about the project but I am not sure if he is referring to local or national. If it is the former then I would hate to see what a negative view would look like. ;)

Ideas, from the CRUI Rabat website (Rabat is the local CRUI which covers Khemisset)

"Our offices are open exceptionally in July and August to welcome Moroccans of the World and prioritize their requests :

– Every day of the week until 6:30 p.m.

– Saturdays from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.

– Sunday mornings from 9 a.m. to 2 p.m."

https://www.rabatinvest.ma/en/home/

Well this is Africa, when mining here nothing is straightforward its high risk high reward.

The CRUI comprises of regional representatives of the following.

Regional Department for Infrastructure and Water ;

Regional Transport Directorate

Sebou Water Basin Agency;

Regional Department of Town Planning

Regional Tourism Directorate

Energy and Mines

Regional Department of Health

Regional Department of Agriculture and Maritime Fishing;

Regional Department of Trade and Industry;

Regional Directorate for Water and Forests;

Regional Directorate for Culture;

I was really hoping for news pre august, now my goal posts have moved (again), hopefully pre October.

Not directly effecting Emmerson but interesting to see Highfield receiving the funding for its Muga (Spain), potash mine. It's a bit of a complicated deal but will see Highfield having a number of potential mines across the globe.

Interestingly it has taken around 10yrs for them to acquire the financing needed to finish the project off.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1052328/highfield-resources-enters-transformative-partnership-to-fund-muga-and-become-globally-diversified-potash-company-1052328.html

" potash is located are very shallow in khemisset, a few meters below the surface"

The potash Emmerson is targeting is located on the basin strike which is shallow for potash mine standards but is still almost 500m deep.

As I mentioned previously, I do not believe the use of water has been the major issue.

Using waste water instead of fresh water has been the 'go to' method since July 22.

Building a desalination plant for such a small miner is/was simply impossible.

Hayden had mentioned (in a podcast), piping sea water as a possible solution back in 2018 but the FS went with using fresh water from the local dam.

The issue that has held the project up is the fear of water contamination. This is why no DWI has been such a major change & hopefully the key to receiving the permit. A lot of farmers use wells for water & contamination both from underground & salt contamination from tailings is a big issue for potash miners & their neighbours.

Take a look at this article from Thailand

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailands-race-to-become-a-global-potash-giant-leaves-bitter-taste-in-isaan/

So far Emmerson has committed to the highest standards but you can see why local government may be worried given the amount of agriculture & use of wells.

It has now been just over 90days since the middle of April. 'if' the ESIA has been resubmitted under the appeal process & the CRUI stick to their own guidelines, (big if's), Emmerson might be hearing something within weeks. Maybe further details might need to be ironed out hopefully we hear something in the next few weeks.

I don't think you can blame the BOD for not foreseeing a drought so severe it has lasted 6yrs.

Using wastewater from the local treatment centre was first suggested back in July 22, so using fresh water prior to this would certainly have been a major sticking point.

The paragraphs below is from 24 May this year in the financials.

"Taking into account these concerns, the Company has invested significant efforts in this area, engaging in iterative consultations with authorities. The work has led in many cases to concrete improvements such as switching to dry stack tailings instead of wet, and sourcing grey water from the Khemisset Waste Water Treatment Plant, rather than drawing from nearby rivers or reservoirs as had previously been discussed, in addition to the substantial improvements by the KMP."

"During 2023, the Company began to explore innovative solutions to the management of waste brines, which, under the original design set out in the 2020 Feasibility Study (the "2020 FS"), were proposed to be safely disposed of deep underground in porous/permeable rock structures in a process known as DWI. DWI is an established process in many other projects, but was new to Morocco, and while technical studies supported the robustness of the method, it remained a point of sensitivity."

"No other potash project in the world can make such a claim, nor be as efficient with freshwater usage."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EML/2023-financial-results/16486367

Taking the waste water & KMP into account the BOD IMO have done a fantastic job of keeping the project alive. All of the above steps are a huge positive & when the permit is granted along come jobs & a mine with a 50yr life potential.

GW62: agree with this.

As I understand it the water usage has not been as big an issue since Emmerson changed the water to grey water from the waste treatment centre.

The issue the water authorities have been worried about is water contamination & the disposal of the brines via DWI.

I have mentioned it before but DWI isn't something that has been used in Morocco previously & the water authority (ONEE), wanted further assurances over water contamination.

It was the same with the tailings being wet tailings originally.

Hopefully with no DWI & dry stack tailings these issues have been addressed.

The main differences with a negative impact with KMP is there will now be 4 declines & with almost double the amount of product (potash, salts, struvite & vivianite).

Which will also mean double the amount of trucks to transport the goods to the ports.

I was hoping for good news on the ESIA this month or August at the latest fingers crossed.