Member Info for Beyondthesea

I agree on the political point. If you look back on the June RNS from 2021 all the issues raised are the same issues (water, Brine, Tailings), that are being used as the reasons for not issuing the permit. Yet Emmerson (according to that RNS), addressed the tailings & Brine issues back then & as we know the wastewater solution has since been implemented in the last revision.

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9709C_1-2021-6-24.pdf

Yes they moved to a dry tailings method last year. I have attached a great link from April 22, so some aspects (waste water & dry tailings), have changed but it is the best research paper out there.

https://emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/OriorCap-Emmerson_2022_03_03.pdf

Hi, without the 2022 drought I don't think EML would have had a problem getting started.

Water is the fundamental issue, I believe the other parts are minor.

In my own company we regularly get audited & if the audit fails on something serious the auditor will often not only highlight the serious breach, but also mention other parts in which they are not happy. Without the serious breach the other failures would never be mentioned. This might also be the case here.

Where does this currently leave EML?

As mentioned other issues are solvable water is more of an issue. EML should be finding solutions to the other parts while we await the national committee decision.

I don't think we will be hearing about a decision for a while. August is a quiet period with the government on holiday.

Hopefully we might hear something late September/October time. If it came sooner I would be surprised.

I had hoped that a local journalist could uncover a bit more information but although he has enquired with the CRUI they have not responded to his questions which centred on the possible loss of over two thousand potential jobs within an area with high unemployment.

I am not sure the local population were/are aware of just how many jobs EML will create & that they intend/intended to employ locals.

I am still positive about eventually receiving the ESIA, if we break it down there were four area of concern.

I am hopeful that EML can put the brines injection to bed (it simply needs EML or its partners to prove we can dispose of brines this way (so a technical analysis put down on paper).

The neighbouring farmers I am sure can be accommodated with a bit of compensation.

The salts on the surface, again not that much of an issue, cost wise or effort to build warehouses to store the salts.

That leaves the biggest issue the water supply. There is a large dam building project & desalination projects ongoing with a target date of 2027. Given EML have 2yrs to construct the mine & it won't be starting pre 2024 we are almost at the same point in time to come onstream as the improved water supply does.

The ESIA will have strings attached I am sure & an initial decision may need EML to go back & re submit the ESIA again but eventually they should get there.

GL

Https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=emmerson+morocco&source=lnt&tbs=qdr:d&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiblYis6piAAxUzkFwKHeEfCjQQpwV6BAgDEA0&biw=1476&bih=1075&dpr=1.75#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:f35fa831,vid:qyWYyncEBhE

I have not seen or heard of run off problems being an issue, this is from the Jan 23 update

"Emmerson has also decided that a dry tailings system will be employed at Khemisset to reduce water consumption and eliminate any risk of saline fluid outflow in the event of an extreme rainfall event."

and this is from July 22 ref deep well injection.

"One of the holes has been extended to provide detailed data to feed into the design of the DWI (Deep Well Injection) for some of the process tailings. The 8km of ERT surveys have covered the tailings storage facility (TSF) area and the Mining Infrastructure Area (MIA), for best understanding of rock competence for foundations."

I know a local (ish), journalist in Morocco & I have spoken to them to see if they have any further information in regarding why the ESIA was turned down, I have given them the outline of the story & they are going to ask the CRUI for comment.

I am currently awaiting I have also asked if they could establish the reversal process. The main angle I was driving at with the journalist was the loss of over 2,300 potential jobs in an area with high unemployment. I have always believed that having the locals onboard with the project would be a positive step.

Of course the RNS last week was a massive disappointment to all of us, there were 5 issues mentioned,

water supply

disposal of brines

salts storage at ground level

neighbouring farms/landowners.

Traffic on the main highway

Most of these can hopefully be overcome, unlike others I do not believe this is a 50/50.

If we do appeal & get turned down again there will be reasons as to why & Emmerson will have to look at other solutions.

The only one I believe will be an issue is the water supply.

As soon as I hear something I will post (although I am sure it will probably appear in print before I post.

GLA

When you say OCP next door that is not quite the case. OCP open mine phosphates, they do not mine potash. Their potash claim blocks lie within EML's licence area meaning it would never be worthwhile to mine the claim. I have always thought that EML would eventually buy the claim area from OCP.

I am not sure as regards OCP involvement.

They own a vast area within the EML claim & could never mine it with EML licence area surrounding it as it does. This would have almost certainly lead to a purchase or discussions to buy from OCP.

I am sure an offtake would be a definite possibility but part owning does not seem to be the way they operate.

SP wise today is not great, unless you are topping up or new to this that is.

Not long before the next update lets see what the BOD have to say.

GLA

We are a week or two away from a Q2 update from the BOD. Why not wait & if you don’t hear anything then or if it’s not the news you want, then decide on how you want to invest?

Calling anyone connected to EML to me looks like desperation.

This is AIM it’s not for the faint hearted.

GL

Hajar Alaoui is the Permitting and Approvals Manager.

She started back in April 22, her background is within environmental permits.

She is also an expert on using grey/waste water, which is why EML either suggested using it or brought Hajar in to over see the resubmitted ESIA.

There isn't a lot more for EML to say it is in the hands of the Moroccan government now.

What we do know is that the last RNS stated only finer technical details were being evaluated.

There has not been any further communication since that update, or tweets for that matter & the wording in the last RNS left me to believe that Graham had been expecting to have the news we all wanted to hear.

This is guesswork, but I believe the reason for the current silence is that we are almost there. Yes this could have been wrote many times over the last few years (I have only been in here since last Apr/May), but the lack of communication certainly gives me hope that its not too far away.

GLA

Droughts in Morocco have been a recurring theme but its been 40yrs since the last drought as bad as the one that has effected the country over the last 2yrs. In April the countries reservoirs were only 25% full that is after the wet winter period, it impossible to know how this has effected the ESIA application but given the stumbling block is & has been water for at least the past 12mths & probably longer it isn't a reach to presume the drought has delayed EML.

Regarding state ownership the latest mining code is detailed in the link below. There is no legislation or suggestion that the government have to acquire some % of ownership.

https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/070cda05/morocco-mining-guide

We may never know what has gone on with this application & why it has taken forever, EML employed a specialist in environmental licensing (& waste water usage), in April last year. It was not long after that EML tabled the waste water solution.

We are in the hands of the Moroccan bureaucrats it has taken forever, lets hope it's not much longer.

GLA

The trouble with saying "they need to get some news out" is if it isn't confirmation of the ESIA then it's really not that newsworthy at this stage & holders will criticize them for it.

Take a look at their twitter feed it was lively up until 6 weeks ago, but every time they tweeted anything positive they got negative replies effectively telling them to stop tweeting unless it concerned the ESIA.

I actually believe (I have been wrong on many occasion's BTW), that the current radio silence is a good thing. Look at the previous updates GC words "I had hoped to be in position to provide a definitive update on this process"

Hindsight is of course a wonderful thing but EML never expected for this licence to have taken so long, this isn't naivety either, no company I knowingly know about in Morocco has had to submit an ESIA for such a large project since the mining laws changed. Add to that a drought that is the worst for 40yrs & EML hit the perfect storm.

The ESIA will come, "working on the finer details" as per the Q1 update isn't a back to the drawing board statement.

We are close, but just spurting out any non ESIA news won't help.

An interesting article this morning from Highfield. They have updated their DFS (as EML will need to also do after receiving the ESIA). It looks like estimates have been pushed up by around 10%.

I don't think this is unexpected, probably lower than I would have guessed.

An updated feasibility study for Muga estimated a capital cost of €436-million for the Phase 1 operation and €226-million for Phase 2. This was up from the previous estimate of €398-million for Phase 1 and €209-million for Phase 2.

C1 costs for the project have also increased from the €76/t estimated in 2021 to €91/t.

The mine plan for the Muga has been maintained with the project expected to have a 30-year mine life and Phase 1 of the operation producing 500 000 t/y of potash and Phase 2 increasing production to one-million tonnes a year.

https://m.miningweekly.com/article/highfield-gets-a25m-investment-2023-05-23

Raindance may have worked according to today's weather reports its raining & snowing in Morocco & there is localised flooding in Khemisset.

No holder enjoys days like these when the SP tanks but we really are in the hands of the Moroccan authorities.

Graham Clarke was brought in to build & run a mine. He has years of experience doing this & is a perfect fit.

So why are we not building the mine?

A couple of reasons combined has held this back,

1, The Moroccan mining licencing rules changed in 2020 meaning the ESIA was far more important than it was before. EML are on the 4th application, we have an experienced approvals manager brought in especially to get the ESIA passed (Hajar Alaoui), was brought in April 2022).

2, Morocco is currently in the worst drought for 40yrs, currently reservoir levels are below 25% & this is after the rainy season. Of course they have to be careful conserving water & making sure there is zero contamination from the mining tailings. EML have offered solutions, hopefully they are enough to get the permit granted.

If you read the last RNS, it sounds like (or at least to me), that GC was hoping to be in position to announce the permit, meaning he believes it could land anytime.

The good news is while EML have been waiting pre construction work has been continuing. This work was always going to be needed to be done so time wise it will not have too much of a detriment to the actual mine construction.

While it is frustrating, I am happy to wait, GC has always said Morocco is fully supportive of the project & mining licences have been granted. Everyone involved in EML has been frustrated by the wait, but I cannot see what more they can do other than wait & answer any queries the Moroccan gov have swiftly which I am sure they are doing.

GLA

Hi Aim/Westie, I cannot remember which clip I heard it in but I am sure Graham mentioned it. Might have been licence to produce or words to that effect. He also said it was easy to obtain once the ESIA drops.

GL

When the ESIA lands I am sure there will be plenty of media coverage & a few interviews from the BOD. Hopefully a Q&A for LTH's.

The next step once the ESIA lands is a licence to mine, but that should come easily once the environmental permit is in place.

Pre production construction has continued & hopefully this will put EML in a good position to break ground hopefully the end of this year or early next.

Long term holders already know the potential here but for anyone new, EML hold approx 50% of the basin with the licence area extending NE.

Currently the mine life is 30yrs with a possible 10-20 years extension but OCP also own a large area within EML's licenced blocks. This would add considerably (roughly double), to the mining area & would make sense for both parties for an agreement to recover from this area also (it would simply not make economic sense for OCP to mine here one EML have a mine running).

With the worst drought for 40yrs the permit is certainly taking its time but once the permit arrives we have a world class asset with possibly 50yrs+ on our hands.

GLA

Good evening Westie & Trev, I am also remaining positive & expect some kind of update in the next few weeks.
One issue that is not being discussed on the BB though is just how severe the drought is & how it looks set to continue.
Currently the reservoirs are only 24% full, its no wonder we are having to wait on the environmental permit. I believe without last years drought we would have had the permit already this looks to have held things back.
Hopefully Grahams waste water & dry tailings solutions have been welcomed by the Moroccan gov & they might be in a position to issue that last remaining hurdle.
Lets hope so & fingers crossed for rain.
GLA

EML brought GC in because they believed by now we would be building the mine. That's what he is good at building & running potash mines.
Nobody, PI's II's directors etc ever thought that this ESIA would take this long.
The reason for such a big delay is being unlucky with the timing, the mining laws changes in 2020 meaning more empathies was put on the environmental side then last year Morocco suffered its worst drought in 40yrs.

The permit will come, its really a Q of when & what other hurdles we have to cross.
I have a high average but intend to put more in once we are into the new tax year.
Hopefully the next bit of news is ESIA or completion of pre mining engineering. The road access is also due for an update now we have a Canadian contractor working on it.
GLA