Member Info for Beyondthesea

This didn't sound like a promise to me, realistic yes, hopeful yes, a promise? Nope.
"The Company is working through these solutions with the relevant government departments to ensure they are acceptable to all stakeholders, although the timing of final approvals is in the hands of the Moroccan authorities."

I expect news this week regarding the capex which will have had to rise with the inflation & water solutions being discussed.
GLA

Talk of the devil.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2023/02/22/miners-turn-to-the-growing-fertiliser-market/

Just sat down & had a good look through the RNS. As others have mentioned this is a great piece of news especially with the involvement of the UKIF for such a large percentage of the debt.
As a_sceptic alluded to costs may well have increased, but there was a large contingency built in there ($40m), & we have also had an extra $6m from the Singapore investors.
Even if the above did not cover the full costs it looks as though further funding via the raise would not be an issue.
Another good step in the right direction, the time lag between the environmental approval & debt raise should be closer from today's news.
GLA

Testpac3,
from the Q4 update
"Foremost among these is the confirmation of the capacity to use recycled water from the Khemisset Waste Water Treatment Plant, instead of drawing freshwater direct from the Ouljet Essoltane Dam. This revision, developed in conjunction with Reminex SA, significantly mitigates risks around water supply levels during dry periods."

"The Company has also determined that a dry tailings system will now be employed at Khemisset to reduce water consumption and essentially eliminate any risk of saline fluid outflow in the event of an extreme rainfall event. Such tailings storage facilities are in use at various potash operations around the world."

From the July Q2 update,
"Water Supply
In conjunction with Reminex, an improved solution for process plant water supply has been investigated in detail and now approved as the go forward case for further design work.".

This according to the latest presentation has been submitted in December.

As others have mentioned I do not think you need to be too concerned with the current drop Cbax. There is plenty of pre construction work ongoing at the site including road & junction work from a new Canadian contractor. GC mentioned in the Q4 update that we are fully funded up to the debt raise & with the extra funding we received in October there isn't any reason why the project should not be on course given the pre construction work was always going to take place 22/23.
If you look at the last presentation from the Emmerson website (Feb 23), the time line has been updated with the lates info which reads,

"Met with technical authorities on 28 October 2022 who confirmed only minor finalisations required to complete the submission."

"Technical submissions made to environmental and water agencies for review. December 2022"

I have always believed it's a matter of time as to when we receive the ESIA.
EML have been unlucky with the recent mining law changes & a severe drought in Morocco, coming when the application has been submitted.
I am happy to hold & wait, no investment especially on AIM is risk free but the project is world class & EML have submitted a viable alternative to using fresh water.
GLA

I don’t think the mining salt & tailings are a big concern here. If you street view or look at the photos on the Emmerson website you will see it’s just desert for miles & miles around. This doesn’t mean the tailings can be left in previous updates we know they have drilled to test the geology for wells for the tailings to be pumped into & further slides show the construction plan with plenty of room for mining waste.
Of course we need the ESIA but work is ongoing even if we had this last year I do not believe we would be any further ahead construction wise. Pre construction was always the first part & with the $18m raised we know the money is being put to good use in pre construction work. Best of all we have it confirmed that we are fully funded up to the debt raise for mine construction.

Hi all, I also believe the ESIA will be with us this quarter, there has been a lot of pre construction work onsite already & the three main contractors are all in place.
The further $6m has ensured we have the necessary funds up to the debt raise.
The further potential is enormous the JORC only covers 40% of the current mining claim, the further North/East the basin goes the better the grades which falls inline with the remaining EML area.
There is also a massive area in the middle of our claim owned by OCP. This will never be mined by them so I would expect EML at some point to make an offer for the claim. This area easily adds 30% to the current licence area.

That is true, but we can look at indicators to what we think the chances are.
Firstly the commitment from our Singapore backers with another $6m investment at a purchase price above the current SP. We are now funded through to project financing.
Secondly, the recent off take agreements, if this project was way off I doubt we would be entering into negotiation's for the off take agreements.
Thirdly, the recent presentation informed us that Graham had "Met with Technical authorities on the 28th October 2022 who confirmed only minor finalisations required to complete the submission"
It's hard watching this drop & awaiting the news we all want to hear but I believe this project is on track.
GL

Hi, sorry I meant shipping as in sending the potash/salt overseas as we would if our customer were based in Brazil. GL.

Nice to see Emmerson going back in the right direction. I especially like the offtake for the salt, with potash prices coming back of the highs the salt gives Emmerson a cushion. There wasn't much detail of who we could sell the salt to but with this offtake agreeing to take 50% it's the cherry on the top of the potash cake.
We all know there is another important piece of news we are all waiting for but in the meantime negotiating a deal for the dept financing is made easier when we give the backers confidence that our products are in demand & best of all no shipping costs involved.

Work done / ongoing. According to the update in July. All C&P form the article posted recently.
1, further drilling of deep holes was supplemented by directional drilling and four additional ERT surveys. The deeper drill holes had the dual purpose of further understanding the lithography around the declines to assist in finalising the precise siting for key infrastructure to take advantage of the most competent ground conditions.
2, The new portal location was approved as the go-forward case for more detailed engineering, the company said.
3, “Engineering is well under way on each of the key infrastructure areas. Civil and structural work has now commenced following the decisions made with regard to mine site and portal locations,”
4, In conjunction with Reminex, an improved solution for process plant water supply was investigated in detail and approved as the go-forward case for further design work.
5, Meanwhile, the power strategy for the mine was more clearly defined during the quarter, with the main feed onto site, backup feed and substation now confirmed. Emmerson said engagement with State-owned utility ONEE would now move forward to develop key design criteria.
6, In terms of other infrastructure, Emmerson engaged with a specialist consultant to assist in the design of the highway connection, after which a baseline study was completed to understand local transport characteristics such as travel directions and distances, traffic, air pollution or quality of roads, as well as to assess the impact of the future mine.
7, finance, This work was ongoing, the company said, with options for the location of the road junction already identified and under discussion with the relevant government bodies to achieve the best outcome.

The simply wall st articles are poorly written as they are just automated documents for clicks.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/emmersons-moroccan-potash-project-progressing-well-2022-07-11#.Y3PyD7k5PZg.twitter
A few of you will have already read the above but its worth having a look at just what EML are doing currently. The project manager flew out this Monday so hopefully he is looking at the next parts of the pre production work necessary before the mine can be started.
There is plenty to be done, cash burn normally with miners is a worry but here we are using it in readiness for production.
The wait for the ESIA is driving us all nuts but I am happy that the background work continues.

https://www.agbi.com/analysis/morocco-aims-to-become-the-worlds-premier-fertiliser-tycoon/
This bit is interesting,
"Many Moroccan firms, he explained, will use their potash to produce the fertiliser end-product and sell that on – not just to Europe, but also to Africa, which he said Morocco is targeting as a future export market. Clarke said his team is looking to export potash, rather than create fertilisers and export those products."
Then this,
"OCP, Morocco’s state-owned and largest phosphate producer, has a “vision to supply fertilisers to Africa, and Africa will, because of the amount of arable land available, become a food exporter to feed the world – it has to do that, otherwise food security issues will become a significant problem,” Clarke said.

ESIA permits are not a yes or a no. This document goes back & forward several times between the ministry & Emmerson. It's just a question of when not if.
One possible reason is something I have mentioned before, what if Emmerson want the current agreement with the Singapore consortium to expire?
I am not saying we already have the ESIA but it may be that the final sign off may well be post 30th September. Why? We may well have found a better financial backer.
By not having the ESIA there would be no reason to RNS or hide anything & it would explain the radio silence.
Just a thought.

There isn't a yes or no on an ESIA, it's a document which will have been back & forward a few times between the ministry & Emmerson. Reading between the lines it looks as though water was the very first issue followed by transportation impact assessment & lastly tailings storage. Emmerson took someone on in April whose sole task is licencing agreements.
As for the conspiracy theories regarding the Moroccan gov and/or OCP, if they didn't want Emmerson to own the mine they would not have issued the mining licence back in 2021. That would have been the time to stop the project not by means of the ESIA & think what holding us back would do to the reputation of Morocco as a mining jurisdiction (2nd best in Africa), if they had withheld for no reason. I am sure Emmerson would not have been as positive over the Moroccan gov if this was the case. It's a frustrating waiting game the rules over the ESIA changed in 2021 & it might be that both parties are getting used to the 154 steps required for sign off.
I am holding patiently, for good news. GL.

Kierwiet, good post, yes it looks as though you may be right.

I was thinking along the lines that the necessary actions may already be in place but the final meeting to confirm may have been set for October.

We are unfortunately left guessing without news but there may well be reasons as to why there is silence & things may be progressing well behind the scenes. GL

What if there is a deal in place with OCP or others & the one issue holding it up is the funding we got from the Singapore consortium?
We may have been offered better terms & be running down the clock (30th September), before announcing anything.

Just a thought as to why, which would be a reason for the radio silence.

Also worth a watch if you have not already seen it from March 2022 again.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=emmerson+potash&&view=detail&mid=1164CBB8E647994335411164CBB8E64799433541&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Demmerson%2Bpotash%26FORM%3DHDRSC3

Worth re-reading the latest (March 2022), research note.

" Valuation update. We have updated our model and valuation. Although the Khemisset
project metrics have not changed, we have updated our numbers to reflect pricing and the
inclusion of SOP amongst other changes. Given that Khemisset is nearing construction, we
switch to a blended NAV/EBITDA forward-looking exit valuation approach. Our previous
17.6p/sh estimate of fair value is replaced by two metrics; a pre-production average of
19.9p/sh including funding considerations and a production stage average of 56.3p/sh. We
use $450/t MOP for these numbers and thus the potential upside versus current pricing is
obvious. Thus, we currently see 2.8x upside to the current share price at the pre-production
stage and 8x at a fully ramped up production phase"

https://www.emmersonplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Shard-Capital-EML-25-3-2022-R-1.pdf

The local company will be the Emmerson 100% owned subsidiary "Moroccan salts Ltd" Not sure if this is just a referral to the mining licence as there isn't a mention of Environmental.