Member Info for Beyondthesea

This is welcome news, they are not asking for a new ESIA, it isn’t starting from scratch.

Emmerson will now resubmit the ‘EIA’ so that excludes the social side. Most of the data remains the same the major difference is obviously the water & no DWI.

EML don’t need to raise currently they have enough money until the end of the year, hopefully this is now resolved within the next few months.

Hopefully some have now read the note. I have been investing in miners for the last 15yrs & seen numerous research notes but this is easily the best one I have read.

Not only does it deal with the financials but it also goes further into the new fertilizers EML have in Struvite & Vivianite.

A couple more interesting nuggets from the note include,

Finance wise at the end of 2023 Emmerson had around $2m left.

Suggestions on a raise, post ESIA (8p+), need around $6m to see them through to financial close.

Crop trials of the new fertilizer are taking place, results in an upcoming FS.

The FS will/may also extend mine life as well as giving lower cut off grades making it possible for larger mining machinery to be used producing extra amounts of potash.

There is a possibility of processing Struvite into Dittmarite, which is a more expensive fertilizer.

EML could also blend MOP with struvite to create a multi mineral fertilizer.

Vivianite 'could' have the potential to be used in LFP lithium batteries.

As I said it really is an interesting read & worth having a look at if you are invested here.

not sure how many of you have seen it but there is a new research note out today from liberum. it's a hefty 27p document. unfortunately the link i received has expired but i can give you some of the highlights.

the main highlight being calling the kmp process as 'game changing" & raising the short term target from 11.5p to 17.8p

https://*********************/companies/uk/industrial-metals-nonferrous/emmerson-plc/research/liberum/liberum-emmerson-kmp-game-changer/1_1020571

Goldbar,

Yes it is taking forever, that said this new process using 60% less water and no DWI has only been known for the last month & there isn't a DFS for this method (something we may have to do before receiving the ESIA which would also be a good time to reassess the resource which should be higher with this new method), although if they do request this hopefully GC can RNS it so we can see they are getting somewhere.

Nice to see a good blue finish to the day.

Aghmir, well said, I have a mate who's Russian & sent him a screenshot of the earlier conversation, he nearly spat is coffee out lol.

Older generation Russians, blame any unexplained event on the British, they call us the old fox.

If anything has held up the ESIA it's almost certainly water & waste water.

The drought in Morocco is in its 4th year & this years rainy season isn't rainy.

Only recent mention on timescales I can find is this from the recent mining event Emmerson attended.

"What are your key goals for the next 3, 6 and 12 months?

3 Months:

Receive environmental permit and finalise optimisations

6 Months:

Negotiate financing and supply agreements

12 Months:

Begin construction at Khemisset"

https://www.weare121.com/121mininginvestment-cape-town/emmerson-plc/

I have just listened, I think you are misunderstanding what he says,

he is replying about the key milestones coming up in the next 6-12mths, so EISA & BFS.

Ideas, have a look at the link below. It is from 2021 but the text reads & sounds like it is the committee we would have been referred to.

"This meeting was devoted to the study of appeals filed by investors concerning the decisions of the Unified Regional Investment Commissions (CRUI),"

https://www.maroc.ma/fr/actualites/le-chef-du-gouvernement-preside-une-reunion-de-la-commission-interministerielle-de

Last weeks news of the new process has hopefully changed the landscape. If you have a look at the last presentation you can see the amount of water EML wanted to use & how much it now saves. Have to say I was surprised by just how much water the original process needed (139m3 per hr), just for comparison an Olympic sized swimming pool has around 375m3.

Thinking back to the original application the changes to using waste water, dry tailings & now the process to save far more water must be beneficial to obtaining the permit.

This isn't the committee meeting EML's fate is to be decided.

The committee meeting EML are waiting for is the,

the Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage (''Ministerial Committee'' or the ''Committee'')

Just a couple of snippets from the new study, that were interesting.

There are now plans for 4 declines instead of 2, which makes sense given the amount of extra struvite/vivianite (882mtpa), which will be coming out of the ground.

The other big take is the water reduction & for the first time we now have figures on just how much the project will use.

Previous FS had assumed 139m3/hr new KMP process 56m3/hr so that's the 60% cut, but then there is the saving on the DWI on the last FS it estimated 20million m3 over the mine life (so roughly just over 1m m3 per year). With the new process that is now zero.

So that is a massive positive on water, the only disadvantage environmentally is more trucks will be needed to ship the salts to port.

GLA

Https://www.emmersonplc.com/investors/corporate-documents/

There is a new presentation, to have a look at.

I am glad to see the latest RNS has gone down well, there is of course a huge elephant in the room, but this new process can only help & not hinder the progress. Lets hope its already on the committees desk.

GLA

Aghmir,

"Emmerson is still awaiting the session of the Commission Ministérielle de Pilotage (''Ministerial Committee'' or the ''Committee'') to obtain environmental approval"

According to the last RNS.

As for the 30 day appeal, I have never thought EML were refused the permit & so the appeal process isn't valid.

If you listen to what GC said he said the committee could not make the decision.

It's the same with the reasons for the delay, we were always told water, but its not the water supply that has worried the officials , it's the waste water containing the salts & there worry over contamination, which is resolved with the dry tailings method EML are going to use now.

GW62, reagrding Rob Butler he tweeted this on the Tuesday 23rd

"Excellent meeting today with

@AmbHHajoui

.In sectors from aerospace to automotives, green power to potash, and with FIFAWorldCup"

Meeting yesterday, ref Aghmir post.

"In its third session, the National Investment Committee approved 42 projects (34 draft agreements and 8 annexes agreements), which will be completed by the private sector with a total value of 7.4 billion dirhams, which will create 16,200 jobs, including 5,900 direct jobs and 10,300 indirect jobs.

The private sector's investment of 60% of the value of approved investment projects concretely reflects that the new investment charter mainly stimulates national enterprises.

In terms of job opportunities created, the industrial sector is the main sector in terms of the number of jobs that will be created thanks to the projects approved by the National Investment Commission, as this sector will create more than 9,000 direct and indirect jobs, representing more than 56% of the total job opportunities, followed by the tourism sector with about 13%, and the pharmaceutical industry with 8%.

During this meeting, Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch stressed that supporting private national investment and job creation are among the government's priorities, in implementation of the High Royal Directives, explaining that all concerned parties are mobilized to ensure the sustainability of the registered dynamic necessary to contribute to the economic recovery of our country."

Sorry TP that was to, Ideas.

TP, OCP mine phosphate which is found on the surface or at shallow depths. These surface mines are quite different to mining potash 400m below the surface. It could be described as a mine or quarry.

You are correct about the size of OCP they are a massive player in the fertilizer industry & plan to operate in several African countries.

Could they get a ML & ESIA? Of course but it could take a number of years (although not as long as it is taking for EML).

They could easily mine the area they hold but the mine would be limited given EML own the licence around them, hence why a JV would work well for them IMO.

WYT, that's interesting regarding the slope, why on earth would they build a slope without mining/environmental licences? Its cart before horse.

As I understand it this is a joint venture between OCP & ONHYM, historically looking at the old RNS details the OCP area are the brown blocks on the maps surrounded by the larger EML blue blocks.

ONHYM have been busy looking for natural (white), Hydrogen in the basin but that is much deeper than the potash seem.

Sloppy, agreed like BYT mentioned OCP have the blocks but no mining licence or experience, not to mention their resource hasn't even been JORC'd. The articles on line mention tunnels, I think they are just poorly worded & they have been drilling samples.

It is as we say all speculation, but given both company's are mining the same material & possibly selling it to the same customer (OCP), it would make commercial sense for the two to work together.

So & please do not take this seriously I am playing around with the possibilities,

A joint venture would make the most sense to me (provided OCP & the gov play fair), a scenario as below would work for both parties.

a 50/50 joint venture in MSL (currently 100% owned by Emmerson),

in return for half the company OCP transfer all their current licencing blocks to MSL.

Both company's fund the building of the mine & processing plant (what % negotiable but heavier on the OCP side),

The benefit to OCP is they now have a mine capable of producing the potash they need for 50+ years, possibly further & production could with their financial clout be ramped up. OCP could pay the gate price reducing their current costs by as much as half, not forgetting the revenue from MSL.

The benefit for EML is the debt raise would be far smaller & in having OCP as their main/only customer transportation costs would be negligible (at gate cost).

If OCP have as much potash as they think & the future expansion the mine would produce billions in revenue. Split 50/50 yes but the revenue minus the transport would be over $150m per year over 50yrs.

Put that on a FWD earning ratio of say 8 & you are looking a Mcap of around £600m for EML.

Like I said playing around with the figures & making huge assumptions but given this board is far better off late why not.

I wonder how soon that ESIA would drop if the above was to be agreed ;)

GW, agreed. This is what the Feb 21 RNS stated about the licence.

"The ML is valid for an initial 10-year period, which is renewable in 10-yr increments until the resource is exhausted and provides exclusive rights to extraction. Article 47 of the Mining Code 33-13 stipulates that: "The mining licence confers upon its holder the exclusive right to extract and/or develop mining products from an ore deposit in order to produce marketable mining products, namely through the use of studies, preparatory work, mining activities and/or enrichment and/or valorization operations, in addition to the installation of any infrastructure necessary to carry out these works".

"The Company retains the right to explore in the investigation permits covering the highly prospective ground around the ML, in particular the extensions to the north east of the Project."

I also found this info from a broker note,

"“With the aim of producing at least some of its own potash in-house, OCP acquired certain

tenements in the Khemisset Basin amidst those of Emmerson’s. However, we understand

that Emmerson’s database of historical drilling results indicates that the bulk of potash

mineralisation on OCP’s tenements is comprised of carnallite (which is less desirable from

mining and processing viewpoints), generally with lower K2O grades.

We are therefore doubtful that a standalone MOP mine on OCP’s tenements will be

economically viable. Instead, it would seem to us to make eminent sense that OCP should

look to strike a deal with Emmerson. We see two cooperative ‘win win’ possibilities:

• A single operation designed to optimally exploit OCP’s and Emmerson’s tenements

would likely enjoy an economic value that is greater than the sum of two standalone

operations, we believe.

• Alternatively, OCP could simply strike an offtake agreement with Emmerson, with the

two parties splitting the savings in shipping costs. Such a deal would secure a significant

proportion of OCP’s potash requirements while reducing its procurement costs. In

addition, there would be no need for OCP to fund the construction of a potash operation.

Meanwhile, Emmerson would enjoy an enhanced netback – and we understand that,

under Moroccan law, importantly, Emmerson will still benefit from the 20% CIT rate

incentive on any sales to OCP (as the transformed products would ultimately be

exported).

A third option is rather less palatable, from our point of view: that of OCP acquiring Emmerson

and/or Khemisset. Emmerson’s market cap is currently quite low relative to Khemisset’s

potential value, so barring a significant rally in Emmerson’s shares (and/or a very hefty

premium), we perceive an acquisitive transaction as being of rather more benefit to OCP than

to Emmerson’s shareholders.”

It's a strange one yesterdays news, I don't know if its good or bad really.

As we are kept well in the dark regarding progress, I doubt we will hear much from EML as regards the OCP move but a couple of things to note.

1, the licence area OCP hold is an old claim from well before EML got their area. If you remember the older RNS's the licence area EML had on the slides had blocks missing in the middle/bottom, these were the OCP areas.

2, The scoping study of EML's claim runs S/W to N/E, with the better grades the further N/E you go. OCP's claim is in the S/W area where grades are poorer. They do not appear to have any further exploration potential.

3, Hayden mentioned post DFS that the area not in the DFS would give another 250mt & an extra 10yrs to the mine life. Then there is the potential area further N/E which he thought back in 2109 could hold another 4-500mt, which would push the mine life to over 50yrs.

OCP do not look to have this extra potential. The licence blocks for EML's area & the potential are already held by EML when they consolidated the mining licence in 2020.

4, If both mines went ahead separately then sharing a processing plant would seem a way to save millions for both company's. OCP may also want to build a SOP plant which again would benefit EML if they could have an agreement with OCP to buy the potash.

GLA