RE: Value28 Dec 2025 11:20
With the latest broker update using the gold price of $3200 I thought it might be interesting to use the same formula but with gold at $4519 per oz,
Group NPV Estimation at $4,519/oz Gold
The tweeted sensitivity for Neo Energy Metals' group NPV (likely post-tax, discounted cash flow valuation for their uranium-gold projects):
Base gold price: US$3,200/oz → Implied base group NPV of US$393 million
(From: +10% to $3,520/oz increases NPV by 20% to $472M → $472M / 1.20 = $393M)
This shows ~2x leverage: a 10% rise in gold price boosts NPV by 20% (driven by gold by-product credits in the Beisa/Beatrix assets).
Linear Extrapolation to $4,519/oz
Gold price increase from base: $4,519 / $3,200 = +41.22%
NPV uplift: (41.22% / 10%) × 20% = +82.43%
Estimated group NPV: $393M × 1.8243 ≈ US$717 million
(Per 1% gold increase ≈ +2% NPV → 41.22% × 2 = +82.43%, same result.)
NAV (Net Asset Value) per Share
NAV approximates group NPV divided by shares outstanding (using basic shares for conservatism).
Shares in issue: ~2.21 billion (latest LSE data as of late 2025)
Using recent GBP/USD rate (~1.348 for conversion):
US$717M ≈ £532 million ($717M / 1.348)
NAV per share: £532M / 2.21B shares ≈ 0.241 GBP (or 24.1 pence)
For context:
Recent share price: ~0.68 GBP (market cap ~£15M)
This implies substantial theoretical upside at these gold levels, though discounted for risks (e.g., execution, funding, approvals for Beisa).
Credit to Grok here, based on the current amount of shares in issue.