The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Levels at the end of the day or red
I'm predicting close of day around 38p!
And Slim you seem to have slipped into a pessimistic loop - what's up?
Presume being snubbed over email has annoyed you somewhat?
I think Slimβs just being a realist to temper his expectations!
Is any of this new?
'AT US$2,400 oz gold over life of mine, EBITDA increases to US$769M vs US$355M + 117%'
https://www.condorgold.com/sites/default/files/presentations/Condor%20Gold%20Corporate%20Presentation%20May%202024%20v2.pdf
$2.3 billion
'PEA - La India open pit + 2 feeder pits + Underground - fully permitted
150,000 oz gold p.a. over the initial 9 years of production
At US$2,400 oz gold over life of mine, EBITDA increases to US$2,317M vs US$1,205M +92%'
Would you believe that this is JM's strategy and logic?
A presentation several years ago he stated that the gold in the ground with ownership is actually not to dissimilar to having it sat in a safe. Combined with the his forecast on the pog (which is being realised!), he's just not wrong.
Loving the speculation whilst enjoying the SPβ¦. For what is worthβ¦. If they could have done a cheap deal and didnβt, Iβm beginning to think Jim has his eyes on a decent price!
Good spot Vermillion, ppt posted to website on Friday.
Mm Surrey , obviously not the same presentation as when he predicted 150 k oz production lol. Cnr share price was 50 p 5 years ago and Β£2 10 years ago. Bank of condor pays pretty poor negative interest!
Still 36 p is ok sell today if you bought in the teens or even mid twenties.;)
I would like to know whether a value of 2.3 billion is realistic. And how much of this value would a buyer usually pay? 10 percent, 20 percent...? Can you or someone else bring me up to date with the usual valuations, please. I suspect that gold will be above 2,500 dollars in June. Will that change the valuation in the short term if we go to 3,000 dollars or has that already been agreed?
I've got no doubt this is the root of the negotiations
I suspect they would have agreed a price of gold on which to do the valuation. Not 3k that's for sure. Maybe 2k, perhaps slightly less.
Then like anything it comes down to drumming up a bidding war between 2 maybe 3 buyers to get a higher valuation. Condor unfortunately say, well if you don't pay what we want, we will start mining ourselves, as it would clearly be a bluff.
I figure JM has a gold price in mind, and a valuation for Condor based on that. Buyers may well say, as they must have done 18 months ago, we're not paying that, and JM will have gone, fine then, just wait and see what happens. And so we have ! lol
He may not be the messiah, and he may not be right about everything (let it go Seingred), but he's called gold pretty well so far and he didn't get rich by being a fool, so I will also wait and see what happens!
Frizzers is about right with his estimate of 45p for a buyout based on the usual metrics especially since CNR management has effectively said they are not mine builders. I fully agree with his assessment that Calibre is the obvious choice, given the proximity of their (under-utilised) La Libertad mill and the possibility of building another hub, sometime in the future, at La India (already approved and mill in storage). This would further increase their capability for expanding their other mines at Limon and future-proof production capacity (reducing the risk of plant shutdowns). Calibre has put together a funding war chest beyond that required to take Valantine into production, which is unusual. Calibre management are mine builders supported by B2Gold (originally invested in La India) and looking to get to 500 koz per annum which would re-rate them as a mid-tier producer... adding Condor's assets would achieve this by 2025/6.
Expect 15p cash + shares in Calibre (currently on a tare price-wise) to approximate 45p overall.
37.8p approx Canadian close
Unfortunately it means bugger all here!
Https://insightcrime.org/news/increasingly-brazen-gaitanistas-attack-colombias-biggest-gold-mine/ I think Zijin is of the Chinese bidders with Ortega getting into bed with the Chinese and pleading with them to invest in his country. Zijin paid an even $1BilU$ for this troubled mine and quickly increased production to become one of Colombia's largest gold mines now have run into this constantly. Far less chance of this happening in Nicaragua with a pit mine and the way the mines there go out of their way to substantially increase the quality of living for the locals. Calibre furnishes clean water systems, housing, schools, medical and a fair wages with benefits for the local communities around their mines. All the new owner has to do is follow Calibre's business model.
I will say its easy to spot the short term flippers vs. The long termers.
Disagree with yours and/or frizzers logic, 45p wouldn't be appropriate in the slightest, indeed for many LTHs that would be a significant loss.
I posted this on 1st April 23
"Of course all of us here would like a bidding war. But best not to get carried away - companies will put a valuation on the asset of CNR as a whole - and will not exceed their maximum purchase price - a bidding was though may mean nobody can buy it below their maximum purchase price.
I think a Chinese company may be favourite - Chinese miners seem to go for assets in low cost regions, biggest one operating abroad is Zijin Mining Group, The year 2022 was a big year for Zijin Mining in terms of M&A. The company completed 10 acquisitions within the year, spending a total of RMB 31.9 billion, more than any other company in the industry. They are already operating in South America."
Since then Tibet Acquisition https://www.zijinmining.com/news/news-detail-119845.htm
15% stake in Solaris Canada https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/chinas-zijin-mining-takes-15-stake-canadas-solaris-2024-01-11/
Although this article from 2022 is interesting - Zijin downgrade due to large number of acquisitions on the books. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-24-11-2022
Assuming Calibre are the eventual buyer. Cash + shares would likely be the most obvious offer. Calibre are mine builders and are looking at re-rating to a higher level. If you examine the Lassonde Curve you can see that given parts of Calibre are in the mine-building phase and therefore the share price top is probably 2-3 times higher than now within 12 months. Assuming this works out a third in cash offering now (say) plus 30p's worth in shares (disregard dilution for a moment) that re-rate would produce a forward value of around a total of 90p (15p + say 75p) in twelve months.
Gotta love this but getting a bit ahead of ourselves building in the Calibre share price a year down the line ha ha
Impressive today to see how much of the deadwood has been cleared for a relatively small fall so enable the next build in the shareprice towards 40p. all coming together. Gla
Seller doesnβt fancy the Calibre shares, wants cash