Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
I have a core holding in CGH that I have had for years at an average cost of around 7p and have been gradually moved this across into my ISA and even used it to top up my SIPP. I am trying to get my risky shares into tax efficient plans. That way if they do well there is no tax to pay even when I cash out (pension is more long term). This strategy has really paid off as I now have a massive ISA stuffed with CGH shares. This allows me to play with timing when buying and selling this one stock. The secret is to keep trades below 15,000 and do them very quickly online. Fortunately Martin is the back stop and he obvious has very deep pockets. He does want to dilute the shares as he expands his Chaarat Empire. Read my past blogs for my take on this (I only write about CGH here).
Once the price started dropping from it’s recent high, 38p, (small sales for Christmas money perhaps) and Martin didn’t respond I knew it would fall considerably it bottomed at 29p but could have been lower. He must have been asleep! It was always going to pick up again at some point as he needs to keep the price steady or rising. Otherwise he’ll get a landslide of small worried investor getting out. The price has now miraculously started to rise quickly on very low volumes currently at 34p. I have sold and rebought some of these as I am in this for the long term but if someone is going to offer us Christmas presents then I’m happy to take them.
If you can live with some uncertainty then stick with Martin but look to take profits on the pull backs.
I expect (hope) CGH will go over 100p in 2021.
Merry Christmas
EASY MONEY. CGH Share price is definitely being manipulated... it is amazing that a few thousand pounds worth of buys and sales can change the share price by 10 to 20% ... when the major shareholder appears to be the only person buying.
Is it those pesky little shareholders selling to get some beer money for Christmas or the half billionaire major shareholder, whose reputation for financial wizardry was honed in the aftermath of the Russian 1990’s privatisations. Cheers for the beer money Martin but will the naked price ramping be questioned. Perhaps YOU can beat the Lassonde Curve. I don’t think so but happy to take your Christmas pressies.
My point is that the price is following "the usual pattern"... as per The Lassonde Curve... therefore having identified the pattern sell when it is falling and buy back after it rebounds... I believe it is still falling and may well go back down to 24p area unless either Martin keeps buying or they have some VERY positive news about buying other assets. The Chaarat deposit is already priced in and Kapan is only offering cashflow and a some diversification and spreading a little risk. Sure there is potential but no large investment companies will touch this until financing is in place and progress is being made in construction of plant at Chaarat. This will herald the next price reset. Chaarat is currently shutdown for the winter and Artem doesn't seem to be delivering on the aquisition front. Dusty seems to be pulling his weight but adding ounces isn't the game changer here, that has already happened.
It may not be a fair critique since I just posted on the spur of the moment but it seems to have prompted Martin to act as he then bought 2x 250k shares at 29-30p. It just goes to prove that he is the only person keeping the share price at this level. The next support level is around 24p and I think Martin need the price to stay as high as possible say above 29p to help him negotiate his funding.
The problem is he is trying to fight "The Junior Mining Company Life Cycle" which is highlighted in The Lassonde Curve >>> https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/. I believe CGH is the "Orphan" phase but has yet to reach the bottom inflection point.
News flow is very important to this stock price and over the last few months there hasn't been much to shout about.
I'll buy when it reaches 24-25p range as I believe Martin will ultimately be successful. I thinking the price will rise to over 100p but not for 18 months or so. Good prospects but you can stomach uncertainty? I recommend sell on the dip and buy on the rebound. It'd definitely dipping right now.
What has happened to the share price? We need Santa Martin on the case. Has he gone to sleep? Perhaps he has more pressing problems elsewhere or his interest in KR is waning . We have become so dependent on our Chairman and largest shareholder to keep the shareprice rising. Who else is a net buyer over the last 18 months? By now his group of buyout specialists were supposed to have brought in a number of producing mines. They have a couple of weeks left and as the share price tanks the opportunity to use company shares as an enticement is going up the chimney... the smoke signals don't look great. This could go all the way back down to 15p. Sell now buy back in the Spring.
Further to the meeting Centerra have just announced that the time to agree outstanding issues with regard to the halt in proceeding with KG government has been extended by 3 weeks. This allows time for Parliment to discuss change of control and new joint venture with Chaarat. Full Statement below. TORONTO, May 25, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG) (�Centerra�) announced today that it has agreed with the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic to extend the First Longstop Date under the Strategic Agreement for Environmental Protection and Investment Promotion (�Strategic Agreement�) previously entered into with the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic on September 11, 2017. The First Longstop Date is the date by which all conditions precedent to the completion of the Strategic Agreement are required to be satisfied and it has been further extended by agreement of all the parties from May 31, 2018 to June 22, 2018. Centerra recently met with Prime Minister Muhammedkaliy Abilgaziyev, who was appointed on April 20, 2018, and other Kyrgyz Republic officials regarding the Strategic Agreement. The Company continues to work with the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic to ensure the satisfaction of the remaining conditions precedent to completion of the Strategic Agreement, including the termination of certain legal proceedings and receipt of the signed land use certificate.
The CGH Russian connections are a positive in Kyrgyz Republic (KG). KG gained independence from Russia in 1991 (less than 30 years ago) it is still part of the Russian trading block and has many Russian workers. Russian is widely spoken. The ruling elite of KG all speak Russian, so it is a disadvantage not to have Russian connections if you are operating in KG. CGH is a Caribbean Public Registered company listed and regulated in London on AIM. Martin A, CGH Chairman and 35% shareholder, is Swedish but lives in London. He is a fluent Russian speaker who made his fortune primarily in Russia and still has many links to that country, so do others on "his" board. There are is no possibility of sanctions being placed on either him or CGH. These are partly the reasons why CGH is ideally, and possible uniquely, placed to take advantage of cheap western money to help develop the only truly democratically elected government in the region, with the help of European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, and others. KG is currently dependent on the production of gold sales from the Kumtor Mine which produces about 10% of GDP, but the mine is controlled and operated by a North American company, Centerra, that wants to develop resources outside of KG... using monies from the Kumtor Mine! CGH plan is to build a world class Precious Metals (PM) business based on the gold resources in KG, which are much larger than many people realise! By combining several resources (soon to be mines) in cooperation with the KG government. Their plan is to invest and re-invest in to the KG gold deposits and build from there. This has been done before two examples are BHP (Broken Hill Properties) still based in Melborne Vic., Australia (gold) and RioTinto which started out in Andalusia, Spain (copper). Gold is a strategic reserve for KG but Centerra, the current operators of the Kumtor Mine, have their own interest at heart... theirs is a more personal vision. The CGH plan aligns with the strategic interest of the KG government and it's people. Add to this that Russia, China, Turkey, Kazakhstan (who all are neighbours and have large minority populations in KG) are currently all net purchasers of gold for treasure purposes as well as trading partners. They also see gold as a strategic "liquid currency" when it is in the form of gold bars locked away in their treasury rather that dissipated throughout the Tien Shan mountains. The stars are in alignment.
Chaarat (CGH) are again hosting the Kyrgyz Republic Investment Forum with the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development at EBRD offices at the end of June. They did this last year and are obviously cementing their connections with KG government and the EBRD. Rumoured that there is also a tie-up with Highland Gold (HG) who have a prospective gold mine in KG that is ready to go but needs finance. HG listed in AIM but with Roman Abramovich currently persona non grata in the UK (see today's news) their KG mine may not be in a position to raise the 300m to put the 3m+ oz mine into production. CGH just happen to be in the right place at the right time with the Martin "A" team ready to execute their plans to reach 1m ozs per year. It's all adding up. Our wait could be handsomely rewarded. Happy days.
I have been invest in CGH since 2011 and have never been more excited the future of the company. It seems the posturing by Centerra has subsided and the real talking is going on behind closed doors. With the freeze on CGH shares continuing we shareholders can only wait. However, work is continuing on the Chaarat mine site and the 2018 step out drilling is progressing. We now have the A team in place and our prospects are looking good. I suggest you liquidate some of your other holding and have some funds available to perhaps participate in a possible rights issue that might favour existing shareholders.
This guy looks like a fake and could be a Centerra plant. He comes out of the blue, he only registered on LSE forums this week and has made no other comments on any other companies. He has no shareholding in CGH. He works in the analysis industry and invests a lot in mining. He says he has no agenda here "simply sharing his personal views with us all. Can he please point to any other posts on another forum where he shares his views.
What did you expect. Martin was in his twenties when he was involved in some of the largest deals in Russia. He has built up a fortune (listed as one of UK based richest men) based on large projects with a government element. KG Republic is a former Russian controlled state which is now dependent on revenue for +10% of it's GDP on Kumtor. Kumtor is operated by a Canadian company who, having been savaged by the KG government for control, have effectively stopped investing in Kumtor... operating mines need continued investment... so much so that the existing mine life is indicated as only a few years... though it has vast reserved not yet included into the mine plan. MA sees opportunity to consolidate mines in KG (with government assistance), but first he needs a vehicle. He finds Chaarat, originally discovery by Russian engineers which is controlled by a week management team. He takes a small stake and starts to built and gains effective control of the company but needs to keep it in the public domain because he will eventually require funding that is best done through a private vehicle. Keeps concert party stake just below 50% (36% he controls directly), so that he can maintain control but not breach any market rules. Over the last year MA has put together a world class mining team (including many ex Kumtor) and has been schmoozing the KG government to the extent that he has underwrites a conference with the European Development Bank (another planned this year) to help generate investment into KG. He developed a full blown management team for the Chaarat mine but also has a Main Board over that which looks odd until he reveals his plan. His main board looks like one of the Footsie major miners and with this deal they are ideally setup to replicate with a number independently managed mines. He outlines his plans to consolidate precious metal mining in the FSU area and states they want to be producing 1m oz AU in a few years... by acquisition. Aren't you glad you put your money with MA. I am.
I am an active private investor with a wide portfolio of investments in the PM area. In my view one of the key risking in mining is having all your eggs in one basket. That means individual investors should have not have too much invested in one particular company or mining district. Spread your money around. Likewise a company should have more than one deposit. The risk of problems when putting a mine in to place are at there greatest on a single project. This is why many individual mines fail to get the best deal when looking for financing and dilution can be a problem for us little guys. Once operating the next key driver of the share price is either dividends or growth. This means different things to different investors. However, the Board of Directors determine which policy the company will pursue and this usually comes down to who is calling the shots. I have no idea what Martin A. will want to do but... he is extremely wealthy and from his biog. has largely built his fortune helping others build their businesses. I am guessing that at the age of around 50 he wants to build something of his own (with his concert party friends - on board as investors). I am sure he is aware of the risks of operating a single mine also. Therefore it is not too much of a leap to suggest he will want to diversify if possible. The clincher for me is that the team he has so far put together, includes top geologists as well as mine builders. The perfect kind of team to go on building a PM MINING BUSINESS. Otherwise why go to all this trouble for a little extra cash when you have $100M's already. I don't think he will sell us out, if he does it will not be sold cheaply, therefore my logic leads me to him using Chaarat his vehicle to do something big in the PM business. I'm sticking round for the ride.
I believe Martin A. had plans to take a larger stake and become the majority controlling force behind Chaarat when he decided to let it be known that he was involved and set up his holding vehicle. Prior to that I think he was an interested private investor learning about the PM industry and how it operates. As a Russian speaker with a lot of east European experience and contacts it was a good fit for him to look at an under valued major resource that was being controlled by weak management. Dekel's failed attempts to develop Chaarat as a prospective bid target was fatally flawed. However by raising expectations and considerable funds, over $100m, he went on to produce increased resource but ****edoff his initial investors. It took someone with patience and deep pocket to find away to unlock Dekel's grip. Martin A. is building a new team of gold mining specialist who have experience in EXACTLY this type of resource. It is now also clear that the financing is being worked on with a view to have production at the earliest possible date using industry specialists that the new team have already worked with. The next update on the Oxide Open pit resource is just icing on a cake that just keeps getting bigger. It all bodes well that Martin A. is getting his own people in to run this operation without him, allowing him time to look to add more mines that are in need of his kind of skills. I'm sure he is aware that owning more than one operating gold mine limits your risk and has a multiplier effect on the base valuation of each part. Expect the current Chaarat operations to be just the beginning. Small investor should be getting onboard now as the recent price gains have obviously been fuelled by these long term insiders who have left good companies to join this one. The best kind of due diligence you can get.
His lack of actual mining experience was only trumped by his arrogance and complete inability to come up with a plan to get the best out of a fantastic opportunity. He has been rewarded handsomely over the last 10 years for just sitting literally on a gold mine. He put very little in and took masses out and enjoyed the limelight whilst burning through a mountain of shareholders cash. He has left with more than he deserves and the manner of his departure show we have a Chairman who does the right things and does them well. Good riddance. The "new" board has all the ingredients we need. Really looking forward to positive early announcements that are the hallmark of the chairman and a very prosperous 2018 for us all.
I am a very long term investor in the precious metals space including actual metal, so am always looking at trends and opportunities in this area. There are many companies follow but I am always looking closely at the reserves and how they are calculated. Then the management, especially the geo's and mining engineers, and their track record. The hardest to judge are those who are explorers but this is where the biggest opportunities exist. There are lots of good explorers out there but simply none with the scale and grade that Chaarat has. I never focus on the day to day share price since this is just a function of liquidity and the sentiment of small, usually event driven, investors. Having said that I also look at my tax situation before the end year and take my full tax free allowance and bear in mind the 30 day trading rule! (see my past posts on this issue on this board to confirm this). Finally comes the finance. Usually the money will find the project if the senior management are experienced. Chaarat's problem has always been inept senior management. You only had to listen to any Dekel presentation to hear flimflam and a lack of detail. That is not to say that he isn't an accomplishe manager but he has never taken a mine to production. Once he had exhausted his options in finding a buyer for the whole business at any reasonable price he had know where to go (the Chinese DFS being the final straw). Hence the 5p sp and obviously derisory bid earlier this year. How any of you went all in then? Step forward Martin Andersson and in 9 months the prospects for the business are transform. Of course the resource and the gold price are about the same but the sentiment produced by the new management is a whole new opportunity. Chaarat is now commited to going to production with a team that has a track record and the final piece is raising the finance. MA is obviously an expert in finance so trust in him to get the best deal. As Chairman (where he is obligated to be doing the best for ALL shareholders)and with over 1/3rd of the current equity his future is intertwined with those who have only a few shares. Trade short term if you must and take advantage of timing sentiment but don't miss out on this Elephant by looking too short term.
Martin A. Placed about 500th in recent Sunday Times Rich List 300+M. He has currently invested about 25-30M in CGH. Has brought all his mates along and is running the show. He wont want this not to succeed due to lack of finance. Chaarat will now go to production with this team on board...Guaranteed.
The two 3.9m trades were obviously one trade, probably off the market at an agreed price with the market maker getting the difference 0.1p (that's 390,000p) for doing the arranging! We'll know soon enough if it was part of the concert party or a director since they would have to be declared. My guess smart investor building up a position over time selling to large institution who only buy in large amounts. This would mean that large buyers are coming in and are prepared to pay above the asking price to get in. These people are long term investors which means the liquidity is getting smaller so prices might drift. However, will the recent announcements of quality mine builders indicating that CGH is going headlong into production. With one of UK's richest men as Chairman and board including ex-Goldman Sachs precious metals expert and a bevvy of money men in their declared concert party CGH has all the people in place to finish the job. They have even lined up funding for building the mine and these shares could have been bought by these financiers. It has been the smoothest of takeovers with the two Martins now at the helm and the original gang of three Palmer-Tompkinson, Dekel and Alex?? either gone or given non core positions, but still tied-in to the future prospects of the business. Take a look at any precious metals company that goes into production... they all have massive uplift when first material is produced. CGH will be no exception. Current valuation is <$100m based on 16p my guess is within the next 2 years it will be valued at >$500m therefore I expect share price to be north of 100p in this time frame. This is based on size of resource (6+m ozs) and quality of management. All you need is money to invest over this time frame and patience.
CGH is moving upwards because the two Martin's (board directors) are still buying - as recorded in RNS - as well as their concert party members, listed in earlier messages. Furthermore other funds are adding to their positions such as UBS. In the last month the Chairman has bought at 23.12p putting that as the new floor for a buyout. Also the funding arrangement was a loan of £15m convertible to shares at 30p with the two Martins only allowing themselves 5% each of this. It was fully taken up in a couple of days - perhaps all agreed before offering. Though this is potentially dilutional it puts more of the shares into the hands of the Chairman and his friends including Goldman Sachs executives. I think the chairman is running this company and his financial moves are underpinning a future large money raising based on debt (not dilution all) and to use Chaarat as a vehicle to get a full listing. Remember his background in Russian Governmental sell offs etc and his recent meetings with the President of Kyrgyzistan. This guy is a mover and a shaker and morethan likely able to get the full value out of the resource which may I remind you is World Class at over 6m ozs at grades over 3g's and this is only on the first part of a much larger mineral trend. Current price on that basis is only a quarter to a third of a valuation if he can pull this off. Incidentally this would only then reach the price that CGH was trading at about 6 years ago. Lookout for any news to backup my thesis. I'm all in and staying for the ride.
Now is not the time to sell. Word has it in The City that the Concert Party has been looking to buy large scale holdings off the market. They have also been having talks with Senior Gold Producers which can only mean they are looking at a potential near term sale. Clever these Goldman Sachs bods. This is a time of low interest rates and Senior Gold Producers are light weight when it comes to life of existing mines. The need to future proof their businesses by having a steady stream of projects at various stages of development is paramount to these guys. A large scale gold deposits like Chaarat is very very rare therefore of real interest to this type of operation. Our CEO has always been out of his depth with these guys but our Chairman and his buddies eat and drink at the same tables as well as knowing their way around the city. See https://shar.es/1QggY4 for a taste of what could happen next... 67% premium buyout of Exeter by GoldCorp announced today