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I think CB will major on FB at the AGM and we should have some indication of better results by then. I suspect CB will play the card of "still waiting for results" re RC and try and use delaying tactics re copper plays.
He will do his usual, "don't look over there, look over here"
I think it highly likely, probably inevitable, that the POC will be going over $12K but I think the timescales are going to take longer than many would want. I think it understandable many may have sold up as things are not happening in the previous time scales and will no doubt take longer.
I'm of the view no news is bad news, or at least not good news as CB would be shouting about it. Thats re Copper plays but we will no doubt get good news re FB when the actual profit is stated in an RNS. None of that appears to be priced in so I'm expecting the SP to move up Sharpley by end of the year due to FB.
I reckon he'll contract a dose of Covid and cry off...
The AGM is gonna be a ball if there is no news to lift the SP soon
We have the same line of thought Jezz :)
I have wondered that Billy. The results from the separation study should be known by the BoD by now, Bird told us 6 weeks ago they were almost complete. Has AA been privy to the news? who knows.
The issues with that line of thought is the Bird factor...It's more likely Bird is keeping his gob shut ATM as it's spent the last two years spouting 'facts' to the market that may have turned out to be fairytales (or lets just be straight and calls them lies)
Yes I did, but it doesn't fit with his usual MO, If at all possible, he would be shouting from the rooftops if anything positive was happening.
Hope I'm wrong, ATM he's f*cked up my retirement plans.
You ever thought his maintaining radio silence becasue his been told to or has to?
Hi LW,
The supply of copper as described by the various commentators and experts is a hard restriction as far as I can see. There doesn't seem to be any change to the narrative of +5years for significant new supplies to come on line..... not sure how much flexibility the scrap copper can add to this....perhaps someone cant point us to a chart.
Th demand is obviously the softer element but the longer it takes for an increase in price to spur new investment..... then surely this just means the copper spike will be higher when demand finally hardens.
Personally can't see demand staying soft forever... but people have to decide if they agree with this.
One million sale at 1.42 well below the bid . Unfortunately not looking great !
Yes but thats getting harder and harder for him to do- everyone here is wise to his tactics now.
Which is why I think he joined twitter
It has always been the same pattern in his businesses.
Summer is Europe/horse races - winter is when what little progress there is, gets done.
For a man close to 80, running 5 AIM 'businesses', its no wonder his businesses have such terrible records
Could it be that the much predicted increase in price of copper just isn't going to happen ? It has been explained that it will be the shortage that will lift the price. Despite the experts' views, there doesn't seem to be that shortage evident yet. Of course if by 2030 everyone had no choice but to drive around in EVs then there would be a shortage (unless another technology came along). Maybe there will just not be the seismic shift to copper usage as the shortage (and price lift that would cause) is not considered worth while. At $15000/ton, maybe the figures just don't make good reading to those with the big money to plan ahead like that. Its possibly a bit of a catch 22.... at todays prices the EV /green movement will see copper usage balloon, but at the prices the shortage would create maybe not so ? It could just be that the unavailability of copper in the amounts required will see that it just wont happen any time soon... if at all.
CB has gone quiet on the XTR front, POC isn't going the way he hoped, news overdue (surprise!) I'm hoping I'm wrong but he usually goes out and buys some crock of sh*t to enthuse about to encourage new investors.
And we'll have to pay for it....
I don't think POC will improve until next year as we will have head wins with the global economic slump for another 6 to 12 months. Thats why I doubt CB will be talking about the economics at RC for some time imho. I doubt RC is economic at this POC and even if were, it will be better to wait until early next year to talk about RC economics when POC should be much higher
Good news is that POG is much more important for us atm than POC as we have a Gold mine in production. That looks like it will remain circa $2K this year.
I'm still expecting sp to move to low / mid 3p's by end of year because of FB income, but we can forget about any Bushranger sale for 18 months + imho
Future copper prices don't seem to be very exciting. What do the rest of the board think?
Colin's favourite day for an RNS tomorrow. Wakey wakey, Colin. Let's be 'avng you!
More "Presentation" than "Interview". It's a way of getting over CB's promotional information in a format that's easy to understand.
It would help if the Roast guys were more demanding in their questioning. Instead they lead him on which over time undermines the credibility of the interviews for many. But at the moment any news would be gratefully received.
>>I've been saying "this time it will be different" re Cb's latest forward guidance for many years !
That is a point that only echoes the historical financial position that the company have been in, with more recently on point that now, with a good ‘initial’ revenue stream coming in from the new plant after 5 odd years “waiting.”
I say initial, as there is further development potential to treat all ore types and increase throughput with those higher sulphide grades. Ultimately, that will have opened the door to exploit the other deposits that have declared mineral reserves and then some!
Things ‘will’ be different off the back of Manica alone, with an ability to now start growing the company.
I do feel CB is unfairly hammered, folk seem to think it’s all his fault, considering going into a major recession. He has a whole board of experienced directors that are no doubt supportive of any strategy going forward.
But I also appreciate the fact I have not been here as long as many others that have suffered lots of dilution in that time.
With respect ✊
"The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think"
And that's the $64,00 question (or that should be $64M question !)
Would the next wave see a more serious approach and "it really would be different this time" with CB.
I've been saying "this time it will be different" re Cb's latest forward guidance for many years !
Of course, may be next time it really will be different ! If you wait long enough and have enough money to keep betting on 9 Red - you should eventually win .
But whether you win more than you have already lost is another question :)
Andrew. Agreed, that does sum at AIM.
In the current market l am not sure if Colin could raise money on good terms. Hence why everything on the slow burn. AIM exploration stocks are in the doldrums and for all the hype about copper shortages, 4.75% in Nationwide is more tempting.
I would not disagree with those points Andrew, I can just see the next run when market conditions turn, being of a different approach to PR. The first wave was a desperate attempt to capture the imagination of investors to believe in this magical BR story that you simply wouldn’t want to miss out on. I certainly believe for good reason too.
The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think, suitable to attract bigger investors that are less risk averse. if the company can offer value to the market from the status of up to date assets, without the need for more cash from holders then that will be great.
But even If all is well with the next batch of news there is still a potential £4m deficit in strategic operating cash, so Colin may still need to ramp it up again. But at the same time have some reasonable to good fundamentals to back it up and underpin a higher market cap this time that simply wasn’t the case before.
I am of course making my own assumptions that we simply do not know yet, and am basing an investment case over 18 months or so ‘from’ when the company finally show their hand. I think that would be a fair time frame to see further developments.
HZ
Another way of saying what your saying is that only a very small number of people know what CB is really like, so if we start to attract new investors they may naively and blindly believe what CB says re forward guidance.
That may well happen with a bit of good news to start the ball rolling. May be starting the new interest interest from FB income being announced?
If that starts the "new investors" coming in and a re rate of the sp, I wonder how many who are currently invested will take that as an opportunity to jump out, leaving the new naïve investors to deal with the consequences of an SP fall after actual results don't match CB's forward guidance? Rinse and repeat .....
Actually, I may have just described exactly how the Aim market works :)
>>The problem is many now don't believe any forward guidance timescales , and for good reason.
That could certainly be considered for the many that have been or are still involved in the company, or have previously just researched it. . But that is only a tiny proportion of the potential investor base out there. Most juniors are unknowns, even to the investors of the hundreds of others small cap mining companies on AIM.
Would be stretching it to say that maybe one percent have ever even heard of Colin Bird or even the various companies he runs.
The PR, if timed right, with a steady flow of positive news supported by clear fundamentals will start to attract the next wave of investors going into the next bull run when global conditions are right. Just being up on the LSE leaderboard and pinged to the ‘many’ thousands of subscribers after decent news will attract interest.
I agree on BR Andrew, as the longer it’s held off, the less chance of a further cash raise.