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Bozi, in my opinion this will be an agreed deal following private i.e off-market negotiations with all interested parties. Low bidders will be immediately discounted. I do not see this turning out to be a contested bid undertaken in the public eye. In other words your observation about lower bids sparking off greater interest is not the case.
If we end up announcing a deal I do not anticipate there being any counter bidders, for the simple reason they will have had their chance during the negotiation phase, and I do not believe there will be any left of field buyers emerging once we've gone public. The list of potential buyers is relatively small and our advisors will have covered every base.
A great example of a bidding war given by Mather in the past was Voiseys Bay.
Not ramping just an historical example of what can happen. This was sighted by Mather in the past.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-story-of-voiseys-bay-the-auction-part-2-of-3/
Red - yes, that's exactly how an auction works.
The lower the opening offer level the more chance you have of multiple suitors simply because the bidding is within their acceptable price range. Not all will have the means to stay the course, but it stimulates enough interest that the first offer is more likely to be countered.
I'm aware of how the Noront process played out. The point I'm trying to make is that Wyloo tried snagging the remaining shares at a modest 30% premium, a level that not many shareholders would have considered. BHP then upped the stakes significantly but you can infer they were simply trying to tempt Wyloo into paying more than they'd like, and they undoubtedly did. I have reservations about whether that deal would have gone through had the 75c BHP offer not been challenged.
I hope you're right. An open market price in the mid teens and no real purchasers of shares other than Jiangxi maintaining their stake is a little underwhelming. There's no reason anyone interested in an auction shouldn't be getting to 2.99% at the very least, particularly given the progress the company has made with the government agreement and licence renewal.
Morning HFM ….. interesting stuff thanks
I tend to agree with Mr Irwin
https://twitter.com/sghass3/status/1683578329163767808?s=46&t=XX3-iZapJ1HaXMFlnE7nKQ
Should see a bounce back towards 17p today after China announces support for its economy, and specifically the property sector...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/25/asia-markets.html
Luisa González polling well resulting in Fitch lowering their political risk index.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk/ecuador-gets-closer-august-election-correistas-are-leading-polls-11-07-2023
Useful poll tracker...
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-ecuadors-2023-presidential-election
Smikster ref your uneducated claim that bhp share holders wouldn't be happy.
your lack of research is embarrassing.
bhp invest in many many exploration companies,
its part of their strategy.
"In effect, BHP Xplor is a way for a big company to get involved in high-risk and potentially high-reward grassroots exploration at a minimal cost, without getting its corporate hands dirty in a way small companies can in frontier exploration.
Grubstaking a number of small explorers is also a strategy borrowed from the venture capital handbook of backing a number of start-ups, provide seed funding, and then hoping that some succeed while knowing that most will fail with profits from the winners washing away losses."
and your telling us all, only you know about mining. if it wasn't so sad, it would be laughable
"Doesn't a lower offer have more chance of attracting competition?"
Is that how you think takeovers work Bozi...?
Surely SOLG would only 'offer' themselves if they were in dire straits...?
And ni way would Nick or the CGP people countenance 28/35p...
In the case of Norint, Wyloo offered to acquire the shares they didn't have, for 31.5c (when the price was 24c)...BHP countered 55c Wyloo 70c, BHP 75c and then Wykol came back with a knockout 110c...a 360%premium to the Noront original SP and a 250% premium to Wyloos own original starting price...
Conclusion?
31.5c was derisory; BHP swiftly countered and a bidding war ensued in little over 4 months.
SOLG will not offer themselves to anyone, especially not at 28/35p...it would go against everything Nick has stood for.
Anyone offering less than 40/50p is courting a bidding war
Alpala will be the largest silver mine, 3rd largest gold mine and 6th largest copper mine on the planet.
Anyone making a derisory offer is inviting a raft if major players in...
After all, despite all the massive setbacks, RIO has stuck it out with Oyu Tolguei in remote Mongolua with challenging mining conditions, a rapacious Mongolian government and it's a more complex block cave than Alpala to boot.
Plus...a successful bidder gets Porvenir and 10/12 sext projects to boot with a material footprint in what will be a burgeoning Ecuadoruan mining industry at a time when copper could be heading back towards $5/lb and gold $3,000...
Best wishes
Smickster, have never said solg is a dud. Consistently said I expect to make a profit.
Have tried to counter your and others ridiculous claims on here.
Point in question your long list of positives posted yesterday.
Apart from the fact most of them don't stand up to scrutiny.
You neglected to mention
The upcoming election. (Quady may actually be wrong)
The Chinese economy causing commodity prices to drop
Not a scrap of evidence to show a takeover is even on the horizon
Still no agreements to safeguard any investment
The complete indifference to solg by the markets.
I'm afraid as always, we only want to read positives don't we smikster. No matter how flimsy they are
Novice, what I've learnt is the likes of quady do not reel me in.and the likes of you popping up from behind the curtains to support him, proves nothing.
The likes of quady posted on here yesterday implying only he, the font of all knowledge knows about mining and time scales.
But unfortunately as usual his posts don't stand up.
I know fmg very well
Discovery to production. and paying a dividend 5 years, share price then $2 today $20.
Solg discovery to mothballed appx 8 years, share price then 50p today 16 p.
He also showed his ability to post sh""te to prove his point. Why have an election, just ask quady
.
Get back behind the curtain novice, the bogey might get you. Or even worse if the UK get drawn into conflict with Russia who will you fight for
Slug seems neutered (not that he was ever potent, lol). Maybe all of the banning is finally taking it's toll? He'll learn to live in civil society eventually, I guess.
I am enjoying watching Quady land needy like an experienced fisherman and needy just keeps on biting Lolzzz 🎣🎣🎣
you'll learn one day needy...
I take your point DinnerMoney.
The run off however I don't think is a problem this time round.
No one is going to get 40% of the vote in the first round.
And Perez has lost support since last time round.
This is going to be an election about living standards, as though they have been rising, people want more.
Good afternoon DinnerMoney you are looking at the same polling article as I am.
Only Perez is against mining.
Last time he got just over 19%.
The poll shows only 10% this time.
Opinion has shifted.
I have no quotes to hand, but both major parties have talked about rebalancing the economy with the advent of new industries and inward investment.
In my opinion they will not make any decisions that makes investment in Ecuador difficult.
Well done NAL you called something right.
You also said the solg sp wad 50p in the last 5 years.
And while the monies that Franco and Bhp have thrown at us is pocket change for them I'm pretty sure they won't be thanked for wasting it by their shareholders
Especially as the world renowned NAL on lse has bee telling everyone all along that solg is a dud.
I see needalife you can't even read the question.
Yaku Perez has no chance.
I said a party with a chance of taking power.
He has no chance.
Look at the current polls.
Your answer is embarrassing.
Quady. You complete moron. What about him.
"Another strong contender is Yaku Pérez, an environmentalist who campaigns for indigenous rights and is hostile to oil and mining projects. He came third in the 2021 election."
What is the matter with you. Are you that blind to the facts.
I'm over you, put your head back in the sand, until your ready to face reality.
When comparing apples to chimpanzees would this be from a tasting perspective!!
I wonder what the political parties (though short term) manifestos I’ve read one leader is former military personnel (shesh !,) another anti mining and oil party (rely on eco tourism and selling bananas (or bread from Solg bakery) to pay off Ecuador debts.haven’t really seen other manifestos
The Noront Comparison should be dismissed out of hand whenever someone tries to use it..
Its like comparing apples with chimpanzees..
not a single trade for 3.5 hrs?
Red - nowhere am I saying that 28p would be fair or reasonable. I suppose I'm taking the view that I've lost the confidence that SOLG are going to do a deal that creates true value for shareholders, unless two suitors get into a bun fight and let the company off the hook.
I've questioned Bob Sangha and the likes of Irwin and the CGP crew all along. I don't have the faith in them that others do, although that seems to be ebbing away now in some quarters.
You have to be careful IMHO using Noront as your guide. There was a certain set of circumstances in play there as I've mentioned in the past and there was a clear motive to get Wyloo to follow their investment. With that in mind, a larger premium made sense.
Try looking at it another way. Doesn't a lower offer have more chance of attracting competition? Auction prices usually fall before they rise as interested parties bide their time.
Needalife here you are a chance to prove me wrong.
What party that has a chance of taking power would be bad news for Solgold.
All you have to do is name the party, how they are doing in the polls. Name the party leader and point us to any speech that individual has made that would have a negative effect on Ecuador's new mining industry.
You can't because such a scenario doesn't exist.
I appreciate that the all caps will make me appear angry, when I'm actually quite sanguine despite what the management have done to the share price, but this needs saying:
SOLGOLD ARE NOT NORONT.
Honest to God there is absolutely no way that red doesn't understand the critical differences. This is the only proof we need that red is a disgusting ramper, prying on the less intelligent people using this board. Lying about his millions of shares is one thing, but pretending there's a link to an established Canadian miner is deliberate and unpleasant. Same thing fort does weekly.
Smickster I was one of the first to call the snap election on here. To be met by quady bubble copperpot, fdjyn and others with the usual clueless wishfull thinking every thing will be OK. And the election is 2 years away. I was also one of the first to point out their was to be a referendum.
Same responce. As I said not one of your wishfull thinking claims stands up to scrutiny.
All we need now is a padmaster ditty or a manchild one liner to support you.
Sorry Bozi...cant agree...28p would be derisory and start a bidding war...
The first bid for Noront was 75c... (cf 23c)
Just another thing needalife knows nothing about.
Politics in Ecuador.