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We need to get a shift on bringing this Solgold story to a close, as when the Chinese economy tanks.. the knock on effects to the global economy will make the credit crunch seem like a minor issue. And it’s already started to happen. Metal prices are not going to be pretty.. we don’t want to be trying to flog this asset during a price bottom.
The information is out there already, it just doesn’t get much detailed coverage in mainstream news outlets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsZQL-_Y9CA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7En1hELQPc
People still seem to assume the Chinese are a limitless, economic dream… it’s debt situation is becoming a mess, much like the wests..
The joe bloggs channel does some superb videos on economic issues.. his analysis of China and Russia are excellent if you want a break from di_k measuring
It’s probably the knock on consequences of chinas economic fall that will be worse… when they can not prop up all the countries that are technically ready to default, it becomes a house of cards.. and as is always the case, the poorest are affected first and the most..
Let’s hope it is soon…. But to be fair, you have been saying it’s not far off for about a year now.. and now we are mothballed…
I expect India to assume the rising economic power as China starts to enter damage limitation
Be realistic Slug… how much are you expecting?
I expect no higher than 35p
Quady. I repeat, if you feel offended by his posts, don't fu""" ing read em.
But you can't can you, because if you didn't read them, you would have nothing to scream about.
Then you wouldn't be able to tell everyone how offended you are.
Go out tonight, go to a pub, get into some male company, enjoy the banter, you may have a nice evening.
It would be much better than looking out from behind the curtain to find the next crusade to go on.
Why do you not call out novice, with his manchild vile comments. Is it because the spineless little turd agrees with you. Just bear in mind your no1 supporter by his own admission supports putin.
How does that stand with your ridiculous holier than thou indignation
The only way it reaches 70 is if two parties go hammer and tongs for at least 3 bid rounds, which I consider to be unlikely.
Opening bid will be 28-32p. Someone will need to oppose it to push us into the 35-45p range I think will be successful.
45-50p if the original bidder makes a 2nd offer. 55-60 if the other party counters.
70p is just a dream…
What sort of spike do you see from any news of a JV?
25-28p and large numbers will bail out
That's about right Orthern.
It'll be sold off on the day and within 3 sessions will be back to the same level as pre news.
Sorry Bozi...cant agree...28p would be derisory and start a bidding war...
The first bid for Noront was 75c... (cf 23c)
I appreciate that the all caps will make me appear angry, when I'm actually quite sanguine despite what the management have done to the share price, but this needs saying:
SOLGOLD ARE NOT NORONT.
Honest to God there is absolutely no way that red doesn't understand the critical differences. This is the only proof we need that red is a disgusting ramper, prying on the less intelligent people using this board. Lying about his millions of shares is one thing, but pretending there's a link to an established Canadian miner is deliberate and unpleasant. Same thing fort does weekly.
Red - nowhere am I saying that 28p would be fair or reasonable. I suppose I'm taking the view that I've lost the confidence that SOLG are going to do a deal that creates true value for shareholders, unless two suitors get into a bun fight and let the company off the hook.
I've questioned Bob Sangha and the likes of Irwin and the CGP crew all along. I don't have the faith in them that others do, although that seems to be ebbing away now in some quarters.
You have to be careful IMHO using Noront as your guide. There was a certain set of circumstances in play there as I've mentioned in the past and there was a clear motive to get Wyloo to follow their investment. With that in mind, a larger premium made sense.
Try looking at it another way. Doesn't a lower offer have more chance of attracting competition? Auction prices usually fall before they rise as interested parties bide their time.
The Noront Comparison should be dismissed out of hand whenever someone tries to use it..
Its like comparing apples with chimpanzees..
not a single trade for 3.5 hrs?
"Doesn't a lower offer have more chance of attracting competition?"
Is that how you think takeovers work Bozi...?
Surely SOLG would only 'offer' themselves if they were in dire straits...?
And ni way would Nick or the CGP people countenance 28/35p...
In the case of Norint, Wyloo offered to acquire the shares they didn't have, for 31.5c (when the price was 24c)...BHP countered 55c Wyloo 70c, BHP 75c and then Wykol came back with a knockout 110c...a 360%premium to the Noront original SP and a 250% premium to Wyloos own original starting price...
Conclusion?
31.5c was derisory; BHP swiftly countered and a bidding war ensued in little over 4 months.
SOLG will not offer themselves to anyone, especially not at 28/35p...it would go against everything Nick has stood for.
Anyone offering less than 40/50p is courting a bidding war
Alpala will be the largest silver mine, 3rd largest gold mine and 6th largest copper mine on the planet.
Anyone making a derisory offer is inviting a raft if major players in...
After all, despite all the massive setbacks, RIO has stuck it out with Oyu Tolguei in remote Mongolua with challenging mining conditions, a rapacious Mongolian government and it's a more complex block cave than Alpala to boot.
Plus...a successful bidder gets Porvenir and 10/12 sext projects to boot with a material footprint in what will be a burgeoning Ecuadoruan mining industry at a time when copper could be heading back towards $5/lb and gold $3,000...
Best wishes
Smikster ref your uneducated claim that bhp share holders wouldn't be happy.
your lack of research is embarrassing.
bhp invest in many many exploration companies,
its part of their strategy.
"In effect, BHP Xplor is a way for a big company to get involved in high-risk and potentially high-reward grassroots exploration at a minimal cost, without getting its corporate hands dirty in a way small companies can in frontier exploration.
Grubstaking a number of small explorers is also a strategy borrowed from the venture capital handbook of backing a number of start-ups, provide seed funding, and then hoping that some succeed while knowing that most will fail with profits from the winners washing away losses."
and your telling us all, only you know about mining. if it wasn't so sad, it would be laughable
Should see a bounce back towards 17p today after China announces support for its economy, and specifically the property sector...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/25/asia-markets.html
Luisa González polling well resulting in Fitch lowering their political risk index.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/country-risk/ecuador-gets-closer-august-election-correistas-are-leading-polls-11-07-2023
Useful poll tracker...
https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-ecuadors-2023-presidential-election
Morning HFM ….. interesting stuff thanks
I tend to agree with Mr Irwin
https://twitter.com/sghass3/status/1683578329163767808?s=46&t=XX3-iZapJ1HaXMFlnE7nKQ
Red - yes, that's exactly how an auction works.
The lower the opening offer level the more chance you have of multiple suitors simply because the bidding is within their acceptable price range. Not all will have the means to stay the course, but it stimulates enough interest that the first offer is more likely to be countered.
I'm aware of how the Noront process played out. The point I'm trying to make is that Wyloo tried snagging the remaining shares at a modest 30% premium, a level that not many shareholders would have considered. BHP then upped the stakes significantly but you can infer they were simply trying to tempt Wyloo into paying more than they'd like, and they undoubtedly did. I have reservations about whether that deal would have gone through had the 75c BHP offer not been challenged.
I hope you're right. An open market price in the mid teens and no real purchasers of shares other than Jiangxi maintaining their stake is a little underwhelming. There's no reason anyone interested in an auction shouldn't be getting to 2.99% at the very least, particularly given the progress the company has made with the government agreement and licence renewal.
A great example of a bidding war given by Mather in the past was Voiseys Bay.
Not ramping just an historical example of what can happen. This was sighted by Mather in the past.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-story-of-voiseys-bay-the-auction-part-2-of-3/
Bozi, in my opinion this will be an agreed deal following private i.e off-market negotiations with all interested parties. Low bidders will be immediately discounted. I do not see this turning out to be a contested bid undertaken in the public eye. In other words your observation about lower bids sparking off greater interest is not the case.
If we end up announcing a deal I do not anticipate there being any counter bidders, for the simple reason they will have had their chance during the negotiation phase, and I do not believe there will be any left of field buyers emerging once we've gone public. The list of potential buyers is relatively small and our advisors will have covered every base.
Personally I can’t see this size asset selling for less than £1.5bn.
Yes I know some will see that as optimistic but that is what it’s worth. Doesn’t mean that a buyer will be found in the world situation of today but history suggests under that they get a bargain.
SOLG are rare and unique in that they have 100% ownership (uncomplicated) of a Tier 1 copper/gold/silver asset. These are rare indeed and super majors often have to buy up much bigger mid tier companies to even get close to Tier 1 style resources. Add to this that SOLG's footprint in Ecuador is one of the largest a this comes at a time when new mining licences in Ecuador look highly unlikely. Anglo, Rio, FMG, Newmont, BHP, Codelco and others are all present in Ecuador and it's only Codelco that seem to have a sizeable asset in development. All these majors have been trying to find what SOLG discovered long ago. It's becoming harder for them to explore. Add to this, you have the likes of smart investors like Gina R buying up important land in and around cascabel. Franco/Chinese chucking 100m+ into SOLG.
I think some of you need to wake up. Too much following the share price and not enough following of the asset.
The market is useless at valuing companies at the moment. It's embarrassing. Wood Group were £900m market cap or 90p or so before Apollo made a bid for them at 240p. The market got it wrong to the tune of £1.1bln. That deal fell through in the end but the point is... the sp level today has zero reflection on where it will end in a bid situation. Noront example simply shows another poor woeful market valuation prior to a bid.
Ultimately, SOLG's bid price will be £4bln+ because whoever is buying it is also committing to build the asset which we know is going to cost £2bln to £3bln. It's like a buying house with potential. There's lots of money in it if the renovation all goes well but not much in it if it doesn't go well. Sometimes Majors are happy to buy the house that's already done... and the combination of smaller mines or assets end up returning the same profit levels but with less risk. But with SOLG, the risk of Alpala is offset through an extensive footprint and exploration folio which presents any buyer of SOLG with many opportunities to strike gold or copper. There are not many opportunities like SOLG and it won't go cheap. So forget the current share price... it's irrelevant and reflects nothing more than a weak and pony market that forgot how to value companies a couple of years ago. Post covid brain fog is what the markets have unless of course it's a tech stock and then that's ok to price it in the multi billions even without a penny made.
Oh fort... As night follows day! Same old irrelevant claptrap.
£4bn all in? Really hope not, as Reuters reporting £3.8bn investment needed... £200m for us is about 6p a share!
This rampy nonsense is, at least, transparent enough that it won't cause anyone to invest their cash. Long road to go, don't let the snake oil sales team have you believe there are quick fixes or shortcuts.
Bozi
Red ramper isn’t the sharpest cookie, his pips have been squeezed a lot since he was ramping in the 30s so a final sale price, IF it ever happens which is unlikely given current situation, of mid 20s won’t help the red ramper.
You are absolutely right about low initial Offer’s that’s exactly how eBay works and they seem to know a bit more about auctions than the red ramper…….
AgArCu why do you constantly lie on this forum.
You have no idea how to value a company or you do and are constantly lying.
If you wish to use the valuation against NPV do so
But do it in a staged approach and thus cost/profit over the first 25 year term.
No one has to put up 3.8 billion on day one.
I repeat why are you lying about this share.
I am guessing you are in at a higher price or not invested at all.
But nothing you say makes sense.
Why not leave people to make their own investment decisions and you make yours.
But stop with the lies.