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Started: Pauliewonder, Today 07:04
Last post: Mavern, Today 13:31
Many mining exploration companies hope for just one off-take MOU, Blencowe confidently expect numerous, so we can be sure that those selected will be offering competitive terms. Add to this the near surface already proven quality graphite and the DFC project financing from the US and the downside risk seems negligible
Something else that inspires confidence is the 25% tariff the I.S will impose from 2026 on Chinese natural graphite imports...
BRES......flying in stealth mode for now.
Another great interview.
This guy just inspires confidence - he's clear, visionary and not afraid of signposting risks.
I was very interested to hear his thoughts on Chinese producers looking to shift production outside of China to circumvent the export restrictions.
Definitely backable.
Offtake MOUs potentially in the next 1-3 months, hopefully that piques some interest.
#BRES Video 🎥 CEO Mike Ralston outlines the progress at the Orom-Cross #Graphite project to @MiningOnline, with upcoming milestones to include offtake agreements, feasibility work, funding discussions & strengthening the concept of downstream production
https://t.co/BfSPOARr7G
Started: Spank.theMonkey, 2 Apr 2024 10:48
Last post: Pauliewonder, 22 May 2024 20:31
Reserved,
That’s a very useful comparison, thanks for posting.
What I was struck with on the recent interview with MR was the complete and utter change of direction from being your a graphite concentrate producer to processing downstream SPG. Previously he had suggested that being a producer of concentrate would yield very good returns for the company, and clearly this is reflected by the PFS. However, MR was clearly excited about the prospect of doing something different and addressing an area in which almost no western firms operate. For those that weren’t on the call, he mentioned that producing graphite concentrate isn’t the issue, its downstream SPG processing and refining the concentrate into something that can be used within EV batteries that is causing the west a major head ache. As such, this is an area that BRES need to get involved in.
Clearly, BRES don’t have the knowledge and experience of being able to execute downstream SPG without a joint venture, again, referenced on the call. However, he seemed to think that processing downstream SPG would be a game changer for BRES, which for me is very exciting because the NPV is huge at present (under PFS), so area I am keen to find out more on.
A final point is that the all in cost of producing graphite concentrate is likely to drop from around $500 per tonne to just over $400 per tonne. This again is likely to have a material impact on the already impressive NPV and return profile of the project. So even if BRES start with a 5k tonne per annum plant (lets say for the first year), then this would still yield a huge return (given the current market cap.
Say cost per tonne to BRES: $400
Selling price per tonne: $1,100
Net return per tonne: $700
Net return x5k tonnes: $3.5m
BRES Market Cap: $15m
Return % vs Market Cap: 23.3%
Pauliewonder
With reference to your informative list of "short term factors", I note below some data from studies produced for Greenroc:
PEA for the mine reported an after-tax NPV8 of US$179M with IRR of 26.7%.
The feasibility study for an anode plant reported an after-tax NPV8 of US$545M with IRR of 25.3%.
This demonstrates the potential for a multiple of 3x for downstream processing.
Some good points there Paulie. Let's see what happens. I'm certainly not ruling out a re-rate before the DFS, but not expecting it until afterwards. Bres has always been a bit of a slow burner but we can be agreed that it's time will surely come. GLA
There are a number of short term factors that will cause a re rate:
1. Off take agreements - yes not binding until DFS is completed (as we all knew) but it can hugely de risk the project - and by the way they can potential forward sell to secure finance. To suggest that this will not impact the share price is missing the point in my view. If they were to land say POSCO, then not only does it validate the product, but it secures an indicated route to commercialisation and opens up possible financing. This is as close as two weeks away from the first non binding agreement.
I tell you what legal, at the BRES £1 share price party (which we absolutely should celebrate if it ever gets there), If we get an a non bonding off take agreement with POSCO and we don’t bag that day, I will buy your drinks all night. Vice versa too.
2. SPG - a game changer make no doubt. The PFS showed $492 NPV life of mine. This will be smashed with a downstream SPG facility (and I mean well and truly smashed) - news on this likely in short term.
3. Additional drilling - this is likely to increase life of mine, increase NPV and potentially expose other high quality results (outside Camp Lode). The DFC are encouraging this and will likely provide financing on this. Let’s face it, it they want US to have this resource otherwise they wouldn’t be involved. So it’s logical that they will look to encourage BREs to increase it
4. Graphite shortage - slipping into a supply deficit, will impact graphite prices
5. Funding - if they can outline how they will fund the mine, this will re rate the share price. The market is still worried about dilution. Wrongly so in this case because MR has said he will only raise through small and well timed placing a, not to retail as we are seeing with many AIM and small main listed firms at the moment
6. There are lots of other factors that can cause a re rate including further testing of results, completion of DFS, further financing agreed with the other DFC dept, securing, further strategic investment, updated broker notes, market cottons onto how under rated we are.
And by the way, MR didn’t say it was Q1 2025 for DFS completion for definite. What he said was Q4 2024 but there are some items that are out of his control that “may” slip into Q1 2025.
We have to remember that BRES doesn’t have a £100m market cap. We sit just over £10m, although Mike did say that at the point the DFS is completed (say eight months ish), he expects this to be worth £50-100m. That’s a x4 to x7bagger from here if it goes as MR suggests. So I’m not categorically saying you are wrong Legal, I just have a materially different outlook.
Correct Zapsnap, and as I previously mentioned that bulk sample is almost certain to be of very high-quality based on the previous sample test results taken in the US and in Wuhan, China
Started: Catbert, 22 May 2024 09:09
Last post: Catbert, 22 May 2024 09:09
I'm not entirely convinced that it is beyond the wit of the USA to process graphite.
Given time and resource there is more than a decent chance that the USA can replicate what others are doing.
Started: PaulFG, 16 May 2024 15:06
Last post: Olderandwiser, 17 May 2024 13:42
I'm assuming that if/when BRES goes into a JV with a leading Chinese spg manufacturer at a location in Uganda not far from Orom Cross, that the Chinese outfit with their IP and access to finance, will be in the driving seat from a control point of view, leaving Bres as the offtake supplier. Just can't see Bres running the show, even if it is still around at that point in time.
In that case, what's the difference to the USA from a strategic pov of imposing extra tariffs on Chinese-made graphite flakes from China, or from them in Uganda?
Https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/us-hikes-tariffs-to-further-isolate-china-from-its-ev-supply-chain-ambitions
"Beginning in 2026 the US will apply a tariff of 25% on Chinese natural flake graphite imports, a move aimed at reining in China’s near-monopoly in the graphite used for making batteries for electric vehicles and shows that it intends to diversify anode supplies away from China. "
Last post: Legalwolf, 14 May 2024 21:03
Don't know if that large trade was a delayed buy or sell, but there has been some selling, which is to be expected as we are at the top of the trading range. But this does need some buyers to come in at these levels, otherwise it's back into the trading range.
Perhaps there'll be another 'strategic' investment closer to an offtake agreement ...
I was also expecting some selling from those 4p entries or people locked in below their buy in price not wanting to take a hit on exit price but we've not seen it here the only sell today looks to be the 5.77 £12k delayed trade. Looks like we've just ran out of buyers or else we'd have another leg up as not much stock available at all.
There's the problem though there's no buyers about unfortunately to take us out of this trend line
Expect 4p holders may well be taking some profits here - good that new longs are able to enter. I have to say I looked at this last night, the MCAP rather than the SP and decided to take a decent topup chunk today even if I had to pay above 6p, the potential is too great here and momentum will get this noticed if nothing else.
So BRES is one of the few stocks where I've actually averaged-up, even if it drops back I'll use it as another opp to topup - nearly into H2 2024.
Need it to hold though, as previously when it's got to this level, it's fallen back. But there has been talk of the persistent seller being finished? Let's see
Started: Y33ter, 10 May 2024 16:30
Last post: Pauliewonder, 13 May 2024 22:44
I would expect that these are simply balancing trades and nothing to get excited about. It happens on most stocks at some point.
Small tradesToday
Looking at the series of tiny trades at the start and end of the day, I can't help wondering if someone gave their lottery numbers to their stockbroker by mistake.
The Moliniiscul
Understood PFG.
What's with all these miniscule trades? See them quite often these days and they just have me wondering.
LW, yes I know, but I see DFS as a major derisking value adding event.
Started: Lincolnshire, 12 May 2024 16:58
Last post: Pauliewonder, 12 May 2024 19:33
Thanks for posting Lincolnshire. I think BRES will soon start to be mentioned in these types of articles, with agreements in place with tier one offtakers. That will help with getting traction and exposure. We could be as close as four weeks away. Stars are definitely aligning. If ever there was a time to buy it’s now.
Everything is starting to align for bres, excellent article from Korea
https://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20240512050145
Lots of good information on X.
Started: go_ly_dow, 10 May 2024 09:23
Last post: nc10g09, 10 May 2024 15:39
1-4 months for offtakes as stated by Mike yesterday
Offtake news next week lets see :)
Bigger volumes now getting paid at 6p+, other underrated aspect here is our small float which is another by-product of Mike's excellent financial management and means not much is on offer as we move up
6.17 paid (albeit tiny volume), thinks looking very healthy here
Not ramp/deramp but we are years ahead of another AIM listed Graphite stock based in Greenland.
Started: Pauliewonder, 10 May 2024 11:20
Last post: Pauliewonder, 10 May 2024 15:01
Completely agree Legal. There is no way BRES will be still here when we get to production. Will be bought out well before then. All we need is an off take agreement and then huge re rate.
Loving Mike’s interview with Sponge on Twitter.
Respect to Mike; fantastic CEO
If you missed it:
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmxPMQepLZKN
Thanks for the correction appreciated. Good luck.
Stringer01, perhaps a little academic but we're main market listed, not AIM, sorry for being pedantic.
It's a good analysis but all speculation. I would've agreed ten years ago it wasn't uncommon to see 1000% spikes on AIM now however that's not the case. The only big catalyst I can see is if/when they get project finance over the line. That will follow DFS hopefully not long after. That will give a clear runway to production and from the DFS a clear idea of value. It's a massive resource with excellent grades so the re-rate if/when it happens will be enormous.
Started: USER84, 10 May 2024 13:44
Last post: Olderandwiser, 10 May 2024 14:08
Yikes, 36 Bres posts by lunchtime. Is that a world record?
Good to see a whole host of new names. GLA.
If the is the start of the speculation phase described by the Lassonde curve then a 6x - 10x could happen in short order. I’ve experienced this in practice with many mineral stocks. Have not quite profited from it as much as I should have.
Kerrching 30% up.
Started: PaulFG, 9 May 2024 23:22
Last post: SloppyG, 10 May 2024 12:25
It certainly was an excellent interview...... articulate, clarity, on point etc
One thing stood out for me was the fact that building an SPG plant appears to have moved from a potential "nice to have" opportunity to effectively business essential . Mike even added the SPG as the 4th project "success" factor along with Op cost, capex and purity.
Perhaps a subtle change but it certainly appears that this will undoubtedly be the approach given the margin enhancement.
I have to say the Sponge interview was one of the best I've heard. Not like the usual ones that are simply trying to go for the soundbite/headline. I really understood Mike's vision, the market, the product and his realistic assessment of the pitfalls and upside.
Just flagging this up if anyone hasn't seen it today - https://www.lse.co.uk/media/BRES/blencowe-resources-aspiring-to-become-one-of-the-largest-graphite-producers-in-the-world-8r99y3e7ghoujp0.html
JCEP and Spank - completely agree; great management is the absolute Number 1 must have in the nanocap market, especially in mining. And we’ve got it here
JCEP - Agreed, an all round good egg IMO, CEOs like him seem to be as rare as hens teeth.
Started: maverick2471, 10 May 2024 09:01
Last post: maverick2471, 10 May 2024 09:01
Started: Grenade, 10 May 2024 08:56
Last post: CleverThoughts, 10 May 2024 09:00
You're welcome.....
Thanks to the guy who asked the question on the sponge call yesterday regarding the prospectus and investor, seems to be all ok. I listened to the call this morning, really positive update and news flow to come. Quite interesting that Mike is going to be meeting with the Uganda president in the next few weeks.
Started: BillB, 10 May 2024 08:20
Last post: BillB, 10 May 2024 08:20
You were right Spank! Sorted now, thanks.
Started: BillB, 10 May 2024 07:56
Last post: Spank.theMonkey, 10 May 2024 08:04
BillB - perhaps you need to 'follow' TheMoneySponge first then click on the link, perhaps try that - https://twitter.com/TheMoneySponge
No, just comes up 'Details not available'. Thanks for trying though Spank.
Started: BillB, 10 May 2024 07:45
Last post: BillB, 10 May 2024 07:45
I can't open it either! Tried searching the internet, but no luck. Anybody got a working link please?
Started: BillB, 9 May 2024 12:45
Last post: Legalwolf, 9 May 2024 16:35
Could this break into the 6s tomorrow and signal the beginning of new highs? Certainly the newsflow expected from hereon is all going to be positive.
Anybody want the last 12000 at 5.8? Leg up imminent.
Started: Bline59, 9 May 2024 13:01
Last post: Bline59, 9 May 2024 13:01
This really is under the radar of the masses.
If it is difficult to Buy with no official news, and only 17 trades.......imagine what the SP will do when massive news arrives, and there are literally hundreds trying to get on board!
Started: kittykins, 9 May 2024 09:39
Last post: CleverThoughts, 9 May 2024 12:04
Pilot plant to be built processing 5k per annum in 2025. Estimate 6 months EPC,
Mike is due to meet the president of Uganda over the coming weeks.
Non-binding offtakes for large flakes within 1-4 months.
Is it finally time for Bres to parade and flex its muscle? It's been in the gym long enough now.
4 buys totalling circa 12k...
Was hard to buy unless you bought in multiple smaller chunks....
Well done @Clever, I have yet to bite the bullet on the top-up. So we should expect a delayed buy of 220k probably at the end of the day?
Started: BillB, 9 May 2024 11:39
Last post: BillB, 9 May 2024 11:39
120000 shares left at 5.8 before next leg up. Looking really good here now for a sustained rise. ATB
Started: Metalhead25, 7 May 2024 09:46
Last post: Spank.theMonkey, 9 May 2024 09:30
As already stated in plain English Grenade, it's with the regulator, nothing BRES can do about it, delay is not their fault.
It’s a prospectus, it’s been 3 months, a prospective investor can’t invest because of this. It’s a very basic common document to provide.
What do you mean “can’t even”? This company has been a model of progress and delivery. And you pick on the one thing that is delayed, which, by the way, is in the hands of the regulator, not the company
Fair start to the day.
I would like to know when the prospectus is coming. If they can’t even get that done.
Started: Pauliewonder, 9 May 2024 09:29
Last post: Pauliewonder, 9 May 2024 09:29
Https://x.com/blencoweres/status/1788486110273732754?s=46&t=EvXh7V_bl0KSecPP7wKHJg
#BRES 📸Pictures taken at the pilot plant facility near Yanji, Northern China
Northern 🇨🇳 is the source for the majority of the Chinese #Graphite
🔹Pictures show processed graphite from the 600t Bulk sample, dried, bagged & ready for screening into the different flake sizes
Started: Grenade, 7 May 2024 20:08
Last post: Grenade, 7 May 2024 20:08
Still waiting on this Prospectus and 5p investor since February when it was announced. Mike is having a chat on Thursday, what’s the point going over old news, why have we had no communication on this, what is the holdup? Last we heard it was with the lawyers said by a paid for market shill.
Started: harakiri, 3 May 2024 10:31
Last post: Legalwolf, 3 May 2024 16:58
Never mind that - all are welcome 😆
Are you sure you have the correct company?
Hello all, got in today. Thoughts to say hi. Hoping to see further drilling sooner than later.