Member Info for wyndrum

I wonder if we have changed boats or at least the destination.

I hope Ophidian is correct but I don't see the EU area as particularly fruitful for mass AVCT orders. It already seems a developed and crowded market place and I think (if we use the AZ vaccine EU response as a barometer), again not a particularly pro-UK atmosphere to try to sell into. Plus I am not sure how much good(mass) testing is when the policy is to live with it

The UK is a busted flush. The US? Maybe, but Imagine its pretty much like the EU, crowded market place and will probably lean toward a US product?

But what about Australia?
Its relatively small £25m pop), we have very good relations with them, just done a trade deal and they want covid eliminated, which testing would definitely be a necessity to achieve that goal. That to me looks the best bet (and you can lump in New Zealand as well.)

Thanks

Morning Ophidian,

Any update on the Euro order you hinted at ? is it still coming or has it been delayed?

Cheers

Keith, I understand the sentiment, but by God, if that happened and the SP fell by 10-15% on no official news, you might get a really good buy in price!

fwiw in my exp. etc etc etc NEVER, EVER WISH FOR A LOWER SP!

(You have had all the time in the world to buy in lower than where we are today, surely?)

Right back 'atcha ST !

Josh, I am sorry if it comes across has pig headed from any proponent, speaking for myself, I just enjoy the to and fro of different opinions and seeing the merit in the arguments put forward.

Mr ST, "Surely, on the eve of news only a mad TA discipline would still hold the stock."

Why? A true "disciple" of TA won't know about the stock. But that's a bit too hardcore for me in practise. In theory I can and am happy to, take a view on any stock without knowing a thing about it other than just the chart. but I think I would want to know a bit more if I put my money on the table! (see, i am just a pussy after all!)

Back to HE1, every entry point I have made other than the first where I just wanted to get on a board asap, has been reliant on pull backs and break outs, So far no fall has triggered any stop loss for me. So there is actually no reason in the world to sell right now if TA is being used other than an individual's own system of banking profit which is a very, very individual thing, but chart-wise, no, its still looking very good. (You see, TA doesn't know about the chance of drill success or not, its just a chart that goes up or down but right now is on the verge of another break out to the upside.

I would expect having stalled around 28p when/if it closes above there it will continue upwards.

I just think its fun that you and I (and others), can be so diametrically opposed on the best way forward and still come to the same conclusion.

Its quantum and gravity really, just finding the relationship that unites both outcomes, if there is one.

Except Mr ST, I would posit that all that FA info you cited as examples is already in the SP.

There is no point buying the stock after the SP has trebled after reading about the "discovery". The whole point is to get in first.
And FA can't do that. By definition you are (and I am not looking to play semantics with the word), gambling that your "research" which amounts to drilling in an area already known to be awash with helium, will in fact pay off and the final dot or two will be joined.

You use FA, great. I see all the FA already in the SP. So I don't ignore FA. I just don't waste my time on it when I could just look at a chart and get up to speed in a few minutes.

Its not complicated system that I use as I have repeatedly said. I keep it super simple and it helps time my entry and exit points. Which given we want to buy low and sell high, works for me.

So Its not a disparaging of FA, just that it is backward looking and you will never know if you have all the relevant info when you hit the buy/sell button. So of the two systems that try to shorten the odds of the PI getting it right I use SP. You use the Company credential approach.

Both have their merits and the individual will find the one that suits them the best for turning expectation into reality.

ATB

ND "But me giving that alternative equal weight to the more obvious view, that he’s optimistic because the numbers give him cause to be, just serves to misdirect and put people away - knowingly or not."

One, who said you had to give it equal weight. You as an individual will come to your own conclusion, just as will others.
And two, I have to say it gets tiresome in the extreme that when an alternative view that is not "positive" gets labeled with an ulterior motive of always making people sell when they should not.

It seems the weakest of arguments to me, to site a mythical bunch of people who, co-incidently, have to have read the BB and are influenced by a stranger, and at the same time the "accuser" has zero proof that such a group exist, or have ever reacted in that way.

If FA, (as that is what we have been discussing as a method of stock picking,) was so good, then there would hardly be any losses for the PI ever? And yet....? So clearly its no where near fool proof

So why is that? Could there be more to it then just doing research or is it just not enough research? And when you (as a for instance) do all your DD and fundamental research to the nth degree... It does not mean you have got all the facts that are out there. so you may be basing your decision on FA that you have extensively done but still did not happen to unearth a key part.

When you said
"Yes, we are working with imperfect knowledge. Obviously. But research informs your opinions and decisions. Otherwise you are psing in the wind and putting your finger in the air or worse."

I could not agree more. Truly. Your researched informed opinion and decision making, may be based, as you admit on imperfect info. So what good is that? Is it the best we have? ok, that's fair, but its hardly worth taking that system to the bank, is it. Or maybe you think it is?

I can't believe I'm the only one who thinks stock picking is a crap shoot whatever method you use? Am i?

Noob,

Yes I do see things differently! ha ha

ND makes a fair point: "hard yards" of research. People like a reward for endeavour. We put greater weight on an outcome that was derived by the effort put in.

But (for the small PI), in stock picking, its a myth.
There are simply too many unknowns, slow delivery of key info and interested parties where full disclosure is not in their interest.

take HE1 (as an example), the earlier the individual bought in the riskier the outcome was. It has no bearing on the outcome even if the individual has a history of drilling and mining experience. Even if the stock picker has been successful in other mining stocks, none of that will affect the outcome of this drill, in this part of the world, for this element.

So what good does the "research" actually do? I get that you can identify helium as a rare resource and that any major find will boost the company's SP and thats fine, but that didn't take longer to figure out. The rest is.... what exactly?

The SP never, ever reflects the value of a company. Its just an amalgam of hope and expectation. But given we buy stocks at one price and hopefully sell when it is higher, then the SP is the only figure that matters, ever.

I am not always right (I can make 2+2 =5 with the best of them :0)) but if the SP reacts in a contrary way to what I was expecting then I do "invent" or think about scenarios that would make more sense to what has actually happened. I have found that mind set very helpful over the years.

In my experience the SP does not lie.

If people here have not yet realised how their buy/sell decisions are emotionally driven and not rationally done (as we like to think of ourselves) then I think they will lose more often than they win (even in a bull market, maybe more so in a bull market). SP-moving buy/sells typically come from much bigger companies than us lot and they tend to be a lot less emotional in their reasoning and expectation.

Your analogy of the umbrella company: The SP will swing wildly in your scenario, because no PI has access to long range weather forecasting software. The big brokerage house do and so they can make a less emotional decision based on what's most likely. So if we had several weeks of dry weather and then the SP started to rise quite a bit I would "guess" that rain was on the way, even though i am staring out at another cloudless day.

So maybe I do come at this from a different view point than most on BB's

BB's I think are (mostly) enjoyable places to swap ideas and thoughts whilst killing time for the outcome that the BB represents (in this case HE1).

It has no effect one way or the other on the actual SP or company. But can be a place for us all to show off (me included obviously) with our great "knowledge and expertise!! (The key i think, is not to take any of it too seriously I guess :0)

Anyway, roll on HE1 with its discovery!!

Morning Noob,

Yes "Attaching human characteristics!" good point. I use the term "market" as short hand for the majority view. It is people who buy and sell shares and its those actions which moves the SP. (which is why you get sentiment, over bought/over sold, over reaction etc etc.
The big buys and sells (just in my experience), that tend to move the SP tend to be less emotional than the PI sector. As I said earlier in a post that ST picked up on (although it was not actually referring to TA that he assumed), is that (again in my experience) the SP doesn't lie and the picture it paints tend to be pretty reliable.

So when we got that "positive" statement that some here latched on to, it was instructive to me that the SP did not move.
But each to his own. Every day is a school day for me.

Good questions Xerxes. I don't read much into the cloak and dagger stuff of when and exactly what was meant.

BB's tend to fixate on the minutae of detail and get things out of proportion, however (whilst I fall into the very trap I outline above), I believe it is clear, obvious and part of his job that DM releases info on his terms. We still don't know when the drill broke for instance, just as we don't know exact dates for when he gives the interview.

This allows him to manage the news cycle to release what info he wants, when he wants. So we need to remember that. We are being "played" to a degree, so best that none of us over-react to what he says one way or the other.

I think we will get some sort of update Monday or Tuesday via THE RNS or more likely another "holding "tweet/interview as that now seems the way DM goes to reassure the Market as the drill progresses more slowly than originally expected.

Ultimately HE1, will discover commercial helium or they won't and all out posts will not matter, nor do they influence that outcome, one iota.

All we can do is wait. DM is preparing the ground for that final statement on this drill and it is still looking positive, but the market is waiting for the official RNS and is showing commendable patience (via the SP) while it bides its time.

Morning Liquid, there was a bit of a discussion on this earlier where I perhaps , out on a limb, suggested it was a bit of a no-nothing statement.
We will soon find out but the "evidence" I would use, is 2 fold: One, if he knows there is commercial helium there surely it's an RNS, and even if we ignore that, then what happened to the SP? It didn't move when that statement was released. which suggests the market really wants something a bit more official.

Or maybe 28p is what that discovery is worth? (I hope not!!!!)

ATB

warren who? never heard of him..? is it this one? https://grow.acorns.com/warren-buffetts-biggest-money-mistakes-what-investors-can-learn/
Or are we talking about Jimmy's lesser known brother?

ST, What can I tell you, they never spoke to me in their surveys,

So to conclude: I don't care....but thanks anyway for telling me I am doing it wrong

The difference might be better put that I don't care about the company per se: its not the same thing as the SP: The 2 are not that well related.
None of my money invested here or with AVCT went to either company. I can make direct donations to either or both If I want them to have the money.

That's why I like the SP, it doesn't lie, sure, it can need a bit of interpretation and can be subject to a bit of MM, but by and large if you look at it long enough (any stock) it starts to paint a picture of the reality of what actually the majority think.

Its not full proof, but then what is?

Its not painful (now) actually when I lose. I don't like it (at all) because I have not solved the puzzle but the actual loss does not affect my lifestyle and as a result it helps me keep it objective.

Its just a personal thing to me. We all have our different methods and I know I bang on about it (a lot!) but emotions play a huge part, in fact I would go as far to say that for many, many PI's, an overwhelming part, in decision making in this game.

My experience was that it did not help me achieve the returns I wanted. But as always, each to his own.

ITV, that's kind of you to say I'm held in "high esteem" but lets not put it to a vote, eh?! :0)

I have absolutely nothing against DM and what I see of him in interviews he seems admirably competent and looks very good as a communicator.

My (general) point is: All CEO's of companies will always accentuate the positive and ignore the negative. that's all. My experience is to largely discount what they say. RNS's are much harder to wriggle away from so that's the ones I think PI's should scrutinise as and when they are released.

I'm not sure any of us are "informed" in maybe the way you imply. This is a one off. Previous drills for different products from different companies in different geological conditions with differing access to resources cannot be transferred over to HE1 that who can choose to update the market at its own pace.

None of the above shakes my belief currently in the outcome. I just don't as you can tell, put much weight on the day to day tweets of vague statements that imply something without giving any actual info.

We see it different ST.

You seem to get emotionally involved with the company and its personnel and I don't

Who said it the drill would take "circa about 1 month"? Were there any caveats with that statement?
When the drill broke how long did it take before DM let the market know? a day, a week, a fortnight?
He informed the market on his terms, on his timeline.

I don't know DM in the way that you seem to but he chooses his words very carefully. We don't know when this latest interview took place. So we don't know if drilling is still continuing or not and if it is how much longer it will take. We don't know how long the testing will take either.

I don't have a problem with that, but DM could have talked about that imo, a with a little more exactitude whilst still allowing some caveats for very specific timings. But it was vague, and his statement " positioning for the next step.." was an absolute nothing sentence but look how it got some excited...

(Also I don't get judgemental on a company, its SP's or its CEO, whether I make money in it or not.)

But as I say we see this game from very different perspectives whilst wanting the same outcomes. Which only confirms in my experience, that there is always more than one solution to any problem.

Roley, always assume CEO's are talking BS. Xerxes is right. If they have not done the test then how can he know the results. If he knows the results is RNS time. Re-read it and you see it has said nothing. He is not saying he is talking to anyone, but is giving the impression that he is. HE1 is" positioning itself" for the next step of starting talks with someone.

I've put my coat on to go outdoors. (Have I gone outdoors yet? will I change my mind and take my coat off and stay in?)

I am not concerned that anything is wrong, far from it, but it is taking an eternity to do this drill and all I get from the latest tweets etc is a reassuring nod to the markets saying its all ok, just still going to take a while, don't worry.

That's why imo the SP has stalled. Until there is actual news It would seem the appetite to buy the stock is currently sated.

Just my opinion of course.

It wasn't meant to be stupid, just I thought that was the deal so I was just wondering but hey, whatever.

if the symbol identifies Mologic, do we assume that they are not as yet selling/giving away the AVCT test to poor and middle income countries yet?