Member Info for wyndrum

Nd, "So now the misdirection has turned into a debate about bullying"

I don't think so, it was just one aspects Of Myles's post that was picked up on.

I don't think anyone here remotely thinks his option of the AVCT test being "immensely" in demand is likely as there is no proof at all that that is the case (an RNS would have come out to say that and the SP would not be languishing where it is).

Now he is looking at least 6 months ahead after a year has gone by already, so its going to be 18 months now since the re-rate is due. (And I am pretty sure the dosing time table has slipped a little as they are only getting candidates signed up now, so what, at least September before it starts? (I don't count that as mid year re: previous RNS's.)

His expectation of earlier updates as to how its going might turn out to be true, but the official stance is 2023 for results and given the missed time lines to date makes me, at this stage sceptical on hearing any news sooner rather than later.

But I do think he is right that if all goes well than AVCT will rocket.

Trek, just using me as an example: here from time to time I have been accused (multiple times) of being a liar, thief, con-man, child sex offender, and a murderer, as well as the common or garden very abusive swear words to describe my character by strangers who have never met me but simply took exception to my views on an investment BB. (And those descriptions were very unpleasantly worded if the sentiment wasn't enough.)

I would imagine that if the staff were picking up emails and phone calls multiple times on a daily basis of that type and probably worse, it might colour AS's view a bit?

(I am not defending his missed timelines and any criticism he gets because of that, but it does not nor should ever have to be, rude or offensive.)

My understanding Morris is that these "Angry" Pi's have been pretty abusive. And if this BB, is anything to go by then I can only imagine what sort of messages may have been left for staff to read. (That's why (imo) its very hard to actually contact anyone directly via the AVCT website any more, well, for some time, really. I posted months and months ago that I thought AS really didn't like the PI's (as a group) and could care less about their investment because of the abuse dolled out to his staff.

He might be thick-skinned enough to take it (but why should he?), but his staff?

Ha ha! I supress my emotions while making investment decisions, but al that suppression has to bubble up (see what I did there?) somewhere else
I am not quite the Terminator character you might think I am! :0))

For instance today, I feel a very strong feeling things are going to start to move upwards....

Oh my goodness, have I become become addicted to ramping!!!!!

Nope, I am just particularly chipper today and thought I would share my sunny disposition with the BB :0))

Howzaty, the point of this pandemic is not the number of case's per se, but the effects of the cases. if illness and deaths continue to fall to below even the levels they are now, then the amount who contract it becomes less important right down to meaningless.

Once it became clear that the UK's solution was vaccines (and that the vaccines "worked"), ie we "live "with it, then testing becomes less of a necessity until it is not a requirement at all. (You get the flu jab, you either get ill (enough for hospital) or you don't. You don't test for it asymptomatically and who cares if you get it anyway, if you don't end up burdening the NHS.

It seems clear (to me) that the market has already priced in this collapse of mass testing as a solution now, and expect a lower than previously expected amount of test sales from AVCT, that currently now justifies the SP. Obviously if very large order was to emerge the market would reassess.

Thats why my mind is wandering to Australia and New Zealand as they currently have a Zero Covid policy and you definitely need testing for that. How long that lasts as a policy I am not sure. My guess would be as soon as effective anti virals are readily available and they eventually get round to vaccinating their own populations.

Travel is the hard one to discern? If it stays expensive and a ball ache to arrange and carry out, then demand for overseas holidays will likely fall. it will be interesting then to see how the travel industry reacts.

Roll on AVA600OK

The "Spectator" mag had an interesting article on the current state of covid. and why this wave has been smaller than expected. The conclusion seems to be that Herd immunity has probably arrived and that now, going forward the latest modelling the author has done (who has actually a very good track record), that it is unlikely now that any wave will be greater than this one and that it is even more unlikely going forward, that the NHS will ever have more than 5% of beds being used for covid illness.

(The one bit that the stats people don't test for is for antibodies in children, and this modeller is concluding a lot more children have already had the disease than realised and therefore are not getting infected again, and there fore not passing it on this time around.)

Certainly Neil Ferguson's, 100,000 minimum cases a week rising to possibly 200k per week prediction of only a couple of weeks or so ago, seems incredibly wide of the mark.

On the other hand MR ST, the less they have the more the price will have to rise to satisfy demand so hopefully not many are giving in now....

(ohh.. was that ramping again...)

well, they have to do something to try and get some shares when the deluge of buys come in!!!

(ooh...ramping...its quite nice....I like it!) :0))

I'm not sure there are any tweets left Kevin. The last one was drill nearing completion (which I guess is already done now), followed by testing, which therefore would be underway. The next tweet would be the results, prelim or not, of the tests. which is RNS territory.

I would imagine, one way or another, we are almost there.

I'm thinking of the staff Ray. once you get to passengers the numbers are huge and as has been pointed out you have different regs in different countries to complicate matters.

Good point Chips, I don't think Europe has got the internet, so we have plenty of time.....

recently seen on the AVCT board today. H gets some abuse. it can be quite the experience posting there...

ST, have you been on the sauce again?

Well, taking AS at his word, supply is the problem. Maybe we have all assumed too much? Maybe supply is the problem and we can't supply millions and millions of tests and AVCT are having to set their sights lower?

For instance X Airport/Govt wants X million per week and AVCT can't do it?

I know AS talks about many millions per month in the future but seemed to have an immediate celling of 5m, just over 1m per week and if you were testing every day, that's only what, 150k?

As a result we should not so much lower our expectations of a world dominating test (Personally I am already there), as understand we either potentially supply a small national outbreak or small international company that we can actually maintain a regular shipment for?

I think we should just lower our sights, at least for the short term.

(It still doesn't answer of course why no such deal has been inked yet....)

Marik, Tim, you know BA is a Spanish company, right?

What brings you here ST? I thought you were out?

I reckon its more likely Qantas… makes more sense to me.

Ha Ha ST! (I agree with Trek that the chart looks good and I think there is a Brucie Bonus of a T/O in for free!)

I have to be very careful what I say here because apparently every novice share holder hangs on my every word, and whatever I say will probably make them sell even when I buy! ha ha You couldn't make it up!!

So I have to express feelings and hunches in case I am accused of deliberately talking the SP down just so I can buy in lower down and steal their shares off them.

The fact the SP popped a penny down as soon as I bought might make you think I actually don't influence the SP... But then some here would have to admit to being wrong... and that is one thing I know will.... never....ever.... happen :0))

I agree Trek and it is strating to look cheap now.

(I still have a sneaking hunch/feeling that a T/O is brewing. It just feels too quiet from AVCT with lack of news on sales as well as no comment on the large fall in the SP and throw in all the M&A activity in the mix.... I don't know...but I , like you bought some today.... Who knows...)