RE: AVCT cashflow breakeven15 Aug 2021 13:56
Mowzer, I am sorry you took my comments the way you did but I thought I explained my reasoning.
I know its not a majority view, but I think the SP (not from a TA pov), is often instructive as I believe SP moving news tends to be leaked to bigger players than us PI's
So the fall from its highs was (i think, just my opinion, my view), the market knowing that the test income (at least in the short term) was not able or going to support the SP. (Plus you can throw into the mix a short from a player with an admittedly mixed record on success but so far has proved a profitable move (and have now added to that short)and a large holder (Conifer wasn't it?) selling off as well.)
The fall then was so steep and quick that it made me think that if the income was not coming through, what implication could that have? Hence the possibility of a fund raise. (AS remember, said he would not do one just before he did, so unfortunately I discount what the BoD say, simply based on what has gone before).
The next bit is that you don't wait until you have run out of cash to do one, so although there should be plenty of cash in the bank now, I don't know when it gets to a stage when you decide more funds are needed? I think cash burn is higher now than it was previously in the figures, but again its just my view.
Finally you have to judge the market, so the last cash raise took advantage of a high SP based on an assumption that the covid opportunity would be hugely beneficial to the company and they managed to raise more than they expected at that time.
That was my reasoning behind the original post, with the important and I though reasonable proviso that it was only something of a (potential) issue if no material income came in before the end of the year,
As a result the higher the SP the less dilution would be necessary should a cash raise be deemed appropriate. I can see a scenario , should it be necessary, coinciding with good initial data from AVA6000K at the end of the year or early next.
But yes of course I could be wrong., it was/is just my interpretation at the time of the collapse in the SP.
I will be delighted for events to prove me wrong, but I need to see income first before I happily accept I misjudged the reasons behind the fall.
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