Member Info for wyndrum

Thanks Phantom, well depending at what level the shorts were taken out its either already financially painful or they need to close it out and bank what profit they can, I think. (If they have not already done so.)

Thanks Phantom. If you don't mind me asking: I have no access to SpreadEX so when you quote 11% what is that 11% of? Do you know? (I am trying o get some idea of the amount of stock that has been offered to short)
TIA

PR: I won't change the subject but you did. didn't, you with a personal diatribe on me.. you love that. complaining how threads get "taken over" and yet its the people like you who complain about it, who instigate it.

Stevie, (hopefully) the SP has found a floor and without some meaningful income generating news its unlikely the SP will go up. There was an in depth synopsis of where Avvacta are form MM and in the past these have propelled the SP upwards, but no this time: the market is very wary now imo. Further there was a interview with AS & NB yesterday which really said nothing new (for the market to digest), and if anything reminded investors that the timescales run into years on these sorts of technologies and trials.

So each morning there is a quick look for an RNS and if it is absent or of no financial help to the company the SP it drifts around a few p during the day.

Maruik, this what i said only yesterday at 11:52
"Since the dramatic fall there has been a narrow trading range of 11.3p - 12.5p. So it will depend where it closes to day to make any future guestimates on what is most likely to happen next. Assuming it closes above 12.5p then there will start to be signals that a reversal is underway. On this daily chart it looks to be 18.16p followed by our old friend 21,5p as the 2 next targets if the reversal is proven."

Ok ? Happy now?

Marik, I have just read your post: What shorts? I can't see any that have been registered?

How do you know buying is building or will be building? and even if you are right are you inferring that will push the SP up? Because if you are welcome to the world of TA.

(I find that with a lot of LTH, they can get quite obsessed with the short term movements of the SP and look to the chart for emotional support hoping that their "long term" goals might be achieved.)

(PS Should have bought in when DBD and I were discussing it a couple of days ago.)
Anyway, sounded a bit rampy to me.

Marik, you keep asking for my opinion on the price: I give it frequently, just go back in my posting history. Its all there.
I have defined for you several times what i am trying to achieve using TA on small caps. I have explained that (as you well know), TA has periods of time in the chart where it is just "noise"ie within a trading range (which I believe HE1 to be in now).

Just so I understand Marik, No one can see the future , though I (and others) try, through trying to understand crowds ,what is most likely which you disagree with, but want you guesses from LTH (whatever that means, and by all means define that) on what the SP will be on some undisclosed date in the future on some unspecifies definition of "success".

Wow.....maybe its you who should go and buy a crystal ball....... ;0)

Funnily enough i still don't which one it is from your answer ha ha

Marik "Every forecast, every RNS, ever rumour, every tipsheet commentator, its all already in the SP."

you have used that quote from me before so it clearly has irritated you but I'm not sure why? Is it because its stating the obvious, or is it that you don't think its valid?

DBD, its tricky now as to when to top up. Using the weekly chart there is a case that the SP could retrace to 13p in which case that would be an obvious place to buy, however given the strong move today puts that target in doubt (imo), 14.4p to 14.5p has been the recent low of today so if it falls to there then some might decide thats as good as its going to get before it resumes upwards.

TA does not give necessarily clear signals to buy at any given time of the day. its a much more patient game then that and on stocks like these it can take many hours and sometimes days before the "ducks line up in row".

I am toying with one last top up but will wait as i am not that anxious given my current holding just to jump in. (I got that out of my system very early this morning at sub 14p). But at the same time I am not particularly expecting it to fall either from here.

There are always good opportunities around here and elsewhere without having to "force" it.

On the other hand if you think its going to go 25p plus what diff will buying now at 14.7p be as opposed to 13.5p? Each to his own as always.
Just never bet what you can't afford to lose.

I told you Marik, I can't "see" anything coming in the future. I simply bet on what I think is most likely. Just an odds game.

The fact that I keep it simple or in your words basic, (which is fine), is fairly immaterial i think, don't you?

Would you prefer It if I was all Elliott Waves and fast and slow stochastics overlaid with volume and 20/50 & 200 day moving averages using the Fibonacci to confirm trends whilst keeping an eye on the support and resistance lines and of course the RSI? Would that be better?

You have to keep it basic (imo) because the (large) spread and lack of volatility in these small caps makes trading them over the short term, generally beyond my accepted risk profile.

Anyway. Good luck.

Hi D: Using HL yesterdays close (either 1 year chart or 3 month) SP closed 11.50p, RSI 23.57
Today right now: 1 week chart 15min interval 15p (SP) RSI 70.24

Hi Wolfie, I Posted this on the 13th June as a friend of mine asked my opinion re: RMS

"....its pretty straightforward: 3 goes to break 3.05p and the 4th attempt only made it to 2.90p . (This is where money management comes in. sell when it fails to go through a resistance and then tries but doesn't even get there, but if you are wrong you buy back in at 3.1p ). Anyway, that's when the warnings were to sell. And absolute confirmation when 2.18p was broken and it fell away sharply. 2 further spikes to reverse decline topping out at 2.2p to recover and still failed.

Right now Its still in decline and still with room in the RSI for more falls. Given it looks pretty unloved I would expect it to revisit .058p (it might test 075/078 but its been so brutal and un remitting I would think its going to have to go back to what was a the last significant resistance. If that goes then 038p or thereabouts. (i know nothing about the company)."

Marik, I can't see the future, I don't try to and I don't profess to, I don't why you put words in my mouth?

I did say what i thought was most likely to happen (SP wise) and where I would sell if I was wrong.

Tuesday: "DBD, you said to let you know. just bought quite a few at 11.12p," ( I had bought previously a bit higher also some at 11p and indeed more yesterday.). I am now back to my pre drop holding but all my purchases have been lees than my sell prices, so currently I seem to be doing ok (again)

(and if you are that bothered you can see I bought AVCT at 103p earlier this week and also Boo at 271p as I posted on the relevant boards.)

And I did actually say, yesterday lunchtime in listing 4 options: "Either we are getting a bigger drill and staying (relatively) put." and "I think the "delay" in the news, is nothing to do with mulling anything over, I am as sure as I can be without knowing, that the decision has been made. I think the "delay" is simply so that when the next step is announced it will come with "we are already on our way..." with implementing whatever that next step is as it will sound much more positive to be able to report progress already at the same time showing that HE1 is being proactive and moving forward, even as he speaks."

So my guesswork there was not too wide of the mark either.

DBD, ah.. and the RSI intraday is saying 76.75, so very close to overbought as well.

2 and nearly 3 indicators saying the odds are on a falling SP.

DBD, Using HL (and daily close figures/chart) I see the RSI at close yesterday of 23.58 (SP 11.5p )with the low the day before of 22.73 (SP 11.3p),
Since the dramatic fall there has been a narrow trading range of 11.3p - 12.5p. So it will depend where it closes to day to make any future guestimates on what is most likely to happen next. Assuming it closes above 12.5p then there will start to be signals that a reversal is underway. On this daily chart it looks to be 18.16p followed by our old friend 21,5p as the 2 next targets if the reversal is proven.
Over the years I am familiar with all the popular indicators but even though Marik, seemed concerned by my simplistic approach, I have found a system that although alarmingly straightforward, works for me and the way i interpret events in a very profitable way. It does not include MACD, although many swear by it, so if it works for you then that's great and stick with it.

I' will "know more" by 5:30pm this evening. ATB

I understand your sentiment ITV, but its not a cult for me, its just a betting slip that may, or may not, come good with the added bonus I can cash out at any time. (As can we all)

At some stage you will sell, and the day you do somebody will buy on the basis they think the SP is going to go higher still. You may be called all sorts of names for being so short sighted to sell, but they won't know all the background will they? and even if they did, what difference would it make?

The thing to bear in mind thats key (imo) on using TA, is to understand what you are trying to achieve. Ie is it to be day trading and trying to get a few small % points, or do you have longer timescales maybe days weeks (or even months. )

Because depending on your expected timescale of holding the stock should dictate what time interval you use to see what chart pattern emerges.

Yesterday is a good example. I had a stop loss at around 10.6/10.7p. A lot of the day the SP was below that but i work on end of day close prices so I sat on my hands and had to wait to see how the day would finish before making a decision. As it turned out the SP closed above my stop, so I did not have to consider selling this morning. (dare I say, a less experienced or perhaps less disciplined person, would have sold out at those stops intra day trying to protect capital.)

I might use intra day (like today) simply if I want to add to my holding and use that shorter time interval chart to try and not pay top dollar.

So, have a plan and stick to it. (The caveat though is that plan should have a track record of success, whether through real trades or dummy paper trades.) The reason why so many traders fail is that they either don't have a reliable system and or
they don't have the right psychological or emotional mind set to be patient and take the perverse nature of SP movements in their stride, rather than screaming at the screen at the" bastard MM manipulators"!!! :0))

Dai, that just suggests the SP is falling and the MM's have too many sell orders in that they need to execute first I think, before taking on new orders.