Member Info for wyndrum

I would not argue about fear and greed being the main drivers for PI's but I am specifically talking about buy ands sell ratios in LSE.

If a SP starts going up for no "apparent" reason then that can suck people in (and likewise down), but that is a move in the SP, which again I was not referring to.

For a SP to halve its not on fear (imo) in this case its about funding. Is there going to be a cash raise or an increased credit facility? At the moment the market is expecting a cash raise. If it turns out not to be the case and a clear(er) path to profitability is shown then the SP will rally.
(Just my opinion, DYOR etc)

Xenor, maybe, but I am always a bit wary of the "I don't do it " but others do/might" when there is no evidence that that is the case.

But as I say it makes no difference to the SP so really... who cares?

so if you see more sells then buys, do you then sell?

I do thinks its related Morris.

In a news vacuum, then all investors have to go on is historical precedent.

Its only 15 months ago since the LFT was pulled, (it seems longer!) and then at the time we were promised an update on a new improved LFT. Due to no update, it starts to cause an issue of trust, as now AS's word is not to be relied upon.
(AS could have said a little later, that the time, effort and money to improve this test due to the changing covid environment now makes this uneconomic, so we will not pursue it this time.)

So silence from AVCT usually goes hand in hand with delay. And delays cost money.

Generally I don't think anybody cares in as much as a positive RNS will cause funds to be allocated (and re-allocated) into AVCT but in the meantime it increases the risk, and as I never tire of saying, as risk increases most investors trim their holdings accordingly.

The SP reflects the delay/uncertainty of the extension of the trial and the subsequent funding to finish the trial.

I am sure we will get an update in April but until then the SP will wander around. Personally I am hoping it is now bouncing around the bottom. but as always, we shall see.

Hmm: "My purchase this morning showed up as a sell. I wish the trade page was more accurate."

Why does it matter? Do you base your buy or sells by referring to a system you know is not particularly reflective on the actual transaction, and further, every buy has a sale so its pretty irrelevant anyway, isn't it?

Tight Trading Range currently, but the SP move has given some evidence the down turn is over.

A close above 6.85p would start to get the juices flowing but then there are numerous "highs" of a range between 7p and broadly 7.5p which is pretty close to where we are so its feasible it could go quite quickly.

As news is not divorced from the SP that will (obviously) be the main driver I think for a more substantial move, but we might get some indications prior to any release.

Hopefully its starting to get interesting again. (dyor etc etc)

Its in anew trading range now, so on the plus side a close above 14.75p could be the start of a positive change.

It needs to stay and close above 12.75p otherwise more falls likely than not. (dyor etc etc)

23/03 SP 114p
" 108-111p is a support area and it looks like its going to test it."
and later that day
SP 111p "bounced off 110p. worth a flutter i think but its just my opinion, I am not telling anyone what to do....."

having trouble figuring that one out Tim?... never mind, stick to insults and replying to Hurst's post.

sure bitl, (not that you can read this), because at the time I mentioned published research that suggested masks were not effective and was accused here of wishing people dead.

Still its a really great BB for research just so long as it ties in with what the majority wish to hear....

Yeah its a hobby horse with me, but having had literally years of abuse from many here only for them to come to exactly the same conclusions, makes no difference to me, but should for others at least remind them that no-one has any idea what is going behind the scenes.

Brilliant, absolutely brilliant for balanced discussion!

2 posters who have binned me and therefore not read my post say its rubbish when in fact its not.

And lets gloss over the fact that having binned me because they do not want want to discuss my posts yet discuss my post without knowledge of it! Can someone explain to me what goes through their biased heads when doing that if not ramping?

Lets talk about "our" view and dismiss any other without knowing what it is?

Trouble is many who claim to have binned me have not, which is why they keep responding but deceitfully don't actually have to talk about content, which is a very useful ploy so they can pretend and hide behind the potential flaws in their argument.

And for all the supposed fud I have generated... how much of what i have posted has actually comes to pass rather than all the ramping posts of quick results and NDA's and bids going on that AS can't discuss and every other unsubstantiated claim routinely made to paint black as white?

I am also thinking of more buys than sells, shorts being closed, market manipulation (daily of course running into years now), New York on the bid, tiny Pharma co's being bought out every day, many strings to bows (that so far after 17 years haven't produced any viable commercial income), nasdaq listing imminent (that was meant to be in SD i think?)

But the good news this is one of the best, well researched BB on the lse.....

Really everyone, you just need to accept we have no clue at any given time what is going on and what timelines will ultimately prove correct.

Like I have always said, all we can do is chat while it happens, to kill the time, just don't kid yourselves you think you know anything.

I understand that assumptions have to be made in these instances as what else can be done. But the assumptions have to be grounded and to assume that it will be the quickest route of any cohort that will then happen twice in a row (65 days) does not seem balanced.

Another less contentious calculation might be to add the total days of cohort trials and divide them by the amount of cohorts to get an average?

That then become 125 days per cohort trial or double Rah's best case estimate. (Particularly when this type of trial is always difficult to run to time, and AVCT have never beaten a deadline yet.)

(And I am not sure about this when RAH says "Under the old plans, we would not have seen a dox Vs 6000 comparison by end 2024."

When the AVCT RNS in aug 21' states "The dose escalation phase is anticipated to complete by Q2 2022 followed by completion of the dose expansion phase by Q2 2023."

Its a slog and holding out for rapid delivery after all this time when there is no evidence (and plenty to the contrary) that it will accelerate seems to be wishful thinking rather than thoughtful analysis.
Maybe it will happen more quickly but just getting patients available is taking months and we still don't know when it will start. (why mid april?, ok why not, but thats (mid april) is just guesswork).

My point is, there is no justifiable evidence to believe it will be as quick as RAH's estimates suggest.

Sometimes I wonder why we don't get on better bitl.

Its all guesswork when we don't have official statements to work from, but a (fairly unremitting) fall from 185p to 110p suggested there was something actually happening against the, at the time expectation.

DE5 "delay" in starting was always (to me) a very likely candidate based on as you say, the most obvious reason.

Given it was "unexpected, I think the clue was there.

When it does start up I presume there will be also a clarification for the anticipated end of the trial, but as we approach April I see "Mid summer" as being late August, probably September as the soonest dates now. (I certainly don't rule out q4)

As I say no one can know for sure in a news vacuum but the SP normally tells the story in broad terms.

My limited experience in brief email exchanges I have also had with AS does suggest to me this is likely an honest post, and in truth I don't see what is gained by lying.. The SP is already down to levels where it assumes the DE5 hasn't started so I don't see much downward reaction from the market over this, and as it is not purporting to say that DE5 is starting next week, then there is no reason for the SP to spike up either.

Personally from a SP pov, I am hoping the 108p-111p support holds and that we may settle somewhere in the mid to high teens before official news confirms the trial has been re-started.

dryland, apologies. I don't know why but i was reading 29.69 being just the "right" side of 30 when of course it isn't.

And then kept on digging...

Anyway, sorry

are we saying that constant buying over a long period has pushed prices down?

coming from you Watching, that really hurts.....

What with his clever use of words and the english language and always, then, ends up agreeing with what I said either weeks or months previously...

that was yesterday ripley....try and keep up

Ripley you have just said: "The FUDers will now flip and be positive. W4nkers"

Really? 24 hours ago you posted:
" But….. everyone has a limit. And I suspect AS has found his and perhaps it’s time for a more business driven CEO at the helm and AS leading the “science side” of things. A drop from 185 to 110 with zero comms is quite staggering really.
Time to go AS?"

And

"AS does an excellent job with the science. And it isn’t about the SP for him, except that keeping investors informed is literally part of his job.
Can anyone here tell me for certain if the next DE has commenced? And if so what is the dose?
No one here can answer that question. And that is the problem. It’s not a fluffy or pointless RNS, it’s fundamental.
The exclusion of PIs from meetings is laughable in an age of Zoom Calls. Especially since we used to get a look in. Science day was just stupid and it didn’t work.No follow up to science day is also mad. It’s an opportunity missed.
And most recently…. When do we get an RNS stating the 3996 poster preview that we’ve already seen?"

Asking all these questions... hmm... makes you a sea lion I believe? esp as they can't be answered.... W4nkers indeed....

spread has widened again but having a half p as opposed to round numbers is a new one i think?

yes, I can't remember seeing that before...