Member Info for wyndrum

Accept I am not, occasionally I will use sarcasm.

I don't care what the majority here think. I am not a rec hound. I post alternative views when it seems to me group-think is taking over.

The point that is not debated is, by all means ignore me, but why do you think the SP is at 121p? Do you think it has fallen simply because the market is as thick as mince? If not what is your explanation?

Apre if people stopped asking me so many questions or completly mis quoting me more than half the p[osts would disappear.

Rather than me seeing a Dr why don't you answer the question of when you realised the LFT was a bust?

Thats the problem. I get questioned for my motives and then when i ask for some clarity more often than not there is no reply, Joe being an example today. You being another one.

But you get off with being insultingly rude. Thats your problem not mine. Very grown up

Thanks Apre, when did you realise the LFT was a bust?

RNS 11/08/21

"The first patient has received their first dose of AVA6000 at The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust. The Phase I study is being initiated across a small group of leading UK cancer centres with an established reputation for early cancer clinical research in the Phase I setting. The dose escalation phase is anticipated to complete by Q2 2022 followed by completion of the dose expansion phase by Q2 2023."

Cider "Avacta is funded for the period it believes it needs to be funded for. Why would you fund for 4 years when a licensing deal may become apparent within 12-24?"

Because the FACTS at the time were that there was no licensing deal and without that the funding would not last 4 years.

Personally, If I am correct, his strategy makes sense, the downside being you can't trust what he says to be true. Its the lesser of 2 evils.

Its the biggest problem loss making companies have of any stripe. How do stay in business long enough to turn a profit.

One IPO. 1-1 share split and 2 cash raises so far. You do what you have to do.

All I know Cinder is that the "casino" AIM is is not the market but what the CEO's get away with saying that does not happen.

Given the industry is prone to over runs why doesn't AS ever qualify his remarks?

I'll tell you my thinking, because if he said this trial (in full) will take up to 4 years (instead of the 2 he stated originally) the SP would have fallen further because funding would immediately be an issue as 4 years was unsustainable.

So shorter (inaccurate) timescales allows funding to be put on the back burner and then when funding is needed then it really is that much closer to an end date even though its running "late"

You think inking deals, TT missed dates, Bams and Elisa forecast of sales, every single forecast date missed is just a co-incidence and bad luck?

Either he is hopeless at forecasting and should be more accurate in his qualification, or he does deliberately mislead the public community.

Take your pick

Yes Ice thats true, but it does not come out of the blue unless there is hidden info from shareholders.

I am not suggestion nor did I, that AVCt was going bust. It was part of a list of reasons as to why there is to some, a disconnect between the company's tech advances and its SP.

But you tell me.

What are the annual losses over the last 5 years
What is the current cash burn.
How much did the move cost to the White City.
how much funds are left
When is the next milestone payment due
How much will it be
when will the current trial end
when will it be commercialised
When will AVCT be cash generative.

So, the risk i highlighted is not true then? Companies don't go bust and get bought out of administration?

I did not quantify the "risk" because I can't but its a possibility. The likelyhood (or not) is dependent on a variety of factors that I have listed but currently we are unaware of. As these are revealed so that risk will diminish or increase.

Tim, stop saying you filter me if you are going to quote posts I made. So when AS said MTD was "Unexpected" how was that not out of the blue? How come the trial was meant to finish in q4 with the end of DE4 but now is running for at least another 6 months with now DE5 and maybe a 6th?

Its this blindness to potential poor outcomes that made some here hang on to the belief that the LFT was going to be huge success long after it was apparent the opposite was true, costing them money no doubt.

Does experience teach you nothing?

Ice, This absurd, almost juvenile framing of "upbeat" or positive posts to somehow decide the merit of a post is ridiculous.

I am not being negative, either subtly or obviously.

I responded to RAH's posts saying he thought the market is as thick as mince because of the science working and the SP is as low as it is.

I offered alternatives as to why there might be other reasons with an explanation as to my thinking.

You too, if you would be so kind, point out where the "negativity" is? and again what bit of it do you disagree with.

Tim, you have already filtered me (although you always seem very up to date with what I post... ) but why do you think you should tell others what to do? Why is your opinion so important? (Esp when you read through your posting history. Its hardly informed comment is it?)

Seriously, go on Joe, where is it negative?

And what bit did you disagree with? (You ask me questions which i reply to, so it is fair I think for me to ask you to do the same?)

Cheers

Sorry Joe If I mis read it, but its difficult to know when people are being tongue in cheek or genuine in what they advise me to do.

Seeing as you accuse me of "....constant relentless negativity."
Show me where I was "negative" please. And also what specifically in my post did you disagree with.

Cheers

Joe, cheerleading won't affect the outcome of AVCT success.(And thats a pretty dumb request to make of any investor.)

If you bother to read my posts I am not remotely "negative." I am simply neutral.

I simply try and explore reasons as to why a stock with this ground breaking tech seems to be currently undervalued given its potential and the the ability of the market to look ahead.

If you read my posts in the light of someone who is unemotionally attached then it might read differently.

I am a share holder. I want them to succeed, but if for some reason they don't I want to try and figure it out first. (Capital preservation).

As far as I can see the science works so that is a huge plus and removes a degree of risk. If they were adequately capitalised to take it to market that would be it. It would just be a time line. Game over.

But the risks that are still present are , when will the trial finish, how does that affect current funding.
Going forward, what is the longer term plan to get it to market and what is the timeline for that, which again, those decisions will affect longer term funding requirements.

What is happening to diagnostics. Are the milestone payments still coming in or has that research finished?

Where are we on any commercial sales of affimers after all these years with various papers saying how good they are over the current system.

I expect (know), that these questions will be resolved and for that list, so far so pretty obvious. (How they will be resolved equally obviously I don't know). But why is comms so poor? why, (given AVCT's recent history), does AS seem to perpetuate the lack of info?

The counter argument could be you can't expect a RNS every 5 minutes, but I am not asking that.

The only consistent is that AS misses every deadline he sets. Every one. That then naturally leads investors to be nervous.

The SP is a barometer of market sentiment. Its about where it was on the cash raise 3 years ago at 120p Yet look where it is in terms of development. If that does not make you ask a few more uncomfortable questions then I don't know what will. (Because I bet you did not expect the SP to be here 3 years ago, so your analysis was wrong too., wasn't it?)

So no, I am not a cheerleader, but then not for any company I have a share certificate for either. Its risk versus reward, but the trick is to minimise risk to max out the reward. My experience has shown not to be fixated on the pot of gold at the end but always, always, focus on the risk. Because you get that right, the reward takes care for itself.

or 25% in 3 months.... keep skewing the narrative as though anyone else cares.....

you 2 poor sad sods.....

I think you should look the word up because clearly you have no idea as to what context to use it.

It seems to me some here are more concerned with being "right" than making money.

lets all buy at 185p rather than 125p for instance.

Lets assume that whatever "set back news" is only the market not understanding and not possibly countenance that there are other problems (LFT for instance).

These are actual FACTS for us to draw on rather than this misty eyed devotion to a company and seemingly to ignore the investment side of it.

Yes, it all could come good and I hope it does, buy surely it makes sense walking through the mine field that is a high risk bio tech on aim, is to tread lightly and very carefully.

You say you understand the risks yet never acknowledge or explore what they might be.

Rah gets criticisim from me because his view is too one dimensional. His view is the market is thick because he assumes the market does not understand AVCT and that its science works.

He does not acknowledge the other potential pitfalls outside of the science that may work against AVCT SP/valuation. IMO the market is not as thick as mince and I think his fall back position to justify his view is lazy analysis. And for me that is a recurrent theme of his.

It reminds me of the early models to show the universe revolved around the earth. The diagrams and orbit explanations were incredibly complex and still didn't work before at some stage someone said... guess what, maybe we aren't the center of the universe after all.

Your obsession to try and score silly points against me personally is so laughable and misdirected as to be on a par with your own analytical skills, (ie worthless).

I am not disagreeing with the science, I believe AVCT will most likely overcome the obstacles that are in front of it. I am simply offering up some ideas as to why with the most ground breaking developments in the side affects and effectiveness of some cancer treatments, the SP is as "low" as it is.

But it is of no surprise to me that your conclusion is the same as RAH's and the reason is just the market is as thick as mince.

Pl, I did not pay more than the market consensus. I paid what the market said on the day.

You are so obsessed with me (and I don't know what other word to use now), that you troll round any post I make or any BB, to see if you can find a mistake or error of my judgment and yet I have never made the patently absurd remark that I either never make a mistake or expect to.

In fact I have persistently said its an "odds" game in which losses are expected and part and parcel of a TA system.

However On Harl Specifically, I thought it more likely than not that when an official confirmation of the order was announced the SP would appreciate above the price I then paid. It did not happen and it has subsequently fallen. (The market having already priced it in).

I still think that there is good news to come over the short term (1-16 weeks) which will propel the SP upwards. Over a longer term, (3 years) if my analysis is correct I can see greater likelyhood of that stock multi-bagging more than even AVCT.

But who knows what will happen. You put your money where your mouth is and I do that. My average now is below 17p on harl.

Are you saying you should not buy more when you the SP falls and you think there is an opportunity to increase your stake at what you believe to be "bargain levels?

And as you keep bringing up Harl, my reasoning is the threat of a cash raise is keeping the SP low. Once that is resolved it will likely move forward. How the future funding is to be reconciled is the gamble.

Will it be through dilution or a greater rolling credit facility. If I am right then I think make good profits quickly If I am wrong then the SP is likely to fall before recovering so it will take longer to get me to profit. (Either way its unlikely they go bust now that the govt has given them an £800m pound order over the next decade. This underpins the risk of a permanent fall for me, hence my attitude to buy at what I consider to be low prices.

I contrast this with AVCT because clearly its not about the science. There is an opaqueness about the stage of the trial and now by implication its end date. That in turn has a domino effect on the current cash burn/funding.

There is also no path yet identified as to whether AVCT will go it alone or not. The cost of that is another hugely important factor that is restraining the SP. If they got it alone it is likely to be years more before it is commercialised. This increases the risk of alternative treatments arriving.

So I see AVCT as a higher risk based on its history of commercilisation, and its "silence" with its near half a Billion market cap already against Harl with a£25m market cap with multi- million orders already in the bag with several income streams available.

However as I am not over committed to either its not too big a deal one way or the other. And I think the odds are both will come good. But at the same I understand that both could fail.

Rah, Its only because its a Sunday, and I do appreciate the pro-AVCT posts you make but its this one sided and single issue view that imo undermines your comments.

Firstly How many times does it have to be raised that perhaps its not about the science? You(and others) post links and persuasive reasoned argument as to the over whelming likelyhood that it is working.

It seems to be something you simply won't acknowledge which then leads onto your comment today "My view is the market is thick as mince"

Really? on the back of various RNS's interviews, investor magazine articles and a very recent science day specifically targeted at the "market" with presumably key individuals invited.

The questions that the lack of SP movement raises for me, is that we all think that AVCT comms is worse than poor. That for me is a problem because of all the things to fix, it is easy and quick and is completely under their control, and yet it has been this way for years. That begs the question why?

Either they deliberately want to keep some things quiet or they are pretty contemptuous of their share holders (big and small). (Of the 2 I hope its the 2nd reason. but history is not on our side)

Others realistically COULD be, time to market, when will trial finish, state of funds, progress/plans on diagnostics. Or broadly where is the money coming from longer term than the next 12 months?

If you accept it works which clearly you do, are you really saying there is no other alternative for a "depressed" SP other than "... the market is thick as mince"?