Member Info for wyndrum

Lets not argue anymore Strangy.

There are more important things in life then for us to carry on like this.

Thats the saddest news.....

Watching, guesswork? What isn't guesswork posted here?

Are you defending MM, or just criticising my assumption?

Watching, I am going by the pots here when he was reported to have said that he dos not post when he sells but does indeed trade the stock. but lets everyone know when he is buying.

Watching, I am not paid to write anything.

I do my best to explain clearly (if not concisely), my reasoning so that I cannot be accused of either ramping or deramping. (thats not really worked out.....)

It makes no difference to some here, riply and PL as do some others, simply make up stuff and lie about me and what I say. who cares.

It does not matter what I say and respond to specific questions asked of me, I am either several posters, working for someone, all out, all in, deliberately affecting the SP etc

I trade this stock when I think its worth the risk to do so and at the same time keep a (separate) lump in in any event in case it really does max the potential.

It does not seem a particularly controversial way (to me) to try and maximise profit and I am genuinely amazed at the reaction such posts have.

Its the illogical stance that they think I am an idiot and a buffoon and a clown and yet at the same time think I influence others to buy or sell. I don't how I can be as stupid as they think and yet so influential at the same time.

The truth is of course I influence nothing. Myles on the other hand seems to have had a pretty easy ride here constantly ramping the stock and then selling into the rise. The view being "thats ok, thats his business, no one should pay attention to others" etc etc, except you all post his rampy tweets and thank him for his work puts in. (I did point this out a long time ago to be aware of this but guess what, I was shouted down)

If people here can't see that they simply react to what they want to hear rather than think things through for themselves they will most likely lose more than they win.

Strangy,

There are 2 different but related topics that you conflate.

The first one is the SP. I look at the SP movements as an indication of what might come next. Its short term and is not related to the company in any meaningful way as we all know. AVCT is the same company it was when the SP was 185p as it is now at 137p For it to go back to 185p is a 40% jump. That would be a very good return over 5 years let alone if you could get it a few weeks or days. We also know the shares fall or retrace, call it what you like. I look for these opportunities to see if I can profit from them. Its people who buy and sell shares and crowds are remarkably predictable.
Thats TA.

Completely separately is the company and its longer term prospects. The relationship between the company and its SP is impossible to put a number to, but obviously related as it influences some people to buy or sell.
As new information is released (or not, if delayed), it causes me to re-think previous assumptions I may have made.
So I will use the current SP as a factor to consider what might be going on in the company. This is not to be confused with TA. (TA is largely a mechanical system)

So when the SP did not react positively to when the 4th DE was announced it suggested to me, that the market may have already priced in the "it works" factor, but was becoming more focussed on the timescales being put back and delaying the 2nd part of the trial.

The latest info is now a further delay (attempt at MTD) which some here also think its hard to know if MTD can be achieved in such a short few month timescale, leading to the RISK of further delays which in turn then brings in the current cash pot available to see this through. Remember it was meant to be a 2 year trial, 12 months 1a, then 12months 1b. Now its at least 2 years for just 1a. The cash raise and LD purchase was a year in the making apparently, well before these delays to the trial occurred. As a result it suggests to me that funding may be an issue (again(.

I don't know if any of my assumptions are correct, I share them here for discussion. Ultimately I think the potential of the tech will allow AVCT to get over these, what look like at the moment, short term problems.

I am not as starry eyed here as many because of what AVCT have done in the past and have failed to commercialise any of their tech thus far. So I invest accordingly.

Its not a slam dunk in any shape or form and although may here like to rib me on previously failed bets the CEO's of all those companies basically said their particular project could not fail, and yet it did. AS has been just as bullish as they were in the past and has also to date failed just as spectacularly. (LFT remarks and LFT result).

Will this be different. I hope so, but I realise I don't know if it will.

Ah PL, so I do buy AVCT stock then?

But I did not buy at the top because at 185p the only stupid indicator I use being the RSI was 73.9. So while I thought there was a possibility of more rises, say up to 200p there was still a good chance that it could fall and on that basis the odds were not sufficiently in my favour to warrant a further purchase.

As for you ripley, I have made several purchase now sub 15p and have an average of 17p as a breakeven on HARL.

Also bought a bit of HE1 at 5.5p so who knows might get my money back on that one.

Still hold HEMO and I like MMAG (bought in at an average of 23p and sold 60% of the holding at 39p so the rest is just about a run for free.)

Its not all gloom and doom.so don't fret. i just try not to get carried away on hopes and dreams.

PAHOO, Except Harl have been granted the majority slice of a £1.6b govt contract and have a market cap of just £28m, have 5 different strands of business and are based in NI which is in the Govt's interest to have a success story and a 200m credit facility. I have no idea what will happen but I think the odds are they will be successful enough for a share re-rate.

AVCT also have huge potential but no orders yet limited cash available and a market cap of £374m. I still think returns here will be good too
I have others stocks we could talk about too if you want? However I don't know enough to do a Charlie Munger and put all miy150% eggs in one basket.

Each to their own

".... there’s that piece of sheer stupidity."

OK ripley lets stick with the fantasy that you own a business.

You have a lucrative contract on a fixed payment to complete the job in 12 months which is when you will get paid. You have borrowed money to pay for materials and labour based on this projection.

Then there is Parts/materials shortage which slows down work and now means you won't finish it until 18 months.

By which time you will have run out of money and cannot complete the job so you don't get paid but instead owe the bank for the now, unpaid, loan.

Anybody who has run a business knows this, accept you it would seem.

Ripley, try and grasp this revolutionary thought.... as I get new information so my views change.

I thought the market was waiting for confirmation of how well the trial was progressing, Then the confirmation came (in spades) but the SP went down.

That begs the question why.

I think until new info comes in that it is likely to do with timescales and money available to get this commercialised.

Also I think there is an element now of uncertainty of timescales which obviously feeds into my main thinking.

Overall I am still willing to risk a sum of money that this will be worth the risk for the potential reward.

If in the next 12 months some sort stab at efficacy can be produced I think the company will be bought out, but now I think it could be a race between that and another cash raise which in turn I think could be tricky. (On the plus side I am hoping that the cash burn is not too bad and that LD is doing well or an unforecastable milestone payment will arrive.) Some of these questions should be answered in the TU in a few months

If anything I think due to the latest delay it has made AVCT higher risk than it was previously because of the above.

Its just my view

RAH, that is your answer to absolutely everything you disagree with... Its FUD...

By asking for alternate views you have to accept people might post with alternate views.

Your view is that it will be hugely successful and the only question is by how much. You then invest scenario's that confirm your belief on a whole string of assumptions with only ultimately favourable outcomes that may come to pass, ignoring that or some may come to pass or even none will come to pass and projected on a timescale that we have no idea will be. And the only timescale evidence we do have for both the LFT and now this trial is that it takes longer than the company forecasts.

Its just too soon

RAH on the halving of your lower number simply shows that by getting to a figure of 743p based on the assumptions you make why can't i halve the lower number?

It was an arbitrary set of figures you used to get to your valuation, which you then arbitraily halved them to show how relatively risk free this is, so why not halve them again?

Its just too early imo to set any sort of store on any projection.

But I still don't know how much AVCT will charge/make out of this $1.5b figure because that will be material ultimately to its valuation.

I think one if not the main reason the LFT was pulled was simply its price. Thats why TT took so long, they were trying to reduce the cost of production Best test but too expensive.

The absolute basics to make a sensible valuation are not available yet.

"How you calculate chance of success at this stage?"

I don't know enough or have access to the stats for this. We know what the success/failure ratio is of new drugs being trialled and launched but AVCT does not fall quite into that bracket being a delivery system and not a new drug.

So it becomes somewhat arbitrary.

However we can see where we are currently on the trial which presently is not looking at efficacy but what we do know is encouraging and it seems to have passed with flying colours the safety aspect.

But.... Using LFT as an example of an exquisite, best in world test, best accuracy that went through various test and certification to be used for both public and corporate use still failed commercially.

So if you actually use AVCT's own historical precedent as a template it may seem a higher risk than others assign to it.

But as I say the risk assigned is arbitrary, which then makes future valuations at this stage, pretty pointless.

Its just too early to say, which is partly why the SP is where it is. Thats before we look at the finance in place to actually allow AVCT to monitise a positive outcome.

Although it's slightly chicken and egg, I can't see them raising much more money unless they have finished the trial, otherwise a bid or license deal would have already been done. Because until efficacy is calibrated why would anyone pay now for a potential dud? (Or if they did the buy out price would reflect that risk).

To raise a £100m to go it alone again would have to be the back of a certainty not part way through a trial

Anyway just my musings.

Ultimately its all going to plan (albeit slower than expected), but I think its a bit previous to start extrapolating fair, future value at this stage.

RAH, "But if you assume success is $1.5Bn sales then those are the numbers. You can halve or double that and we’re still nowhere near ‘fair value’.

Where does the $1.5b come from? Is this DOX Sales or does it refer to profit margin of DOX?

(Also if we halve 371p its 185.5p so not that far from recent fair value or am I halving the wrong figure.)

Oh for Gods sake Strangy, let it go.

I can't help it that you think I talk down to you. Thats your problem not mine.

As for the actual topic ie AVCT, I mentioned that due to a stagnating SP back in November/December time perhaps the market had already priced in that it worked. My logic was that if everyone here said it worked and pointed to all the references and research, it was plausible that others had come to the same conclusion.

So this stage of the trial there is confirmation it works. Hurrah. Now its the next step. The market looks forward not backwards.

While you are getting a boner on how good last weeks presentation was the money has moved on to see whats next.

The next hurdle looks to be longer term funding.

It seems there is enough money to 2024... (My calander says thats about 9 months away.)

There will be a trading update soon and that's when it should be clearer what's happening on the money front.

I have to say and I am surprised so few others agree, that a presentation to essentially a group of fund managers and city folk did not mention what is now imo the Elephant in the room.

As a result that mismatch explains to me the fall in the SP.

In somewhat true AVCT style after a big fanfare, they muck up imparting the right the information to the right people at the right time.

And it does matter. A lower SP particularly after a sharp fall, rattles confidence. It makes new funding that much harder to obtain, it makes the value of the IP lower.

If the SP is 700p per share and it values AVCT as a multi Billion dollar company prior to the end of the trial then it frames any license fees and/or a BO at a much higher level. If its 150p then likewise, it will be much lower.

The SP matters. (But only of course, if you have bought AVCT stock to make money. )

thats harsh PAHOO, on the basis that I have never been right we are at least equal for accuracy

I'm off next week back to the Alps, so i will take your advice.

If I could care enough I would be slowly banging my head against a wall....Its not about the science, it's about the money.

If it was about the science.... the SP would have risen, not fallen..... How do we know this? Because of the things the scientist's said about the Trial to date at the SD.

When there is more clarity or direction on that then the SP will start to appreciate, in the mean time its back in a trading range.

(Oh and just in case I am not clear... If there is further new news on the DE or other scientific matters that in turn will influence time to market, which is what now the market is waiting for, that I believe will push the SP up. And what must be clear to all now, that is what the SD did not provide, even though it was aimed at fund managers.....

Ripley as always, you encourage what you proclaim to deplore, with some of the usual suspects also agreeing with not to engage by continuing the thread..... It really is becoming more obvious every time you do this.
As BV said take your own advice.
However this is some of what you posted:

"All this crap about commercialisation totally ignores potential licence deals or take over offers for the co, the platform, AVA6k or 3996. It’s just hardcore FUD. Don’t give them the time of day. They’ll vanish early afternoon as they did yesterday and every day. They never appear when it’s blue. They didn’t buy in sub £1 and they never appear on truly awful share BBs. Just blank them. It’s very easy."

So when are these potential license deals arriving then? and for how much? And where is the Take over bid? When is that coming in? Is it we have to wait for the end of this part of the trial or all of the trial, and when will that be?

So you have (as I do too) hopes as opposed to anything more, of exterior funding appearing but to date have no inkling or understanding when this might happen or indeed if it ever will. In the meantime AVCT carry on burning cash, but sure its "crap" to consider that.

(also its early afternoon and I bought sub 100p and I do comment when it goes blue. Other than that I thought it was your best post yet.)

DTW well we both agree the SP is no more than a snap shot at a given time on the stock. (when will it ever not be?)

However when you go on to say"....provided entirely by gamblers and rainbow chasers. " What? when also, will that ever not be the case in your opinion?

You are saying the price today is only because of these groups. Yet not only is that not true as there are many different reasons people and indeed ii's buy and sell but your assertion is not based on any factual info to hand but a made up justification for the surprising downturn in the SP. (The fall could be in fact ii's selling their bonds).

As for rainbow chasers.... does that not describe most here? Buying in the hope of £20/£50/£100 per share (take your pick)?

And finally... the fullness of time. What does that mean? next year, 5 years ,10 years?

What I don't get is that if the AIM market is only for morons what are you doing here?..... Oh wait.....