Member Info for wyndrum

really? Reduced from what to when? when is this part of the trial to finish? If this part of the trial can be extended is it possible that the second part can be extended too?

Too many assumptions for me

PAH: "Other downward pressure is the converted bond shares being sold as well. "

Do you actually know this is taking place or are you guessing?

Neut, I have to say, there was no expectation from a TA pov of a fall. Quite the opposite actually.

The "worse " TA outcome was for it stay in a trading range between the mid 150's and 160's

My best guess is (based on what happened previously when there was an expectation on no need for 4th DE), is that when that was confirmed the SP fell back.

This new unexpected MTD request has put the trial date conclusion, back to an unspecified time (Unfortunately what AS says as mid 2023 is not much use as he does not seem to be in control of when this part of the trial trial is to conclude).

This is then exacerbated by a now long silence on the new DE. (Has it started? what are the parameters? etc.)

And again when the cash raise was last done there was no expectation of the trial being extended, which may mean (I am only guessing) that now makes the cash runway tight for completion.

So, we are back to guessing some pretty crucial items, and when in doubt the market if it sees an increase of risk, takes some money off the table. (DYOR etc etc)

I am sorry RAH that you thought I was being confrontational. It was not my purpose.

The fund mangers know a lot more about AVCT now than they did last week but we have had a slump in the SP.

The actual RNS's and the interview and the SD have all said how good the company is. There should be plenty of new investors wanting to get on board but the opposite seems to have occurred.

I think the assumption that its the ignorance of fund managers that have just attended a highly detailed SD to explain the tech and its potential, is flawed.

It can be irrational, but I think that saying is a bit overdone and always used when a SP falls rather than rises.

The SP is below what it was before the JAN RNS broke the good news. That imo is beyond irrational.

Nothing wrong in trying to figure out what might be the cause, after all that's the whole point of the game.

Which is also why you don't over commit because quite contrary to some quoting Charlie Munger at me when I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago, us PI's don't know very much at all.

Well RAH (and thank you for your reasoning), I have always thought a Buy Out the most likely outcome for AVCT pretty much based on what you posted.

Therefore the fall in the SP makes no sense unless there is doubt about something.

Its difficult to make an argument against the trial thus far and when you say enough cash until mid 2024, thats only 15/16 months away, so i think it must be the money.

Again I think fund managers are much more cautious than us here and don't make so many assumptions. If they see no evidence that a buy out will occur or any timescale for one, then they will discount it until they hear differently.

So while you and I gamble on that outcome, I don't think they are, and ergo it looks to me as though they see some dilution coming until again, they hear different.

Its not that this won't be successfully resolved, I am as confident as I can be that it will, I just don't know how yet and what the implications for the SP are.

Well RAH (and thank you for your reasoning), I have always thought a Buy Out the most likely outcome for AVCT pretty much based on what you posted.

Therefore the fall in the SP makes no sense unless there is doubt about something.

Its difficult to make an argument against the trial thus far and when you say enough cash until mid 2024, thats only 15/16 months away, so i think it must be the money.

Again I think fund managers are much more cautious than us here and don't make so many assumptions. If they see no evidence that a buy out will occur or any timescale for one, then they will discount it until they hear differently.

So while you and I gamble on that outcome, I don't think they are, and ergo it looks to me as though they see some dilution coming until again, they hear different.

Its not that this won't be successfully resolved, I am as confident as I can be that it will, I just don't know how yet and what the implications for the SP are.

RAH, all of what you post is valid.

What you don't include is the money.

I don't know the answer to this, so it a genuine question.

We are probably 18 months - 2 years away from the current trial completing.

DTW posited that there was likely enough cash for 2 years . (However as a company you don't raise cash the day you run out, so assuming there is 2 years of cash available a raise would probably be announced 6-9 months at least before hand.

So, lets assume all is good and the trial completes in 18 months, How long after that can AVCT commercialise its tech?

I don't know if there are more hoops to jump through after the efficacy bit is done? are there? Or can they market the following day to get revenue in?

(This ignore license/milestones etc but we have no knowledge if or when these might appear, so for the worse case scenario, and it might be AVCT's choice to go it alone, how soon do we think money might be coming in from this Tech?

This looks to me as though we are going to have good figures. This latest RNS to highlight and flesh out the numbers in a presentation on the back of a new broker with slightly later figures adds up (but only imo) that we might be in for a good SP appreciation.

If this agreement is accepted by the DUP (and probably even if its not), then this is a big barn-size door opening for the NI economy of which you would expect such a high profile name and company as H&L to materially benefit from.

Bailey, I remember Starbright highlighting the reason company's list is to have the opportunity to raise money.

The SD was for fund managers and for City folk.

The actual presentation surprised me in its technical detail. I would be surprised if they understood the slides presented other than the general gist that was being given to them if this was not their field, and as it isn't (as they are the money men), so the reaction to having an audience of potential future fund raisers has been a very sharp decline in the SP.

My best guess is that there was a discussion somewhere or a realisation that to move this forward to commercialisation (short of a BO) that more money needs to be raised.

ripley:"Why the mad panic? Every post is about the SP, not the actual company. Everything is negative. Everything is fear inducing and it’s twirling in a self fulfilling ball of anxiety."

What on earth are you talking about?

Most of yesterdays posts were about how good the data was and perhaps the market was still aware of it.

As the SP fell naturally, absolutely naturally, that engendered some threads to discuss what I termed a seeming "Mismatch" between the news and the SP reaction. As a result I and a few others, tried to explore reasons why this might be the case.

Its your type of post, whipping up supposed discord where there is none . And again its the same half dozen of you that just glory in immediately under the flimsiest of pretences to start and continue these imagined slights to your beloved company.

I remember when there were shorts out on AVCT and you kept bringing them into this BB when no one was talking about them, basically telling everybody to ignore the subject!

Now you are continuing to highlight the fall in the Sp (that most have either moved on from or are figuring out ways to try and profit from it), attempting to continue the "FUD" you keep claiming is so detrimental to all share holders.

What really is your and the half dozen of you that post always in lockstep with each other's, agenda?

RAH:"Fantastic. That’ll be 20Bn great British pounds please."

So, why isn't it then?

yeah, thats right, Human reaction repeats itself when subject to similar stimuli.

You and me being prime examples

ripley I won't speak on their behalf but you are looking backwards, not forwards.

The market looks forward too.

Its always about "what's next", not about what's confirmed. (good or bad).

The science is "done" (by and large). Now the most pressing and obvious question is what is happening re the latest DE. Will it really finish in 6 months? Soon it will be about the upcoming trading update. What is cash burn like, how will it be financed etc etc.

This won't stop, nor can it for now, but its always about the future not the past.

well, whatever the reasons are, its very close to support so I expect a bounce from (more or less) here.

DTW, I wouldn't argue with your view(s) that you have replied to because I think it is a valid pov to have.

Therefore I think that its the old " Markets hate uncertainty" scenario. You could well be right but the unknowns are of sufficient quantity and breadth that they want more or firmer guidance on the "unknowns".

As I said earlier. this whole process is dealing with one hurdle after another. Just because the latest one is cleared does not then detract from the next one, in fact the reverse, its the next one now that is the most important, and when that is successfully resolved the next one will become the most important until its actually done......

Well, as always D, you are very generous and supportive with your view of me relative to others, so thanks again for having the courage to post it.

I was really looking forward to this week and today, having thought long and hard over the weekend about what was coming next, I figured it would move to the recent high of 185p because SD confirmed the Jan RNS and then as it seemed to outperform or at least back up the hype with real data, it would move to 200p plus and thought AVCT would have 5 continuous days of rises!!

So as always with this one, there are other things going on which we can only guess at.

Somebody posted that maybe no one has contacted AVCT about buying or licensing the tech and that they will be forced to go it alone.... Its possible I guess.

I think the SP reflects the extension to the trial because it seems to be out of AVCT's hands and just because AS says 6 months does not mean it will finish in the summer. The uncertainty of actual progress in terms of the trial, ie one bit finishing and the next bit starting, is I think the most likely reason for some selling as its gone a bit back burner (again).

Hey ho....

Thanks Tug,

Kind of you to say, and also to stick your head above the parapet!

DTW,

A fair summation I think.

The other question that can't be answered is "when", will it be ready for commercialisation.

You believe it will be within the current cash constraints of about 2 years.

I am for instance not sure the trial will be finished in 2 years.

As for cash burn, we don't know about LD yet. It was cash generative, what if AVCT have piled in some extra development money initially to take it further?

What if wages, expansion/relocation, energy costs, business rates etc etc have all moved significantly upwards (which is not beyond the realms of possibility) and cash burn is up?

What if spinning a few of the other plates is now requiring more cash input then it has previously?

And as we have all now experianced, this is not just in AVCT's hands. The "unexpected" DE extending the trial by at least another 6 months is proof of that.

All of these unknowns put external pressure on the company. Thus far and to their credit they clear each hurdle, but the race is nowhere near done yet, so yes, as each hurdle is cleared then the next one hoves into view.

Thats the nature of it.

I expected a rise today, instead it has come back to challenge the support/resistance level of around 142p. (Who Knew!

The difference to investors if it is to be licensed or a big cash raise to go it alone, is huge. It affects the current SP and the time before commercialisation is acheived.

And as you say these are unknowns.

Here is one more thing. Just because it works is not enough. Many here are not bothered about the timescale.

So, what would you say if you knew it was to be 20 years before any money came in? Would that affect your reasons to hold?

Lets say 20 years is too long and is unreasonable a time frame... How about 10 years... probably still too long and unreasonable but its less so. How bout 6 or 7 years?

The question then becomes.. "When do you think it will be commercialised?" The longer it goes on the greater chance an alternative therapy might supplant it.

The longer it takes to come to market the shorter its life span is before alternatives are likely found.

All unknowns.

Winning in this game as far as I can see over the years, is all about timing. To ignore or not think deeply about that aspect of any stock chosen, I think is folly.