Member Info for wyndrum

BV, this is what takes us around in circles. I ask the same questions and what you have posted gets repeated back:

What does "therapeutically meaningful dose" mean? Its not your fault or mine but AS's. He could have said between 70- 80% or whatever, some sort of yardstick.

Followed by.." whilst, when we measure in the bloodstream at exactly the same time, the concentration is very much lower, as we would hope."" How much lower? what were you expecting? Again he could have given some sort of calibration but he didn't.

And here's the thing... He could have, so why didn't he? (Because he surely has this info already.)

There are 2 options I think: its not quite as good as preclinical and wanted the jan rns to frame the good news, and the SD to put into a context that is still positive but perhaps not as jaw dropping as some here maintain.

or he is a tease and wants to be around personally with the big, big reveal.

Thats actually my point gje, I don't think its binary at all. I think it is an advance on the pre clin stuff. I just took issue a bit with assumptions that it is going to be revealed that it is a 18 x improvement on what went before and all the "unequivocal significant" quotes to mean only one thing.

It may turn out that way, I don't know, but it just as easily might not be so dramatic too.

All I am saying that the slam dunk view of this working as well as it did pre clinical is not currently accepted by the market and was trying to get an acknowledgement that that view does not have to come with any ulterior motive.

Many here believe SD will remove all the ambiguity.

Because this part trial is still ongoing I think the data might not be as forthcoming as we would like or expected.

I for instance, given that nothing has changed since the JAN RNS, don't expect much more detail, because if there was more detail why wasn't it given in the RNS? The key note speakers could be enthusiastic with what we already know rather than bolstering AVCT's tech based on new data. Because now they would have to have access to that data and that would be potentially having info that the market does not have.

There are 2 key things in my view. One is how well does it actually work. Is there enough data at this stage of a 2 part trial to say that? I don't know) and two, when is it coming to market. (and I am pretty sure fund managers and II's share the same view and thats what they will want from this SD.

So we will see. I will be as happy as anyone if there is a great reveal next week , I am just thinking it might just be another step in a very long process that incrementally takes avct forward.

That the SP is not higher?

The update has been out for over a month, this BB (so influential that posts here affect the SP), Twitter, Myles, interviews done, SD announced and the move was from 130-166p (20%)

So for a block buster tech that works, the market with plenty of time and analysis sees it here.

This reinforces the view of a few here that the data released thus far was not unequivocal in the sense the majority keep quoting. Everyone expects based on what was released that it does indeed work, but the deliberate vague remarks from AS with his past history, has made the market wait for specific info and data before deciding on how to value the company further.

To keep bashing and attempting to discredit posters personally only highlights the lack of argument to the counter points raised.

I have no problem with the "best outcome" posts, they could well be correct as more info is released but there is nothing wrong in debating their assumptions either.

CI, well it looks to be holding around these levels so I think it might have bottomed out.

If the SP is to go up then my "logic" on the selling is that they are cashing in on the big rise from around 5p (they have been selling down from 24p), the big order is spread over several years and does not initself make the company but the investment will modernise the yard very quickly and I think further orders will come and there will be a snowball effect.

I have no idea if any of this will come to pass but the risk reward looks worth the punt. Imagine if it become a half billion or billion £ company! (Thats rampy for me!! :0))

If you read PL's post that is exactly what I said. Lots of unknowns with no way of knowing how this will pan out.

Hopeless, absolutely hopeless.

For a BB that likes to continually self-congratulate itself on its great in-depth research, its objectivity is non-existent.

yes DTW, quite right, lets not discuss anything other than the perfect outcome. Lets not acknowledge that we actually, in fact, know very little as to what is going on and at what stage AVCt are in either the trial or indeed with their new aquisition.

Lets not acknowledge that we don't even know what AS's future pathway is for the company. Go it alone, BO, license, Split the co. into 2?

Ok Rah, tell me, how much more has the trial cost now its running for another 6 months (at least).

What if after 6 months MTD has not been attained, do they run another 6 months?

What do you know about how the latest DE is going? (Patients/doseages etc?)

Will this extra time spent on DE shorten or lengthen the next phase of the trial?

If the tech works (which by all accounts it certainly does) why haven't AVCT been bought out already?

Has an offer gone in and been rejected? Does AS want to go it alone? Do either of these potential outcomes make any difference as to how long it would take for this tech to be monitised. (Because at some stage it has to, you know).

There are many paths and outcomes (and therefore unknowns) that are yet to be taken that to bin someone simply for pointing that out seems somewhat mypoic.

Neut, we don't know what the cash burn is?

We don't know how much money is going into DX to support LD with new products.

We don't know how much the other TX applications are costing to sustain and develop. (presumably that increases as time goes by?)

As i say, I get its your view and more more power to your elbow, but there are so many unknowns and I take your point about trusting AS or not, but so far I have not found his rhetoric to be matched by outcomes, so until it is I will be wary when I think his statements are ambiguous.

Anyway 1 week to go but I am leaning to a "holding" type presentation, rather than a Jaw drop one.

Happy to be wrong of course, but I guess as this has turned out to be a slow burner that personally I find it harder to maintain the " RNS-rich, could-drop-any- day", type company I was at one stage hoping for.

I hope you are right, by the way :0)

I like H&W's prospects given how low the mkt cap of the company is (£25m), at 10 times it is only £250m and babcoock is valued at £1.4b. Now, I am not saying they will be there in a couple of weeks but I can see a potential for 5-10 bagger in 24-36 months if thinks go their way. and it looks to me as they have cash flow to update and modernise the yards then labour costs become less influential on costs. Coupled with a UK govt that is desperate to get some sort of positive headlines of a "Great British" success story and there are a lot of, unrelated to ship building, but key factors that could play into them winning future orders.

Early days of course but the risk reward looks good to me (and I am not referring to the chart). Made a further 4 purchases this week including 2 today. Dyor etc etc

Neut, "Everywhere you look... moneys being spent on anything but... Tx..? "

Really?

They have 2 divisions and we are in the middle of a Tx trial and you think no money is being spent there?

As an alternative, could not the cash raise been to fund the trial to the end (ie next year with the efficacy element completed?)

I am surprised that so many here assume AS when he talks in vague terms, is being upfront.

For instance when he says "The Acquisition is the first step in a M&A-led growth strategy by Avacta for its diagnostics division, ....."
that could be a purchase next week, next year, or never.

Smoke and mirrors is my experience of his utterances.

Basically we really have no idea whats going on.

We have a tech that "works" but we don't know yet how well, or when the trial will complete or what the next steps are after that.

We have no idea if or when the next milestone payments will arrive. We have no proof at all that a license deal is about to be revealed. We have no idea if there is BO in the wings.

To assume anything based on "Hints" is a stretch based on past performance.

By all means take a view and back your hunches accordingly but there are alternatives to the picture you see.

This has gone on for some time with every rise, however slight, being sold into with ultimately a declining SP.

What seems to be the case now is that the sellers prepared to off load at sub 15p is starting to dry up.

The jump (if it comes) could be pretty good but as buyers have been caught all the way down as having paid too much presumably now new buyers must be very wary. The pull will be for them to get in what they think is THE low so as to maximise profits.

The RNS today is good without being fantastic but I would think that H&W are going to RNS anything they can to convince shareholders the only way from here is up and to try and change the mood music surrounding the SP.

(fwiw), Its always hard to say but I think we are close to the lows now and am building up a position around these prices

Thanks

would AVCt be dutybound, if they have all this data, to release it in an RNS asap rather than just sit on it until it suited them (ie potentially near/on SD?)

I seem to recall SD being announced before the 5th DE surprise came through. I am just thinking that SD might be much more general in its brief and info than some here hope esp given to whom its aimed at. (ie fund managers etc)

sorry, neut, who are you referring to?

(My post was a response (albeit sarcastic) to bitl seemingly dismissing Dx as a value driver.)

"Tx is the only value driver here."

Well, that was money well spent on LD then....

Although AS did say:
"· The global IVD market is projected to reach sales of $113.1 billion by 2026[2] which comprises a wide range of test products into multiple healthcare settings from hospitals to home testing."
and
"M&A strategy for growing shareholder value " followed by
"The Acquisition provides Avacta with an established route to market in the UK and several European IVD markets for existing and future products that it distributes, develops or acquires. It is the first step in building an integrated IVD business with global reach that has the advantage of Avacta's proprietary Affimer® platform to differentiate its immunodiagnostic products in a competitive market. Avacta has been working for a year on this M&A-led growth strategy for its diagnostics division and the establishment of a pipeline of potential acquisitions in the European diagnostics sector."

the short term price depends a bit on how the presentation goes today.

I am assuming (yikes!) that the market lost confidence in DM and it was not just the decision of the BoD to let him go.

If that's correct then they would have expressed their reasons (more assumptions!) and one might have been poor/comms/transperency. Yet more assumptions....

Anyway,

If the new CEO acknowledges the failings of what went before and promises things will be different and comes across as trustworthy and competent... (Ok, I have run out of my stash of assumptions now), then there could be quite a favourable response for the SP....

On the other hand........

Hi Mike,

I wondered if you had any further thoughts on buying in as the market has been quite patient around these levels for some time.

Cheers

Given I have restated what I said several times, are you all stating now, I didn't say it?

(Bear in mind it was not me that brought this up.)

Quite right ripley, (by the way who started the remarks?)