Member Info for wyndrum

So DTW, AIm was perfectly fine at valuing AVCT at 185p recently? So its only when it falls its useless?

As you know but deliberately ignore with your silly personal rant, I am questioning his CEO skills not his scientific ones.

I had my doubts on MM motives when he targeted me (among others to be banned from this BB because he did not like my comments) over a year ago. I have mentioned this a few times since that it might be wise to view his comments through the prism of his share holding.

At the time it was assumed he had approx 2m AVCT shares and therefore I viewed his ramping reports (which at that time was the slam dunk LFT income) may not have been as generously shared as was widely held here.

Apologies SB, for putting words into your mouth (Judging by the SP reaction it would be accurate to say I thought it was a flop)

I think the SP reaction was the lack of any pathway to commercialisation. How short term it will be, will be dependent on the news cycle from AVCT.

Was it 3 years ago now that there was a cash raise at 120p, now we have another one and we are from a share holders pov almost back where we started. Which seems crazy given the science. So I guess, its not the science.

cj62, What I didn't expect was for a substantial fall in the SP! Did you?

Its not the science for goodness sake... ITS THE MONEY!!!!!!! How can you not grasp this?

It works, the SD only confirmed what was known (albeit in more detail) but when will it be available to the market? The unexpected 5th DE has thrown up a further delay and there is no news on this vital development as to why, what, how and when it will all be completed.

Its has to be commercialised for the market cap of the company to be justified and supported.

Timing is key, its everything and after the SD I was no nearer to knowing when that would happen than before. Were you?

PAHOO, so you expected then the SP to fall after the Jan RNS, the SD and the interviews?

The CEO has a responsibility to the share holders.

Do you think the SD presentation was well targeted at its audience?

The City is a bit more fast moving than you seem to give it credit for. The attendee's would already have been well briefed on AVCT before the day. This is not their first rodeo, and it has been known for them to work long hours and over weekends to produce reports. Its been a week and and the SP opened last Thursday at 160p

Given the historical movement pi's can generate, this stock does not require II's buying to move the SP.

The thing is, like it or not, the buck stops with the CEO. What do you think of the comms that AVCT generate. What do you think of their website and returning customers enquiries? Happy with the comms (at the time) on Bams and Elisa? Happy with his comments when he pulled the LFT? Heard anything about it since?

What share holders want is confidence in the company to maximise the returns for them. That's the deal. I don't think overall his track record suggests he is the best man any more at this stage in the company's development.

As SB pointed out the SD was a flop as it did not match the info to the invited audience and you have to wonder who's input prevailed.

There is a theme here (imo) that these "events" actually harm the company rather than promote when measured by the SP reaction.

I am increasingly of the view AS is not the best CEO for the stock holders. It is not to discredit in any way his scientific prowess and expertise as getting OD status and the whole push on this trial from a scientific input, but this is a completely different role.

Whether by design or not the interviews are ambiguous, the financial side of the equation is never adequately addressed and the track record of commercialising products has thus far been poor.

The latest evidence for me was that he was surprised when the trial had to be extended to find MTD with no explanation thus far as to how that is proceeding (or indeed much comment on it at all given the implications of further delays) That does not bode well on him being on top of his brief.

Anyway, it points to me that they need a more experienced business focussed person to drive this forward as the business opportunities are close to mushrooming and I am not sure he has the skill set for this now very intense and I imagine, complex array of negotiations and decisions that will soon need to be made.

It reads to me as great potential and at the same time being conservative with revenue.

I have a feeling (and that's all it is) that JW wants to very much under-promise and over-deliver.

Energy costs I think are being underplayed with the scale of the return to more "normal" levels.

Although this is long(ish) term the SP still has the opportunity to move substantially up from here as the company has such a low market cap.

Whats next is the drip drip RNS's of some of the the many tenders being converted to orders to confirm the projections.

It seemed to me a pretty detailed update and my experience is that the less vague they are, the more accurate or reliable the projections are.

Anyway, (fwiw) I will continue to buy around these levels as this looks a very good risk/reward over the next 12-36 months (imo DYOR etc)

I think the real question is: will Hell freeze over before you ever get a price prediction right.

Are you thinking that AVCT could buy them or be a candidate, for their DX business?

aw shucks, .........

sorry D, I am not on your wavelength.. What am I missing?

in what sense "interesting" Hurst?

In your vast experience of decoding buys and sells have you ever, seen a sell?

well done!

support means it's supporting the SP above 142p

So if it closes below 142p then the support has been broken (and 142p will become a resistance or celling to be broken through in the future)

Right now it looks as though it will hold which if it does strengthens the support and makes it less likely that it will be broken in the future.

Looks to me that its testing the 142p support

It was not "seized upon" by me. I read the slide and realised what it said, but guess what, I get tired of pointing out the obvious and then get slaughtered as being so "negative"!

But as I said this Tribe is now so defensive in its belief in the company it is impossible for them to engage in normal conversation.

OAMOT, I am guessing of course, but I think, in say 12 months time, there will be more info so as to judge better what its worth to a buyer.

As RD has just pointed out, this is not Chemo without any side effects. I expect that in 12 months (maybe sooner, who knows) the efficacy will be clearer and the side effects, such that they are will be clearer to evaluate.

OAMOT, I am guessing that by then it will be possible to more accurately realise what the tech is worth?

I am just saying I have no idea how you value the tech with some degree of accuracy so to be able to see what a buyer might pay, not that anybody else can't.

Neut, I think the company will be bought out in the next 12-18 months,

I have no idea for how much because I still don't know what AVCT's share of the cake is (I know the market size gets bandied about but I don't know what AVCT will charge and make etc etc)

I would love to say £5b but its just a plucked out of the air figure.

I have at this stage no worry about the overall outcome but am personally frustrated with this temporary backward step in the SP because time is of the essence to me. This trial had a 2 year timeline and now the first part is going to be 2 years at least on its own. The rate of return is always calibrated by the time it takes.

(Had you bought this stock 10 years ago according to HL chart it was 130p todays price would not be a very good return for the risk undertaken would it? Timing is everything.)

Doc, we are discussing if we can divine a plausible scenario for the unexpected SP decline.

One view is that its the irrationality of the market and that there is no reason for the fall but at the same time almost ignoring the fact that it has happened. Its not much good saying it should not have happened when it has.

RAH's post had too many assumptions in it for me to think it undermined my thoughts. That's all.

Anyway, who knows, maybe it is a storm in a tea cup and will bounce all the way back this afternoon.

Like I always say, these conversations don't make any difference to the outcome and we are all just killing time until the end result reveals itself.