Member Info for wyndrum

OAMOT,

This isn't a brilliant analogy but this is my point:
Say Ford make cars at an average cost of $30k and AVCT make new brilliant engines for Ford cars. Does AVCT charge Ford $30k per engine?

Maybe they will but maybe they won't.

The valuations that RAh in particular bandies about are based on very loose assumptions which have no actual factual relevence yet.

Its not FUD to say that an unsubstantiated valuation might be wrong. Or maybe is, I don't know any more, but surely logic at some stage must play a part if a stock is worth £50 plus very shortly then why has it 130p now?

IF, the news and potential profit margins are shown to be great, then that is when the re-rate will happen. All I am saying (repeatedly), is that its too early to make these projections when they are based on nothing more than made up figures with no basis of fact.

Its all assumptive based on no corroborating info. But thats ok, apparently, but to question it is wrong....

(Anybody see SVB collapse coming? Crap does happen and a more detailed look at risk is a pre-requisite of successful investing)

except RAH, we don't know what the projected sales figures will be, so its pointless. (Unless you can tell me what AVCT will charge per dox dose). What if its 10% of a dox dose and reduces the "market to 150m or at 20%, £30m, what then?

It just seems to me until somebody corrects my logic, that it is at this stage, too early to even remotely speculate on forward valuations.

(That may be a reason why there is this "disconnect" ?

My asking for clarification is that (presumably) dox sales are $1.5b, so I guess if the info is out there you can divide that by the amount of global treatments and work out what it is per dose.

My question is, just as an example, if DOX was $1000 a pop why would AVCT charge that? Could it be a multiple of that figure or a fraction?

It sounds to me that that is a pretty fundamental figure to know to be able to make any guess at global revenue and therefore a guesstimate at valuing AVCT.

Or as I say, am I missing something?

I honestly don't understand the valuations based on the oft quoted $1.5b figure

The dox market (sales) is $1.5b, yes?

Why does that mean AVCT get $1.5b sales too? Is it just an assumption that we will charge exactly the same as the current dox treatment? (and therefore effectively doubling the price of treatment.)

To try and deflect any future insults, I am sincerely asking this question as I keep seeing this as a basis of potential AVCT valuations but I am just trying to see how it is arrived at.

I don't mind or care if it is just an assumption based on the current Dox sales and nothing else, but I would just like to know from the more knowledgeable posters here if thats the thinking.

Perhaps its not about the science anymore...?

well, quite the roller coaster.....

right now the most recent moves has put in a support at 6.37 which has been tested and moved away from.

This looks positive and it is a continuation rise from the tested lows of 5.23p

If this holds then the next positive sign will be a close above 7.15p (the next target would be about 8p)

Anyway, we will see but in my eyes odds are in favour of further rises than falls.

Sorry, when I said it’s not black or white I was referring to the process. Just because it works does not mean it’s the end of the journey.

So wind in the insults and at least make an effort to look ahead and stop being so surprised at what keeps coming next.

I am a shareholder ok.
The risk has moved on. It’s not about whether it works or not. That was an issue previously but not now.
The “risk “ now is whether Avct get it to market or not. And that’s not nothing.

Many companies have good tech. But run out of cash, Go bust, and get assimilated in administration. The technology comes to the surface but the original shareholders miss out.

I’m not saying this will happen or even what the odds are but that is now imo the risk.

And before you all go mental why do you think given all the really good stuff that’s happened over the last few weeks and months the sp is where it is?

This is a process with lots of pitfalls along the way that can end up with the shareholder missing out. It’s a marathon and once this latest hurdle has been overcome there will be a new one.

Just calm down and either stick with it or sell when you feel like it. It’s not black or white (imo dyor)

Who said it didn’t?

I don’t know how many times this is going to be repeated that it works.

That’s not the current issue.

Why was MTD thrust upon the trial at the last minute. Where are we now in the trial. Is there sufficient funds available to complete the trial?

yes it works…. Great but we knew that 6 months ago

Hi Mo,
I’m just guessing but it will probably take the next Trading Update or new news to take this beyond mid 30’s at best.

I’ll keep a small tranche here to see how it plays out but I have a mechanical system that if enough profit is made then I sell and have an almost free ride and I am in that fortunate position here now with this due to Yanis making me aware of Mmag earlier this year.

Every time it looks like it will close above 17.5 I think I can relax. Then it falls back down and I end up buying more!

Stop messing around and just settle at 19p or so. Your killing me!

Hi Yanis,
Thought the results were somewhat underwhelming. Fall in profit margins and a move down in cash flow as a result of rentals. Didn’t like the continued reference to challenging environment.

Longer term ok as rental’s might generate more revenue eventually. Short term maybe a bit more pain to come for the SP. (DYOR etc)

This could be a post that results in a response of”yeah, well Duh!” And gets a 100 recs.

Bulls here spread fud as much and as destructively as any negative view.
Fear in “don’t miss out by selling your golden ticket”
Uncertainty in “ news could drop at any time” also Telling everyone not to listen to any other view than theirs.
Doubt in “This is the chance of a life time, so you would be mad in selling now. The SP has only gone down through manipulation”

Just be aware what might be going on here.

IMO , These bb Serve very little helpful purpose to newer investors.

Deary me…
I can do dot joining as well as most on here and I have tried to point out that more often than not that has no relation to the sp. It’s not that l dismiss “research “ but rather it doesn’t really help you buy in at the best price
TA at least recognises that it’s crowd psychology that moves the SP and gives you an insight to what might be the best approach. And for those that doubt that just read this bb over the last few days, weeks, months, years…..don’t over commit and don’t “love the company”…or do…makes no difference
to me…or anyone else xx

The trouble is ripley, you’re so busy trying to be this childish white knight bashing alternative views that you simply can’t see what is in front of your eyes . It seems to me you have come round to what I said a week or so ago that it’s the DE delay and the possibility of it affecting cash flow. But all you and others do is go “arf arf” and green bin me (again). Still you and PL usually get there in the end.
Another lovely day skiing!

Except RAH, none of what you imply is done. Put the word potential in front of it and it changes everything. You are talking if buts and maybes. Right now Avct do not have the resources to bring any of the potential to market. Your assumptions at based on an unsubstantiated premise. And right now it’s compounded by delays in the very first part of a long process. The skiing was great though!

So much for you not responding to me......oh well...

I wonder while I am away who you lot will decide to pick on instead?

Good response ES to a straight forward exchange of views. I thought you defended your position well..... Jeeze.

Would it ever hurt so much for just once, somebody saying... "do you know what, maybe I did go off on one there... sorry..."

ES, we are back to assumptions based on nothing other than your bias.

Whos says the MM's did manipulate it down? By 25% really? (Why didn't they manipulate it up 25%? (of course it wouldn't of been manipulation then, or wait... maybe they did to force bronte out and the real price was always 135p?

Ooh...

Or who said it was now that bronte went out in may have been just to get them less than the declared .5%. When do they have to declare anyway?

Look, i don't know either but I just don't see the point in guessing about stuff like this. Its s completely illegal so this is pretty fanciful stuff. And every single BB thinks this goes on which means they would all be in prison because its not that hard to police if it went basically every single dayin every single stock.

And even if it does, if you feel its that rigged then don't invest in AIM stocks. (Because I don''t know why you think if it can manipulated and held at a false figure of -25% below market value, then why not push it another 25% or 50%?)

How about if you think it odd the SP fell that much stop looking at the convoluted, illegal, least likely scenario and look for other more rational explanations. Such as longer timescales and DE5 info delay that might be the reason some money has been withdrawn. Remember you don't have to completely sell out to remove some risk. Its not all or nothing. (well most investors its not. By and large, this BB seems to have its own weird way of calculating risk.)

Strangy,

You are incapable of understanding what I Post and in any event never believe a word I say, so quite why you want to carry on your self indulgent one sided desire for an argument is beyond me.

I asked for line to be drawn under this, which you have refused.

I will no longer respond to you