Member Info for wyndrum

This notion of full or fair value is never going to happen. Otherwise there is no point in buying the company. The buyer will want to get a low price to then profit from the company assets later.

I know I keep banging on about this, but its money we are talking about, not the science.

Right now as best as I can see, we have the 2 strands working to expectation (which was pretty high from the outset).

What we don't know is when the trials will be finished and at quite what level of efficacy they will have.

So until that is known, you can't see yet the actual applications rather than just the very broad , general areas us lot think COULD be addressed by the tech.

So when will it be available, what cancers will it be used on first, how will it be administered, ie lots more dox doses or big ger injections, and how much profit will be made?

We are I think still timewise many months, maybe a couple of years away from this info.

In the meantime I would expect the SP to drift up as more good news is released but right now, I think the market is probably nervous on cash burn and cash on hand and how well LD is doing to help keep the money coming in. So given none of us have a clue where we are on the basic financials I imagine the market is the same, therefore I would not be surprised to see a dip in the SP as this nervousness is translated to a bit of selling to the run up next week.

If the TU is as expected (ie cash flow under control, at least a slight increase t in LD's turnover and profit), then I would expect to see quite a jump as nerves would be calmed.

So who knows where this is going in the short term, but as we have all seen the short term soon becomes the long term and I for one never imagined that with the tech performing this well, this long into the trial, that we would be hanging on to 130p a share.

Ok, gmcc, but where is the difference? I have made several purchase of AVCT over the last 3 year and have sold when they hit a value that I was aiming for. I hope not to wait another 3 years before selling my stake too.

I never quite understand the "not bothered" about the SP though. Would you be buying if you thought he SP was likely to fall? Presumambly not.

I get we can't know for sure, but don't we buy because we think, give or take a few %, that the only way is up? in which case the SP is something we all "bother" about?

Anyway, I guess my point is we may have different methods but we want the same thing and therefore the lines between traders and LTH can often be pretty blurred.

(The only caveat I would make is people who Day Trade, which is a different kettle of fish altogether)

Bella, I though the whole point of the safety study is on tumours resistant to Dox?

""Traders watch the SP -Investors watch the company ""

Thats fair enough... truly..

However it is relevant as to what price you paid when you decided to watch the company.

For instance 10 years ago it was 110p.

It depends on your expectations and timeframe and risk profile.

And when the individual's buy, the SP is generally very important in framing the individual's idea of good value or not.

So "watching the SP" is not quite the irrelevance the catchy little saying alludes to.

Basically its a mixture, and a trader is exactly the same as a long term holder but on probably a shorter timescale.

But if you really do want to misplace your toilet on the difference between a trader and a LTH then define how long the time interval has to be to move from Trader to LTH?

And if you bought today with the view to holding for the next 5 years to see where this goes and then next week the trial fails and you sell, does that make you a trader?

My point is, its just not that black and white and anybody who looks after their own portfolio small or large, diverse or not, and actively manages it, is probably not quite the "LTH" they label themselves with.

(If they were I fail to think of a single reason why they would come to these BB's )

ripley you can make very poor taste "jokes" about my dead mother, but your never ending insulting posts towards me on every idea I have end up being your view some weeks and months later.

Your latest dates back to December when I posed the idea that perhaps the market had priced in the science works and there were other reasons for a stagnating SP. Such as the ever extending timelines for the trial were causing concern about the cash flow and how long the cash on hand might last without more up-to-date info.

At least we should get that this month.

ripley: "....but the market wants to see the money."

omg.... where did that insight come from?

yes, i noticed that too LW.

A close above 6.6p would be positive and a close above 7p V. positive!

Hi D, when you said earlier ".... I can't detach myself from the company." thats very normal and usual.

I broke the link when I was day trading just one product. (10 year bond futures). I might trade up to 6 or 7 times a day and I could short as well as go long. I over traded like crazy (rookie error) but quite soon the product itself was irrelevant, it was just moving numbers so I became detached from the instrumwent itself.

Thats one of the "risks" of these BB's. As they are all to some degree or other just echo chambers, it is very easy to get caught up in the positive-only outcome and as a result it makes the selling much harder as you always think more is to come and ignore what is right in front of your eyes.

I know I take some stick on the AVCT BB, but if you had never heard of the company and someone told you about it now, with your experience of say SNG and AGL as bio-techs with great promise but have failed to deliver SP gains, then you might look at its actual history and think this is just another company that misses deadlines and fails to deliver in spier of what seems, great tech.

However we know what we know and it therefore can be hard to be dispassionate, but that is ultimately Fear and Greed driving the "rational" thinking process out the window.

So its hard, very hard, but the first step is to bet so small the result is irrelevant and that way you can stick to "the plan" to see if it does in fact yield results.

So, pick a trade with a stop and a target price and don't sell until the stop or target price is triggered, however long it takes. Just make sure these prices have a rationale behind them.

Verti, the market values AVCT at £372m. Thats some stick of gum.

The market is more risk averse than most if not all here.

They would rather pay a higher price knowing that the risk has been diminished.

They are not as greedy or as as trusting as most here.

Their history is a company that has missed all timelines and failed to commercialise its tech thus far.

They do not know what profit is likely to be made per treatment, what treatments will be offered first and when that will be. Right now they don't know if there is enough cash to get to the end of the trial. If there isn't, they don't how much the shortfall will be and for how long. They don't know AVCT's plan to commercialise the tech.

Maybe there will be shortcuts to the overall length of the trial but right now we are looking late Q4 or Q1 to start 1b (according to AS who said that there would 2 months after 1a finished to collate the data before starting 1b.) That had an expected 12 months to prove efficacy. As I say maybe hurdles can be cleared sooner rather than later but historically AVCT tend to take longer, not shorter timelines than they predict.

Who knows, all I am trying to do is offer up a rational explanation of why given the good news, that the market, until it has more clarity on the actual money side of the business(which tends to be quite important when valuing a company), will let small Pi's buy and sell and move the price about within those (relatively) narrow parameters of 111-185p.

Sorry, Should have said at the top:

"Knowing where to get in is the first part of the trade. The second part is knowing where to get out."

perhaps its not about the science at this stage?

Perhaps the thick as mince market has accepted its safe and works but is waiting to see how AVCt want to get it to market as the option they choose could have a big effect on the SP in the short term?

Otherwise if you go with the thick as mince idea then it will never move above this price as the market will never realise how good it is. Unless of course you believe the market will stop being as thick as mince but in that case you will have to explain how that will come about then, as it is so stupid now. Clearly it won't be due to interviews, RNS's or data,

Perhaps the TU later this month will shed more light for the thick as mince market to absorb. You know, cash on hand, how LD are doing, cash burn, milestones, potential plan to monitise the tech and by when.

Hi again D,

Know where to get is the first part of the trade. The second part is knowing where to get out.

You can work that to what suits you but a couple of example might be a fixed profit rise, say 10% or waiting for a particualr SP to be reached.

If you decide on a SP value as to when to sell then there should be a logic as to why you think it will get there as opposed to it being just an arbitary number.

This is important as using TA, there will be trades that don't work out so its important to max the profits and minimise the losses.

The inexperienced or poor trader will take profit too early and allow losses to run to far.

Typically, but as I say not universally, if a support level is seen as an entry point then a fall below that level should trigger a stop for a small loss. Before entering the trade an exit price to the the next resistance point would be a logical target.

The risk reward ration should always be AT LEAST 3-1.

(EG you buy at 100p with a stop loss at 95p and a target of 115p, (risk 5p,gain 15p therefore 3-1) But these figures should be based on what has happened previously and not just plucked from the air.

Money management is critical if using TA which is why you never bet with more than you can comfortably afford to lose so that whatever decision you feel you have to make you are neither concerned about the loss or that the gain will make you greedy for more.

Quite right Tim, because I have been so wrong for so long now.....

Hi D, I use the rsi based on the time frame I am using.

On stocks I expect to hold for several days and weeks and sometimes months, I use longer timed charts

As a result these longer time frames means on HL I use the 12 month charts and for a bit more clarity the 3 month charts (same info, but sometimes easier to read on the 3 month), with the RSI overlaid. Easy to see support and resistance levels.

The only time I use the week or day chart is if I am looking to get back in on a retrace and don't want to wait for a closing price .

An example would be say, ABDX falls to 6.25p intra day and I buy there because it may then move during the day and finish back at 7p or higher at close.

My indicator of a successful trade is when I buy it does not fall from there, even if it then goes back up.

So I am not looking or expecting to get in at the very bottom, but when I do buy , my trade never goes into negative territory at all.

So far AVCT at 111p for instance is a good example as was my purchase at 133p last week.

Well my trades are doing fine thanks so I will stick to thinking for myself and acting on it.

why is it negative Watching?

Why is posting a possible explanation of why the SP is where it is , negative?

I mentioned this weeks ago and expressed my opinion that the SP would probably move up and fluctuate between 160p and 185p until more definitive or surprising news.

"What the fleck is wrong with the thick as mince market."

Perhaps its not about the science any more?

Perhaps the market has already worked out it works and wants more detail about the next steps?

Morning D.

Right now abigdon has got a double top in place at 7p. However its a log way from being triggered but some may have take profit as it reached a recent high. the importnat buying signal will be if/when it brakes 7p

You might have noticed the RSI was 80 at 7p. If it continues to fall and you are bullish than a target of 6.25p would be the obvious place to buy some on the gamble it will rise, but the "safer" option is to wait and see if 7p is broken.

I tend to use the half and half strategy if I think a share is retracing rather than falling.

So I would add half my new funds at 6.25p and the other half at 7p plus. But thats me and not meant to be advice.

All the best

BV: "So up, down or much the same. No need to say TA."

except your view of what buyers and sellers will do (in some detail) over the coming days is EXACTLY TA.

Charts are just graphical representations of buying and selling with predictability being based on crowd psychology, which is what you have said in your post.

The only difference is using TA you would wait to see how it unfolds rather than look that far ahead.

Thanks Prof