Member Info for wyndrum

I laid out my reasoning as to why I thought the SP was under pressure.

You may think the market does not look forward further than 2 weeks but my experience suggests they do.

You tell me when P1a finishes. Then tell me when P1b will start. Then tell me when P1b will finish?

None of us know incl AVCT. What is the history? Delay on estimated timelines.

Will this affect cash in the bank if it takes another 18-24 months? Yes.

If it is sooner will the SP almost certainly rise. Its a gamble or risk of which historical precedent is not on the company's side.

(Another alternative is that maybe AVCT are looking to make an acquisition but I think this less likely, but still possible.)

If the tech is as good as it promises to be this will all come out in the wash. In the meantime some try to get in as low a price as they think they can get to maximise profits.

Some here got in at a very low price and are still sitting on good profits. This colours their reaction to the falls.

The majority are probably sitting on a loss, some may have sizeable losses. This too colours their reaction.

I try not to be concerned one way or the other but simply look to see if there is an opportunity to top up or indeed reduce and get the money working elsewhere. My experience suggests its helpful not to care about the company.

Don't be so silly Watching.

The SP is under pressure.

If you actually look at the pre-lims figures they don't make great reading.

6% interest over 5 years is 30%, add 30% to the loan and divide that by the 20 repayments.

Then add the cash burn.

I don't see money as an immediate issue but it never goes away with loss making companies. Its always a race to get to profitability before the current funds run out.

Then add in the unknown timescales to get the results of efficacy and hey presto, we are back to uncertainty

Clearly the market is happy to pay a higher price as and when, rather than risk getting caught for another cash raise.

Anyway thats how I see it.

Looks like the support is being tested.

interesting day coming up I think.

I Hope so RAH, because you have been banging this drum for some time now that the market is as thick as mince and as the SP has actually fallen it suggests someone is looking at the stock and decided to sell.

It is not FUD to try and figure out to see if there is an alternative to the SP weakness other than market ignorance. (It did not stop the SP reaching 280p when it thought the LFT would fly. So its difficult to assume its market ignorance that is holding this back right now.)

That leaves uncertainty. Both in time and commercialisation of the tech.

if the above is the reason then I don't think the end of P1a will be the trigger as that is already doing very well and is also well documented.

Certainly the time to the end of P1a is an issue as we have had range from the end of last week through to the end of June and these guesses are on the basis of no delays. I have said (but only based on past missed time lines)that a Q4 or early Q1 start is perfectly possible. but that seems to be outlier

An official start to P1b should prove to be a stimulus but it will be the first technical update that will be the potential to light a fire and that is based on it living up to the hype.

I think we have to recognise that AS does not have a lot of credibility in the bank presently.

The " big" scripted interviews are with Paul Hill. (Not exactly a giant of the industry?)

The rampy tweets no longer seem to move the dial in any discernable way now.

Its all about efficacy results in patients now and a believable timeline to profit. (and we know that because the SP is 112p and its near the end of its safety trial.)

The longer it goes on with the bond being paid back every quarter coupled with the cash burn and overlaid with an unknown trusted timescale holds the SP back.

£12-14m loan plus cash burn. It doesn't last as long as you all think.

So yes, patience, what else can you do ,hold or sell.

I just think blaming the market is too convenient after so many science days, interviews, RNS's and the like over the last 18 months.

Lets hope for a better week

yes I think ABDX looks good over the next 6 months to see if their materially better 2nd half comes off.

Short of adding more funds I am happy where money is at the moment and might actually have to sit on my hands for a while.

Hopefully a bit more predictable movement from next week on my portfolio as it feels the market has pretty much been on holiday for the last 2 weeks and the moves have been just small time players.

Harl is creeping up and could be described as at an "inflection point"... (where have I heard that before?) So next week should be interesting. (well, to be less opaque I think there will be positive SP movement)

Anyway, hope you have a nice weekend :0))

Thanks everyone.

hope you are still in this D, big jump over the last few sessions.

(Be a riot if AVCT did put a bid in!)

you win!

Ha! ok Neut, what if you have got a stash of books you have already written (affirmers) but can't find a publisher who will help out or a book shop to sell them?

fair point, but... how long will it be before the TX is commercialised?

But ignoring that, why does AS want to go down the DX route? I think his reasoning is that although its a congested market its also fragmented, so he looks to be thinking along the lines of a one stop shop solution to DX presumably to be in a position to commercialise affimers asap?

I thought that too until I noticed in the ABDX recent result statement, that they see the LFT market worth nearly £23b by 2027, which seemed to make our £1.5b Dox market fairly small....

Might be a bit more money in DX than we give it credit for? Particularly if affirmers really are as good as advertised?

Generally the concensus here was that buying LD was a great and smart move as it helps with cash flow and generates a profit. What if ABDX are the same. (They see themselves as being profitable 2024 which i accept is a risk of not happening) but if, if AVCT are going M&A its going to cost a FORTUNE what ever they do.

The fact they want to, suggests they do have a plan and can see the value in it.

Like I say, I don't know, but I can see quite a lot of logic in it if this is the route they want to go down.

Hi Neut,

The thing is its dirt cheap. Where are you going to buy all the infrastructure and staff, machinery, contacts (and customers) for say £15m?

(They do have revenue and therefore are selling stuff, and in fact it does not seem that far removed from LD in its profile of sales to purchase price.

Borrow rather than share raise. ...Wait till its profitable and the money will at least double if not more to get it

ABDX was floated at 100p per share, which now seems crazy and it was on the back of covid but.... it does indicate what a profitable company in this field might cost?

Anyway, it was just a thought.

I actually have no idea what you are talking about.

When you say Left did you mean LFT?

LFT stands for lateral flow test, which covers many tests.

If you are saying I was skeptical about the AVCT Covid LFT being a commercial success then that is true and I was correct.

As AVCT are highlighting an M&A route to developing their DX business I floated my thoughts about the possibility of ABDX being a potential fit. (Which BV also saw some possible advantage to as well.) valued at £10m it seemed to me affordable particularly as they are reporting a materially improved 2nd half of the year and having some attributes to their business model that could help AVCT develop quickly.

Please by all means explain the odd and delusional aspect of it.

(Or, alternatively, go and see a psychiatrist, and get some help with the obsession you have with your perceived view of me.)

and yet BV, you were happy to respond to my original post "I wonder...." where you seem to agree with me that ABDX may have potential as a fit for AVCT.

Make your mind up.

well done Watching, nice response.

Always helps to air the reasons and thoughts behind posts.

BV, we can only discuss the SP if it is going up?

Try this for an idea, People buy stocks expecting and hoping they will rise. When they do go up the "plan" is working and there is little to say. When the plan seems not to work and the SP is falling it is not unreasonable for then to want to discuss potential reasons?

(If your car is working you don't keep taking it to the garage every 2 minutes to discuss with the mechanic what should be done.)

watching? where is your evidence that anyone is shorting AVCT?

Why would anyone short AVCT? (What reasons would anyone have, given where they are currently, well funded, closing in on the end of a trial with ground breaking tech etc?

You don't open a short on a whim or for a laugh.

I don't know why there is what seems to be am inherent weakness in the SP. I have been perplexed as to why the SP struggles so much. I think it only leaves the last cash raise. I think this constant immediate cashing in of the bonds is the most likely culprit and becomes somewhat self fulfilling as why bother to buy when it is only going get knocked back in a few weeks time.

But at the same time why do that (sell the bonds) when greater SP appreciation would surely pay a better return for the bond holder?

(The most unlikely reason is the market not understanding what AVCT is doing. That in my view is simply the laziest excuse I had ever heard and did not make any sense.)

I don't there is any "legal" position?

Reporters cover trials all the time with their reviews at the end of the day. It maybe during the trial itself you can't beam out pictures, but i don't think talking about the day after it has concluded is against the rules? Yo are not on the jury, and the public are allowed to attend etc etc,

Hi Chris, so what went on? whats your impression of what was said?

why respond?

Either have a conversation about the SP, or ignore it, but why go back with an insult? This is exactly what you profess to dislike, threads that you believe disrupt the BB?

If you genuinely want his pov then don't end it with "...you silly twat?"