Member Info for wyndrum

Perfect! ( now all that has to happen is for the SP to go up!)

Looks a decent entry point having retraced very close to the 8.25p support. Picked up a few. GLA

Gje, both. I had close ties to some Bank of America traders and I have personally used this method for just about 20 years

But bear in mind Its a mechanical system gje.

If a car engine breaks down and you know how to fix it you don't need to take it to another mechanic to tell you what you already know.

The whole point of TA is based on Crowd psychology and money management. The "rules" are fairly straight forward.

Experience teaches you patience and to eventually break the link of what you want to happen against what is happening and not to get to caught up in the result (good or bad)

The hardest bit is know where to place your stops (and experience helps there too) other than that it, it pretty much runs itself.

All stocks because of their size can be manipulated by big houses but again, its not as easy as it sounds to do.

All TA is is a form of sentiment trading, the trend is your friend etc. Its going with the flow rather than sometimes being stubbornly against it.

Its shorter term than LTB&H and therefore the 2 views have tension within them.

Each to his own.

If its just the science why has the SP fallen?

Oh and whats your latest guess for DE5 to complete? it was 2 weeks ago and then moved discretely to the end of last week as I recall

Others have lots of other dates too, but I guess this is all based on the same science and is just another glowing testament to the great research that goes on here that allows so many different opinions and conclusion on the same data to be aired.

Which to be fair is a good read and often very interesting. I just haven't been able to profit from that approach yet.

Gje, I would take issue with a couple of your points.

My experience is traders don't "specialise" in shorting. If you have the option to go long or to go short, you just react to what the chart is telling is most likely to happen and act accordingly.

Any traders that tries to "force" the SP to move in any direction is gambling that this will cause a chain reaction but more professional or better traders, don't do this. They wait for the market to decide and then they react. (This is why i think so many lose money using TA, they guess what's coming next, rather than waiting (which is normally caused by greed and therefore emotion etc etc which TA tris to eliminate by being such a mechanical system).

What I think does happen is that when it gets to a key level MM's may force the SP down t to see if there is an underlying strength or weakness to the stock. So for example, MM's put in a 109 price and if the shares are snapped up they quickly move it back up. If on the other hand it causes a flurry of sells then they can see that maybe its not so robust and alter their books accordingly. (And vice versa of course if the SP is up to a high resistance level), which is why you get "false breakouts"

The other is I don't know how easy it is short aim stocks so as to be influential on the SP.

The thing is Shorting is a higher risk then going long as there is no limit to your loss (and time is also against you), if the SP moves the other way.

Plus the spread on this stock even when its tight makes day trading I think unprofitable. Longer term swing trading maybe, but as I say the risk of shorting a stock like this is very, very high indeed and again its not likely to attract a seasoned trader unless they feel very sure that a move down is coming. You certainly don't do it on whim and you can't expect to influence the market either.

If a big house puts an official short in then clearly they see something and that's different, but if no shorts are being recorded then to blame a falling SP on "shorters" always seems a bit too convenient for me.

Gallmat I am assuming you have an open mind:

Most people buy in front of news. They have expectations of what is likely and they want to get in before the news breaks so as to make more money.

Thats why there is the adage of "Buy on the rumour, sell on the news".

This goes to the heart of it because the SP is just a graphical representation of the buys and sells and can be used as an indicator of what people are doing and its people who buy and sell and therefore, move the SP.

Therefore as crowds are reasonably predictable, the SP patterns often repeat themselves.

For the most part Share Prices stay within a range and therefore don't cause TA users to trade when that is the case.

Right now over the last few days the SP has been testing a level at around 111p where historically when it has fallen to that level, it encourages people to buy because they believe it to be good value and it rises.

TA therefore would say (irrelevant to the company) that the risk of buying at the current level indicates more chance of a rise than a fall. However because no one knows what will actually happen, should the SP fall below 111p then the TA view would be to sell and take a small loss as what has happened is that historically it has always gone up from that price and now, what it means is that there are no buyers left at 111p so any sellers now have to lower their price to get out.

If there are no buyers then the SP will have to fall until they are found.

So for the most part trading is pretty dull and only gets interesting at key levels.

If surprising news is released it will move the SP (either up or down depending on the message) and new levels will be introduced and new patterns emerge. The key word being surprising, which no system accounts for.

TA is much more fluid and often changes daily on its view.

Its not fool proof, but then no system is. I find once money is involved it can all get a bit murky and therefore rely more on immediate SP movements than taking a longer term view to understand what might be going on.

Each to his own

DTW,

I completely understand your approach. So given you only buy well researched companies has any ever failed your expectation?

I am not trying to be funny or sarcastic, but when the LFT was going full steam did you think it would be a success based on your research?

We are both trying to max our returns. I use the SP history to inform me of where it is likely to go. You use fundamental research.

The problem I have with that method is that you never know currently whats going on. All the info is out of date as soon as you get it. You extrapolate and make assumptions on this out of date info to take a view on what you think is most likely going on.

I do too, but use the SP movements as amore up-to-date barometer of what the market thinks of the company. I have more faith in this approach because I assume there are many more people out there that know more than I do and the SP usually tells the story.

Neither approach is full proof

RAH,

Let me ask it this way round:

Why do you thinks its not about the money?

Cash ok to back end of 2024. Thats roughly between, 15-18 months. Typically a cash raise will take place at least 6 months before the money runs out so a cash raise could be 9-12 months away.

There could be milestone payments, license deals or greater than expected LD revenue which would change the backdrop but the market will be going on whats known, not what if.

The cash raise of nearly 3 years ago was at 120p and the SP is below that now so it has been a poor decision given you could but today around 5% less than then

Will the trial be completed within 12 months? If it isn't then most likely a cash raise will be needed based on what is known today.

"This could typically be achieved with two reasonably powered Phase IIb/III trials" so there is an expectation or at least a reasonable chance that p1b might be extended into a second phase.

Its about time.

Its the one thing most here seem to have a blind spot about.

The effective return on your investment is linked to time. Its not much help to say your return will double if you don't know by when. particularly with inflation eating away at it too.

This is always about money not really about the company.

The company is the vehicle. The goal is the return. Thats why I (and others) don't care about the "company". They look at places where they think they will get the quickest and/or best return for the risk

This is less risky than it was but remains a risk whilst at the same time there is no clear timeline to commercialisation. Thats imo is the nub of it.

Capital preservation is normally the number 1 thing to consider when making an investment. The higher the risk the less you invest.

I accept that what I do is gambling (because I risk money without knowing the outcome), but I always make sure I can comfortably afford the worst outcome.

And who knows, maybe you are right and the market is as thick as mince but it seems (to me) a pretty arrogant statement to assume you know better the collective thousands of analyst's and II's as well as PI's.

"Another 100 words about me, me, me, me, me, ad infinitum."

which is nothing compared to the words you lot post about me.

Stop doing that I need not respond.

Strangy,

I do my very best not to personalise posts.

My ideas and thoughts are based on AVCT.

Mostly but not always the responses simply insult me with ulterior motives and the like, without ever addressing the actual post, which is about AVCT. Just as you continually do.

Ripley came back with fair points which i have acknowledged.

There is simply no need to be so wound up all the time with me.

You have invented a persona about me that is wholly in your head.

I have apologised you long ago for you getting the impression you have of me and that it was not my intention. You however will not let it go. That is entirely your problem and not mine.

I want the shares to go up. What's to say when they do so? Its all going to plan? Look how clever we all are?

you are simply an idiot PL, looking for agro all the time.

Constantly going after me as though it makes an iota of difference to the company or the SP.

I wonder what it is that motivates you to get so personally wound up on such a pointless and ineffectual path.

"The Bonds have a maturity of five years, and are repayable in 20 quarterly amortisation repayments, of principal and interest over the five-year term, in either cash or in new ordinary shares at the Group's option."

So its either cash or dilution.

And I am happy to be wrong about cash burn being the cause. I am simply trying to figure out why there is a continuing weakness in the SP. (It was just all the talk of £m of quarterly repayments here that led me to think cash was being used rather than a sale of stock.)

It does look as though the shares issued are then sold which means the bond holder wants their money and not to hold shares. So the cost is pushed over to the shares holders.

maybe its just the dilution as more shares get issued that has caused the reduction?

That would also go towards lack of buying presently if there is more devaluation to go before tangible results?

Oh, its a popularity contest.....

And there was me thinking we could discus, on an investment BB, the surprising weakness in the SP. My bad.

Fwiw MrI, the way charts work is that it is just an odds based forecast.

The SP (in any stock) always has 2 options, either up or down, charts just try and give what direction is most likely, rather than be absolute in the "forecast" which is why stops and money management are just as important as any other aspect of the methodology.

So as I say right now its actually in No Mans Land within the trading range I outlined.

Many traders would wait for the confirmation of the break out of the 2.38p level before committing funds

MrI.

IMO, L2 is too short term and does not normally give any helpful insight as to future moves.

From a chart pov it is in trading range between 1.93 and 2.38.

Within that range a double bottom formed at the low of 1.93 and suggests if it completes successfully, a minimum target of 2.27. Personally I am not overly fussed about Double tops and bottoms as they have a mixed success rate or at least a rate not good enough to trade on.

The 1.93 low however was a support that has been tested and re-enforced suggesting there is a reversal in hand.

The recent spike to 2.15p and the subsequent fall look more to me a pull back or retrace, rather than anything else.

Anyone buying now could expect an attack on the recent high of 2.38 and should that level (or resistance) be broken then 3.92p would be the next target.

So, the summary is, if you buy now have a stop around 1.9 with 2.38p as a first target with 3.92 as the second target.

(just my opinion dyor etc.)

Ok, fair enough but the annual money (£12m ish) going out on top of cash burn has a material affect over the next 12-18 months on funds which many seemed to gloss over with the pre-lims when looking at cash flow.

Unfortunately Watching, your continued snipes only show you to be somewhat juvenile and small minded.

Not much help to the "scared " investors you profess to champion.,

Sorry to disillusion you Stevie, but its not a bedsit.

And the "sadness" you feel is completely in your head as opposed to any reality.

But you carry on attacking me as opposed to any other reasons you can think of for the SP weakness.

Its fun and its easier I spose, but not much help on an investment BB.

We have had a "drop" since May 2021

I tend to comment on market moves, not pre-empt them.

"The problem is you spread doom. With your belief which most it totally incorrect"

So what has happened to the SP then?

When the market thinks its coming to an end the price rises. Then when the trial is extended, it falls.

The market does not know when the trial will complete. They expected January and then it was put back and then it was confirmed that it had not restarted until April causing a 4 month delay on top of a delay

Anyone "scared" by my posts should not be investing.

To be scared means they have over invested or not thought through other alternatives.

If this is so slam dunk why is the market so unethusiastic currently? Esp when so many lesser companies are being bought out?

Don't blame me for stating fairly obvious scenario's.

Who knows what the actual reason is, but being aware of different outcomes should be helpful not dismissed simply bacause of your bias.

What if you get these "scared" investors to ignore me and the SP goes lower? want to take responsibility for that?