Member Info for wyndrum

"The deal will come out of nowhere because Avacta is actually very good at keeping a lid on these things."

Any example of a commercial deal that AVCT have ever done to support that statement?

WAG, they can only see the stops that are placed.

The majority of people who use stops do not place them in the market for the MM's to see as it is just asking for the SP to be moved down to trigger them before popping up again.

Strangy.... I don't care what you think... Ok?

By all means keep posting your same opinion of me ad nauseam, but not only don't I care, but nor does anyone else as the ones that do, have done the sensible thing and filtered me.

I have to say its you that comes across as odd with this childish fixation that some how your constant posts about me are in any way helpful given its just your opinion. But I suppose there is a clue in your post name.

Get help or get lost.

Ah PL, there you go again, as you have no idea what you are talking about so obviously you always come to the wrong conclusion.

Oh well,

Yes, but I am not in "deep".....also I have a stop loss set which I will trigger so as to contain any loss.

It would seem many here seem to worry more about my trades than I do......

"is that a cut and paste of a wyndrum post or do you read the same play book? people not agreeing doesn’t make them thick."

No, but your views on the LFT back in the day, a Nasdaq listing being about to be announced and you missing your revised dates of when this DE was to be completed does not make you thick, but does call into question your analytical ability. And given you rarely finish a post without the obligatory insult does make you very boorish.

DTW, Given you state "The most stupid thing you've mooted WYN and the bar is incredibly low"

Lets go through your demolition of my mooted idea.

1. AVCT management team are fundamentally research scientists and have no discernible expertise or experience of manufacturing.

In that case that applies to running a PLC of any description yet somehow, here they are. (Plus see my answer to no. 2.)

2. Manufacturing requires, cash, logistics & procurement expertise, plus an understanding of recruiting/retaining and managing large teams of typically low paid staff.

Hmmm.. would buying ABDX (or any other manufacturing business) negate every one of those barriers?

3. Launch almost certainly have several well established manufacturing partners in low cost countries with plenty of capacity to ramp up production for any new affimer based diagnostic products.

Ok, well, so you say, maybe. But how do you know that? What if they are up against capacity constraints already?

4. Any margin gains from AVCT owning their own manufacturing vs sub contracting would be minor if at all.

So bascially there is no money in manufacturing tests. In which case how are we going to sell these test if no one can make any money producing them? (Oh, there is money in it, just AVCT could not make any. Although if it was an Affimer test say, could they not charge what they like?)

5. Last time I looked the AVCT management team were not certifiably insane.

Well, they have already started down the DX M&A route at a time when they did not need to, so by your logic are already proven to be insane.

Ice, Given then what LD do, what or where does AVCT go to M&A then? Just another type of LD I suppose? It would have to be different products that were already being sold and would not allow LD to sell them on their behalf so, it would be case of margins or something else to unlock value and one saving would be through manufacture.

If AVCT bought LD to launch affimers on an unsuspecting world what else do you think they need?

Anyway, I will be surprised if the DX business given the scale of vison AVCT have stated for this part of the business does not at some stage incorporate manufacture.. It seems a no brainer to me

No, Oamot, I was speculating around if they went down the M&A route could ABDX be a candidate. Then there was a spike in the ABDX SP so I looked more closely at ABDX given their past relationship together and saw the POSSIBILITY of a fit.

Ok? so right now I think cash burn is keeping the SP subued. Maybe.... just maybe... they (the mkt) think that an M&A target has come onto their (avct) radar?

Take over or mergers are closely guarded secrets until revealed so whatever happens, whenever, involving whatever company, we only know after the event.

Ok so no one here see ABDX as a candidate ...whoopie do. thanks for all the reasoned response.

The main one being only AVCT said they don't want to get involved in manufacturing, but at the same time want an integrated DX business and yet want to leave out a crucial part of that in-house integration.

Still that obvious (to me) blatant contradiction has the merit of throwing the market off the scent.

Anyway. I have no idea as always about what might come to pass but equally nor does anyone else here.

Chow

I'm not ignoring it OAMOT, I simply proved that there is more to ABDX than manufacturing and seems to me to have a similar profile to LD if you ignore the manufacturing side.

If manufacture is such a poor business then they could simply shut it down? However if the DX side took off then manufacturing would become an increasingly important part of the business to be under their direct control, I would have thought.

Its not about today but maybe 5 years plus down the track. Who knows where affimirs will be then? there could be another pandemic of some sort? (Apparently its inevitable).

I am not saying it will happen just food for thought. I don't why you all get so het up about...well everything.

AVCT went to ABDX to TT and ultimately with a view to manufacture the LFT, so they will need a company like ABDX in the future. So it only comes down to whether or not its worth having in-house.

I am constantly amazed at what AVCT communicate and what actually comes to pass, that you are still so trusting on what AVCT ever say.

Well, if both PL and ripley think its anon-starter then its almost certainly already a done deal...

Its not a rumour! it was just an observation that as AVCT have said they want to go down the M&A route in the undisclosed future, and as a for instance, right now ABDX is cheap.

Its not a cross ramp its simply thinking who might they buy? what are they going to get for a couple of £m that makes any difference? LD was £24m for a couple of mil profit. M&A will be "expensive" so value is going to almost certainly manifest itself on small mkt cap companies that are either loss making or barely in profit, otherwise the premium will be high.

But its just an opinion.

Ripley what does fully funded mean?

Its time dependent and cash burn dependent. Two variables that chop and change.

The trial was meant to finish in the summer of this year. It might not even finish phase one by that time.

To trust any statement that is so easily over-ridden by events is very naive. AVCT history is littered with unscheduled delays and cash raises.

Accept thats not all ABDX do. ....

"Abingdon Health plc is a lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO). The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes diagnostic devices and provides consultancy services to businesses in the diagnostics sector. Its segments include Product sales, Contract manufacturing, and Contract development. Its customer base across industry sectors includes clinical, animal health, plant health, and environmental testing. Its CDMO division offers product development, regulatory support, technology transfer and manufacturing services for customers looking to develop new assays or transfer existing laboratory-based assays to a lateral flow format. Its Abingdon Simply Test range of self-tests is an e-commerce platform that offers a range of self-tests to enable consumers to manage their own health and wellbeing."

Now, given what ever margins there are on manufacturing, LD/AVCT would still have to pay a premium to outsource manufacture their own tests, so ABDX is not the worst fit in the world imo in its entirity.

I think it is different argument if it was JUST manufacturing. But it isn't.

Whether or not it is being considered I have no idea.

As usual Tim, you are one of the more myopic, single minded posters here that seems incapable of thinking outside the box and revert to your boring insults to shutdown conversation's you either don't like or have no interest in.

Personally I think this constant view of some here that every SP fall is a direct result of TW and/or others effectively manipulating the SP has no support to it.

It assumes that they can move the market. Why does every influencer have to be only negative? why can't the SP be manipulated up?

Well, when it does spike up and no official news follows, it falls back.

Ergo if it falls why aren't the shares snapped up at the false low price causing the SP to rise?

It is I think a straight forward case of uncertainty in the market coupled with a seemingly indifference on the part of the BoD of AVCT to care one jot about shareholders interests.

If/when this all comes good they can say "so what", but short of a buyout this issue won't go away when the SP is 500p or 10000p or whatever. The market will still want to know whats next to justify the SP, whatever value it is.

It seems to me a mindset at AVCT that needs changing more then anything else.

I think you are right Neut.

Its not clear as to what AVCt timelines are.

They have given a sense of direction to the market but left the actual "as & when" up in the air.

I don't understand after all this time wht AVCT as a company still does stuff like this.

All listed companies have a requirement to the general market and its shareholders to offer clarity and to not be ambiguous as its in everyone interests.

I am still not convinced the current BoD is of sufficient calibre to this side of the business.

I just hope a buyout comes sooner rather than later. (My "hope" i think, at least has some logic that it is a more likely outcome than not.)

My reading Neut, was that the bond was to buy LD and then in the fullness of time have an M&A strategy to develop DX. I spose we are all assuming its a vehicle for their affimer products to easily get to market? (Of course part of M&A is the M, ie a merger.....)

It could equally be that AVCt know when the next milestone payments will arrive and for how much and that will relieve some pressure?

As you correctly note, not having the inside track makes everything we say conjecture.

But in a vacuume the market will always take the more doubtful view of a company's prospects until convinced otherwise.

MS, the company has a market cap of approx £300m. If they borrow 50m over 4 years and its is all financed in shares then its somewhere between 15-20% dilution.

As has been pointed out part of that raise was to buy a DX profit generating company so the Asset value of the company has increased and whilst it might not be an complete quid pro quo, if the DG does improve its revenue/profitability then its value will rise.

So not completely cost neutral but certainly not just a straight line dilution.

Ultimately, my view (which is not completely shared here....) is that the general market is uncertain as to when the trial will finish and therefore any timeline to commercialisation. It was hoped the recent TU might give some illumination on these points but did not.

There had also been some talk (apparently)between large shareholders and AVCT about better comms. So far we wait for that to happen. Hopefully when this DE completes there will be an opportunity for AVCT to be able to publicly raise the roof on the size of the Dox now being administered.

Tell your Dad, "Hi" from me would you?

MS, I have just seen your definition of a death spiral.

If its accurate then the term is somewhat emotionally charged and does not apply to AVCT inasmuch as it will be the death of the company.

It is simply at worse, a drag on the SP, but if (there is always an if), the trial continues its current trajectory of good results, then within the next 6-12 months the SP should be substantially higher than it is now. There is always the chance that it could be sooner as AVCT has a number of companies interested in other parts of the business tech and pmake milestone payments to continue their involvement.

It would only take one or two such payments to be announced to help focus the general market as to what is happening here and potentially transform the financial outlook.

So as I said before, there is a risk and there is a potential reward. It is up to you if you think some risk of your capital is worth that potential reward.