Member Info for wyndrum

I guess MS, you have to make your own decision. (fwiw unless you personally know Truant, then I am not sure why you would give his view any particular credence?)

Any consistent loss making stock puts itself in the high risk category but AVCt have only recently raised around £50m to tide themselves over so there are no imminent likely cash calls on the horizon.

Therefore the next question is: how is the actual trial going? And it really is nothing but positive news. (I am assuming you have read the recent RNS's and results of the Science day held a couple of months ago. There are also Interviews with Paul Hill with the CEO Alistair Smith, and while they are likely scripted, nevertheless, it confirms the RNS data.

As I say the only wrinkle has been the delays, or extensions, in the original time forecast. (The SP tends to climb as the expected date of ending looms, and then falls back when progress in the trial is delayed. However it now does seem that there will be no further Dose escalations required once this latest batch are completed.

In mitigation this is absolutely typical in trials such as these and also in this example, the latest one is on the back of an unexpected request to continue it for another 6 months or so to allow the next part of the trial to be more effective as opposed to ambiguous or disappointing data.

Given what is being attempted here it is understandable as this could be one of the greatest break throughs in recent times in the treatment of some cancers and therefore to get the dosage right/more effective is clearly worth doing even if it does have a relatively short time delay before overall completion.

All this is just my opinion of what might be affecting the SP disconnect but your own research should confirm broadly what I have as best I can, objectively highlighted.

Actually MS, the chart does not say its off to the dogs at all. (it is merely in a trading range)

There is a reasonable argument to say this is an excellent buy in price as it is on a support line (within the TR) which has been tested a few times and endured so far.

It is a source of confoundment to many here as to why there is such a gap between the Current SP and the potential.

It can only be guesswork but the current first part of the trial has been a victim of its own success as it was due to finish in Dec2022 but the people running/overseeing it, wanted to extend it as it seems to be working even better than expected, and wanted even more data to help the 2nd part of the trial be even more effective, but the downside is that delay may have implications for the current cash lasting through to the end of the 2nd phase of the trial. (This is a source of contention here and there is an argument that there is enough money to get through to the end).

So it might be due to the uncertainty of when the overall trial will finish that is temporarily holding back the SP.

There is nothing but positive news from RNS's and Interviews, so there is no hint that the technology is not performing to the company's very high expectation.

Nothing is guaranteed of course but in terms of reward this has huge potential to multi bag from here which should put any risk into context.

DYOR etc etc

Ah... RAH, so I'm not filtered after all...

(I thought your most recent post where you highlighted your view and assumptions up front was a better balanced post. I am sure that is a great comfort to you.)

Its never been FUD Joe, just based on the history of the company's performance thus far I have taken a more dispassionate view then some.

I would argue it could be termed realistic but accept that many here mistakenly (imo) view it as pessimistic.

Anyway, like I said ..who cares

Really I do,

but It has bounced off the support so many times now I bought more this afternoon.

Now I mention this only for a sense of balance.

I might take a more pessimistic view on timelines than most here but I do think this will fly

HH, I agree, I deffo don't understand the intricacies of small bio-techs!

My personal experience of them is a very small sample but every single one of them has followed the same trajectory in broad brush terms.

But its the only data set i have that I can verify and trust.

Fingers crossed this stock is not only successful, but achieves it quickly.

GL

The positive case you have outlined is fair I think and it ends up (as do all stock picking decisions), on what you think most likely to occur coupled with the individual's risk appetite.

The price is only low risk if it goes up. If the trial fails to deliver and the SP goes down then it won't be. Now, whilst I accept the trite nature of that remark I am only highlighting that we won't know until it happens. We simply don't know and the info we ever get from any company is at best exaggerated to the upside.

(We never know the true nature of what is actually happening and over the years I tend to halve any good news coming out and quadruple any bad news that is officially recognised. But thats just me, I am fairly risk-averse, its also why I tend to take a shorter term view rather than longer because its harder to be accurate over a longer term than shorter)

MrI, putting on a more FA hat rather than just SP moves and charts etc, I would suggest the market is aware that small bio-techs are very risky propositions and therefore are always wary of them.

Any long running, loss making enterprise is a big red flag for the market, as its always a race to profitability and if the money runs out first then at best its a cash raise and likely asset dilution or worse, insolvency so you either lose some or everything.

Bio techs or small pharma co's that are engaged in developing products that include trials are notoriously over optimist when they forecast timelines which then brings the first point back into play.

Then, all through the development period there has to be an actual pathway to commercialisation. The earlier this is the more vague and uncertain it would likely be.

As for Hemo, so what? The trial hasn't even started let alone the results, let alone its value and when that value will be reliased.

On the other hand, theu could be bought out tomorrow...

Its a game....

As a self confessed trader... can I just say not all sellers are traders. It seems to be an oft-overlooked fact that us Traders have to buy the stock in the first place to even be in a position to sell.

I only mention this as it can be an easy (but imo lazy) jumped-to conclusion that every fall in a SP is somehow the reaction of Traders or Shorters or any other reason other than maybe a more general, overall, perception of value in the SP.

Just an observation.

My view is, the SP is what it is, on any given day/time and that it is beyond my knowledge or understanding.

(Fwiw all I try to do is identify trends of where it might most likely go)

MrI, simply has a very personal and limited observation, my first hand experience with bio techs is that delays are the norm and it never seems to go as originally forecasted.

This may very well be an exception but at the same time if my experiance is more generally accurate then that may account for the reticence of buyers to pay a premium presently?

Its just highlighting one poster, without any actual knowledge, making one assumption after an other to confirm his view by stating it as though was fact.

"Again, the Roadmap to Commercialisation is planned shortly (see Tom’s clip on Twitter). "

But not from AVCT just an opinion from someone who has been inaccurate in forecasts to date.

"As ever, just because Avacta is not shouting about a highly sensitive plan does not mean progress is not being made."

That is an assumption that a highly sensitive plan is in place

"Avacta is 12 working days from finishing C5, assuming 3 patients in the cohort."

Again, an assumption. Perhaps there have been complications in the patients?)

"The CEO believes the MTD will be found in C6."

What he said was it could go to DE7 but he THOUGHT that unlikely. I except this could be hair splitting but he did not see this further round of DE's in the first place.

"If so, we’re literally a few weeks from finding DLTs sufficient to stop the trial and move to P1b. I hope we go to C7. Despite the market being impatient."

If it goes to DE7 its more than a few week to P1b

"Once in P1b it’s a maximum of 60 days to see (clearly) how efficacious AVA6000 is."

Given there has been timeline extensions throughout, the certainty of 60 days seems speculative.

"For me, it’s a case of how good it is, not whether dox will kill cancer. It will."

I agree with this but that is a crucial part of the valuation will be the level of efficacy, at this stage we have to wait to see.

"Avacta is stuck in a cycle. FUD everywhere. Zero discussion of the science. Despite tons going on in the background."

FUD from where? from Twitter and BB's from people who are making guesses depending on their individual bias? And you think market reacts to that?

"One left-field RNS and it’s at ATHs in a heartbeat."

Yes, but by definition its an unforecasted surprise, so no one incl you can expect it. It has to be outside expectation.

"112p prices AVA6000 and preCISION at zero."

There may be other factors influencing the current SP other than just the science

"How, even in a poor market with lots of disinformation, can that be the case when Clovis’s FAP2286 sold for over $50m in bankruptcy (with milestone payments up to c.$700m)…"

What disinformation?

112p is devoid of all logic. Imho.

So try figuring out a scenario why it is given it has been low for some weeks now?

Ice,

There is no way as we all accept on the one hand that small bio-techs are high risk and at the same time "know" its going to be successful.

I don't mind (as I have said before) about discussing the science here, I just can't profit from it. I get the info from the RNS's not from the varied often diametric conclusions voiced here based on the same data. They can't all be right and so far none of them have.

(Are we going to have a DE after this one is finished and or one after that? When is this one going to finish? Will P1b start while this is still going? Will there be a 2 month gap between the end of P1a and the start of P1b?

None us know any of this (let alone the actual results) and we are only looking 1-12 months ahead. But if you say, yeah but within 5 years... etc etc.. Well thats handy because you are just hiding behind a timeframe to deflect from the actual lack of knowledge we have.

But each to his own as always, I am the same as most here, at some stage I think the odds are there will be substantial SP appreciation, all i do that seems to wind a few up is to get as many shares as possible prior to the potential re-rate.

Ice, you have to realise I can't win here. If I tell you about every time I trade I get told to shut up, no one cares.

One minute I am posting too much and when I don't post I am coming back using hindsight.

I can't contribute to the science discussions because I don't know anything about it. I can keep up with the general thrust but can't add anything.

But I also believe nor can anyone else as it is all guess work. Just because the science is discussed does not mean it is insightful or accurate as to what is actually occurring and that is a FACT given all the positive science talk over the last 3 years has coincided with a fall in the SP. What does that tell you?

It tells me that the posters here who talk about the science are of no help whatsoever in helping anyone else here make money. Think about that.

I wasn't "quick" to respond about my winnings as it was not me that brought it up, but the posts aimed at me are to denegrate my position and view and to try to be condecending as to the "few bob" I made. I thought the reality might be worth pointing out, that was all.

i have no problem with people disagreeing with it, as its different strokes for different folks, but its the tone that it is used as though somehow, holding a share for an undetermined amount of time is by definition a better way then trading more frequently. (And again just for the factual record, I don't trade AVCT perhaps as often as I am accused of. I have a wide portfolio that keeps me active, its not all about AVCT).

I don't know why so many of you here are so bothered about what you think I do and don't do. If you just stopped going on at me personally I would not respond.

My posts (when not rebutting the ever constant personal replies) concentrate on AVCT and its SP. As for my presence here being a direct result of being stuck in a bookies is one of the weirder things to be accused of, but hey ho.

(Why do think RAH posts so much? what high street shop is he stuck in?)

Ha ha riply good one... lovely flowery language to say the same thing!

What about using the example I bought at 103p and sold at 256p?

What about your example of selling everything for your life changing contracts and then buying back in 2 weeks later. ha ha. Brilliant.... but hey call it what you want.

As for all the other examples, you are simply using hindsight on what turned out to be successful companies.

We could just as easily pick on the banks prior to the financial crisis to prove the opposite, but then we would have to accept we don't know whats going to unfold.

You really are a prick but you do make me laugh. ha ha

Starngy, for somebody that admits you don't know much about me as a person, you seem very confident in your assessment of me? That is quite the contradiction don't you think?

I would also check your own posting history to realise perhaps you should filter me as you are clearly obsessed with my posts. Most of them are simply to insult me and offer no help or insight to or about AVCT whether it be about their science or financials.

By all means carry on making assumptions that you have no basis for, but I can tell you that i have indeed made a "few bob" (about £70k) on trading AVCT over the years and if you bought and have just held over the last 3 years then the likelyhood is you are sitting on losses.

My "talking nonsense" on the company is focussed on the investment side. I cannot affect anything they do as a company and I do not have the background or knowledge of what they are doing (and nor does anyone else here by the way, given the innovative tech they are using).

What I can do is to try and examine the financial side relative to the SP to see if and when a profitable opportuinity presents itself.

This moral handwringing about the difference between gambling and investing is just another example of a failure to realise what you are actually doing.

I presume the vast majority here will sell their holding one day and will rejoice at the profit they made. I am equally sure when the corks are being popped there will be back-slapping and talk of "it was a bit hairy at times.. remember the LFT....ha ha"

But sure, there is no gamble here involved. You knew exactly when the lowest point of the SP would arrive, you knew exactly when all the cash raises would take place, you knew exactly when the trials would finish and you also knew exactly the results of them years in advance.

What? you didn't? So you just thought ..."if this does work out I will be rich!"

But sure you were not gambling.

You kill me, absolutely kill me.

Indian, I don't actually talk AVCT down ever.

My posts attempt to be objective in its valuation as that is what is important to me as an investment. Is it likely to go up or down. and when?

I cannot short (and would not short even if I could), AVCT.

This fixation that somehow trying to figure out why there seems to be a long running disconnect in the valuation and the near-term potential of AVCT is an "immoral" position to take is frankly absurd. (I imagine you must be rooting just as hard for companies that are competing with AVCT too? or as you don't hold their stock, you don't care about them?)

(I am no part of any cohort by the way and again these "conclusions" that are drawn are simply an invented bias on your (and others) part)

Do you think its me that has "impeded" the progress of AVCT? Do you think I affect the SP when I discuss with others maybe the reasons of the low SP? Is it me that asked for further DE's? Was it me that organised the Science Day?

Its when I read posts like yours that I almost despair at the ridiculous assumptions that are drawn to suit your own version of the reality of the current SP.

I have recently posted that the disconnect we all see will likely be relatively short lived. I have repeatedly said that I think AVCT will be bought out in the next 6-12 months when the first update on the efficacy is released as the trigger.

Actually read my posts would you before you post such utter garbage.

You are as obstinate as I am RAH.

I am not aware of anyone who has or is disputing the science.

This repetitive false argument you insist on making with nearly every post you make reminds me well...of me.

Anyway, it has again bounced off a support so we may actually agree at least that AVCT has found its bottom, (if not the reasons for its low valuation.)