Member Info for wyndrum

Verti... Where was the abuse?

I simply questioned a posters intent as he has a rep for being sarcastic.

"Al stated it won't drag on"

oh, thats all right then. Given his track record on timescales.......

Are you for real?

Because ripley I think its worth a holding based on the risk reward. ( I think I may have said this before......)

The way I see it is that it works but ALL OF US (incl all here and the "market") don't know how well, or when we will know how well it works.

As a result we ALL have to wait.

Therefore to me... personally... the wait is worth it based on the potential gain.

In the meantime we all get to spout whatever rubbish we like on this BB secure in the knowledge it will have no affect on the outcome.

So i will chip in if I agree or disagree with some views and explain why.

What I try not to do is resort to personal abuse. I think that approach makes for a more cordial exchange of views and a better atmosphere to the board generally.

I'm sorry but we just go round in circles. there is no definition of the term. Its vague and unfortunately typical of AS as was his insert recently of "just because it goes quiet doesn't mean things are not going on".

That implies (to me based on what has gone before) that this is going to take a bit longer than forecast.

Personally I think the vagueness is that they know it works but it is impossible to be any more definitive until it works on tumours that respond to dox and those measurements can be taken.

To me that makes sense and at the same time could explain why the market for now has let this stock go to the back burner.

( I also wish he had not used the word "exquisite" though in his interview as that just brings back the LFT and reminds people of that outcome)

Patience

While this may all be true, the recent results were very encouraging in relation to the current SP.

There seems to be an uplift in customer activity and sales. Whether or not the senior members of the board can scupper it remains to be seen.

Personally I would at least wait for the next set ( 6 month) results to see the actual facts rather than make presumptions on BoD's that we know little of what they actually do or don't do. ) Dyor etc etc

Things can move very quickly... That to me begs the question that on these examples, was there a trigger?

Was some news announced (or shortly after the SP move was news announced), or was it just a randomly timed move up? (ie it shot up for no apparent reason.)

Well, 2 things, I am 99% sure you have not "green boxed" me and two who cares?

How many times do you feel you have to puff yourself up telling everyone you have filtered me?

Ripley, its not that i ignore what a company does or info it releases, its the extrapolation that can take place after.

RAH is a good example of that type of thing. The conclusion is based on a number of assumptions coming to pass. The more assumptions made increases the potential different paths available and therefore increases the odds of a particular outcome being achieved.

The shorter the timescale (or just looking a limited distance ahead), should shorten the odds of coming to a wrong conclusion.

And that is why I look at the SP over a short(er) timeframe as for me it increases the odds of making a profit on my stock picks.

But as always, each to his own.

None at all ripley. I never go on twitter. (I only highlighted "guess" as you have in the past criticised my observations as not being factual and just an opinion, which was/is true.)

As you know I find "research" over rated. (Basically its guesswork, dot joining without numbers to guide you, so different people end up drawing different pictures from the same info.)

Philosophically, research will highlight what a company's prospects are. Then when you look at the market cap (SP) of the company you take a view of either a mismatch now or the potential for SP appreciation in the future if all goes to plan.

Without going into the whole gambling/ investing thing, the next bit is, If the market is wrong now, why or what evidence will there be that the market will ever get it right?

Say the SP goes to 1000p, it still won't reflect the "true" value otherwise no one would buy if they did not think there was further gains to be made, so in theory no one here will ever sell, because the market still does not value AVCT correctly.

But we will sell, and the bit that will drive the majority of sells is the ultimate profit we make.

In other words once the individual has their own SP target met, they will sell.

So in the end it does not come down to market valuing AVCT correctly or anything other than the profit the individual is happy to take at any given price on any given day.

Its people who buy and sell and its these transaction that ultimately move the SP, not in actuality what the company does.

It is this transaction ie people buying and selling and not companies actions, that allow perceived mismatches in value to arise.

Imo its all about crowd behaviour when it come to SP's. People may argue "value will out", but when, and how is that ever calculated? And if you can't answer those questions then how can you decide when to sell and at what price?

The SP and its movements do tell a story. Whether anyone wants to hear it is another matter.

I do love the view that prevails you are all so much better than everyone else in your stock picking ,how much smarter you are than the collective market.

You must be all so rich now, and just on the back of all that research on the LFT you did. (Which I might add you kindly posted here all the time). Gosh, you gave the market a bloody nose with that one!

I have been told I come across as arrogant but compared to some here I don't even get on your scale.

That interesting Xenor.

Do you know why you don't like selling?

Cheers

Maybe I am over thinking it, but my experience for what its worth, is that the market does not let a mismatch in value and price last this long.

Who knows?

But these are the facts. The trial news thus far has been about as good as it can be. I think we genuinely all agree about that. And that the Trial is over a year old. and that the SP has not moved much.

By and large (because there is a bit of overlap with LFT) the trial has given a SP of around 100-110p. (There have been spikes due to the expectation of the trial completing and the next phase starting but always fallen back when that has not been the case). There have been so many false dawns that the market will now just wait I think.

So the market looking at the SP has been consitant, with a valuation based on the sfaety part of the trial living up to expectation.

We have to wait for the results of the next phase.

My GUESS is that AVCT will move to 140p when the p1b starts (or a date is given for it starting)

That COULD BE several months away yet.

All I have tried to do is air arguments that may be used to figure out what the SP is where it is.

If none of you here agree with them then I am happy to hear different views, other than the Thick as Mince one, as I have already thought about that and find it unlikely. (If for no other reason why would you buy any stock if the market it was bought and sold in, had no idea of how to value them? How would you ever know when the market would give you the price you thought it was worth?)

Well ripley, given you already know the results both of this trial and the one that has yet to start please do publish them would you?

How much Dox?

And its in Tumours that don't respond to dox, so how does that help?

Its just trying to look at the other side of the coin.

Now its all about how good is it in terms of treatment. And we don't know, and we don't know when we will know.

It would seem to be 12-18 months away tops to know the answer. in the meantime, the market does not want to overcommit at this stage based on past historical near misses in this sector.

Its not a conspiracy, or a thick market but more the positive bias by PI's on this BB that find it hard to accept the current SP.

God knows, history supports the markets view both generally and AVCT in particular.

This is a binary play.

It either works in humans or it doesn't.

The choice maybe 50/50 but the research and evidence to date suggest that it is more likely to work than not.

So what else can it be?

How "safe" is it?

Currently looks very safe as the trial is being extended to allow even higher doses of this very toxic drug.

When will this be officially recognised, probably within the next 2 months or so.

How efficacious is it?

Don't know. It will depend on the the 2nd part of the trial results.

When will first update be released?

Don't know and it will be dependant on when the first part of the trial finishes.

So back to this binary "either works or it doesn't" question.

Wwith no projected time line on when this will be known it is less surprising that the SP is drifiting with no currently impetus to go up.

This will change with news but park how wonderful we think AVCT are and understand that this sector is littered with promising cures that ultimately failed. We all hope this will be the one that surprises, but I don't think right now the risk reward is that out of kilter given what is known and perhaps more importantly, what is not known.

The market will move on data, not assumptions. I don't find that unreasonable. Otherwise its just gambling......

Well, its quite choppy now Xenor. The absolute bottom is 12.75p.

Right now it closed on Friday at 14.6 below a minor support of 14.75

The next support(s) are around 13.75-13.88. (which could be used as a stop, say 13.50p)

The upshot (just imo), is Its about risk reward.

Buy in a 14.4p with a stop loss at 13.5p (1.1p loss). First target is 17.5, (3.1p gain) which is just about ok.

Anyway, there are a few supports but bit by bit the SP has fallen, taking them out.

But as I am always fond of saying, at some stage you have to pull the trigger.

If you want to wait for further falls but it moves away from here then you would/should wait for 18p before re-entering.

Or you take on bigger risk (now) but for potentially bigger gain.

Its a game....

"My reservation is with so much news pending you could get caught on the wrong side"

Its fairly straight forward BT, you don't have to sell everything if you think it might fall. You might just sell 10 or 20% or your holding for instance keeping the majority for the potential braking news.

(Also from a Traders perspective, we don't care about price moves. As long as the trade was profitable then thats it.

As an example a trade might have been bought at 15p and sold at 17p. Then news breaks and it moves to 25p. The trader does not care at all. If he thinks there is more profit to be made he will buy at 25p. Its a fresh trade and the other trades have been and gone are now irrelevant.)

It's essential, if trading, to emotionally separate the price from the company. Its just numbers. It eliminates Fear & Greed.

"are you feeling silly WYN?" yeah, but no more than usual

Thanks