Member Info for wyndrum

Fingers crossed it just moves up a bit more now as 13p is a more long standing high albeit a spike.

The best news from a chart perspective is a close 13.5p or more.

Having said that the recent high of 12.5p is probably more significant but a close above 13p only further reinforces the likely hood of more gains to come.

(Just my opinion DYOR etc)

Oh for goodness sake, why don't you all give it a rest keep targeting me?

Its so pointless.

How has all the timeline targets set by RAH for instance gone? Still think his assumptions are worth the recs he always gets?

If you started thinking for yourselves rather than assuming this echo chamber is of any use you might end up making better decisions.

Its difficult to know if you are as stupid as you post. I can only take it at face value and assume you are.

I am not over committed. I think the news will be positive as I have already stated when the update date was announced.

I will look again if this falls below 95p but otherwise why you speculate on what you think i am doing is beyond me.

LD, I agree that assessment is currently and broadly correct. But where I differ slightly is that the BU will be more detailed so as to put the slow march to P1b into a context to assure the market that the wait is not a financial burden that maybe the market is assuming it is now.

I do think it will be more business orientated showing a route to market and more in depth to the big potential value drivers to relax the market that something special is going on. This will require data and maybe refferences to other companies who have been bought out etc etc.

If they don't (and it is what has historically happened which is just vague and ambiguous statements) then the SP will stay under pressure.

We have all tried to figure out value and this company is impossible to say at this stage. It is already ridiculously over valued if they produce little, on the other hand hopelessly undervalued if they crack it.

It allows the possibility of dramatic movement either way., but at the same time making it a pretty wild gamble for all concerned.

Its not unreasonable as we approach a potential defining moment for some money to be taken off the board. When there is 6 months before any expected news its easy to stay in and maybe see an appreciating SP. Once you can see a date looming that could go either way, even if the odds suggest good news over bad, it still concentrates the mind for those who might be over committed.

(imo DYOR etc etc)

"You are stupid, that's not my fault and my track record of pointing this out is impeccable."

Except you could not be more wrong could you.

I remember saying I thought the lock downs were an over reaction and the cure could be worse than the illness.

I said in the November as soon as the vaccine announcement was made it was a real race against time to get income from the LFT. If you were so relaxed about the various possible outcomes why then were you so scathing in my views?

I suggested back in December this was going nowhere in the short term. at 100p per share. (I may not have put that sale to profitable use yet but I don't expect to get it right every time), but I got this right. Just as I have said it is likely to be Q4/Q1 for the start of P1b which is looking more and more likely.

"but unlike you I don't spend a significant amount of time posting that a clinical trial won't succeed based on an LFT."

At no point have I said the above, ever, but because you are so completely wrong you just make up stuff to justify your mistaken view and dig the hole ever deeper. And you know it as well, as you have done it so many, many times.

I imagine you buy lottery tickets every week too , you know for the "potential" of winning without caring about the odds of it actually happening. You are a bigger gambler than me... ha ha

You were insulting rude about all of this claiming China had the right Idea. What al laugh as insultin

1887, there is no "risk" in being out of the market.

This is often a criticism of traders by LTH's .

Some view it as all or nothing. Traders are well aware that news is imminent and could fall at any time so they may keep a small position, but mostly if they have previously sold at a profit they don't care that next week it might be 200p per share. They will look at it and if they think there is a further profit to be made they will buy at 200p.

They have not "lost" anything by waiting. Its just LTH's judging others by their criteria.

After all they may have sold around 180p and buying back in now for instance? who knows? But who cares, it makes no difference to you or me.

I understand the principle you make Chris, but whats wrong with buying stock in any company (say BAE or BATS), and then giving that profit (if you make any) to the good causes you want?

Its not as though the money will go to those companies, but if they have a better chance of making a return rather than high risk bio techs, would that not be a more pragmatic solution to the objective of doing good?

I don't know where your ethical compass drives you but if an individual was against gambling say, then do you stop watching football? Or if you dislike smoking do you stop watching F1?

What about Arms companies? Don't we need that tech should we be attacked to defend ourselves or help others we think are in need?

(I would be interested to see if anyone invested in AVCT with the aim of NOT to make a profit......)

Anyway, my point was that , for whatever reason, AVCT have always talked a good fight but have yet to deliver.

That understandably affects the risk appetite for the general market to jump on board early.

It never ceases to amaze me when I remark on absolutely non-contentious issues that are in black and white in the pages of history that then generate such a defensive, emotional, personal response.

And do tell BV, what made you buy AVCT stock?

If you wanted to help AVCT in their pursuit you could and should have sent them the money directly as buying the stock simply gave the money to another shareholder and bypassed AVCT completely. Did you do this?

Presumably you want the SP to go up so as to make a profit?

I am not sure how you can extrapolate someone (or anyone), who buys and sells various stocks with the aim of making a profit which is the only reason for the exercise, (for everyone), with deciding on their moral outlook in life?

Its this constant knee-jerk reaction to personalize with ridiculous assumptions that make any sort of commercial debate here impossible.

Neut, I don't know what went on at a govt level on who got what test and why and as a result imo all the stuff that may or may not have gone on is a red herring as far as AVCT 's test is concerned.

What I do believe is that AVCT were not in the frame as they did not have a test that was ready to go.

I do remember Boris saying in the previous December (I think) when he was at Porton Down, that a UK (or number of UK) companies were very close but not quite there yet, which I took to mean AVCT which in hindsight looks to have been correct.

Have you forgot the TT transfer that was meant to take a month and then went very quiet and only several months later we were told that another company was to do the TT with no explanation, (which in turn took a long time)

My recollection is that AS said that by May of 2020 we had a test that was very accurate and somehow took another 18 months to go into production before being pulled 2weeks later due to its lack of accuracy.

No other test was withdrawn under the excuse AS made.

So my opinion is that ultimately AS had a test that worked initially in the lab but was not commercially viable either in price or in its ability to scale up or both.

"It didn’t fail AS pulled the lft from the market because it wasn’t up to AS high standards!"

(If you believe that then I have a London Bridge you might be interested in buying......)

Why didn't it sell when it had business approval months before Omicron was even know about and the virus was at its peak?

All I said was that AVCT's commercial track record is so far has a 100% failure rate. So when valuing a company that has to be taken into account.

We all assumed the LFT could not fail, all of us here, all of us... and yet it failed.

I am always amazed at the conceit here of so many when faced with actual facts against their own unrefutable opinions.

Its a risk, you bet what you think is appropriate and then wait for the outcome.

Trying to explain where Imo I see the general markets reluctance to buy more stock has no bearing on my personal view.

" I'm surprised AS has not followed up on his possible threat to list on NASDAQ as AIM is now quite useless for his company."

Why? what difference does it make?

This company will fly if the tech works as expected in patients.

If we are talking about lack of a SP that reflects this potential right now, then all you are saying that there would be more paper wealth at this stage for share holders but that would collapse if the tech failed but would still rise to the "fair" value, if and when the tech proves itself in the trials.

It is constantly overlooked here by many that many companies (the vast majority), in this field fail. AVCT themselves for all the comments and test results etc etc on the LFT test being the best in the world failed commercially, as did BAMS as did Elisa. So, whether we like it or not, currently the only example for markets to assess AVCT has been commercial failure.

This part of the trial is based on a vanishingly small sample just to ascertain that no harm will be done to patients in the next stage of the process.

The market will also look at the DX part of the business too, as AVCT is buying market share which it so far has failed to develop under its own DX products.

This is really an all or nothing company, so how do you value it? If it comes good its ridiculous to see currently at a market cap of £300m, if it fails its worth a tenth of it price.

We think the market is missing a trick but its just about risk appetite.

And right now with yet further interest rates coming and probably a recession, the general market is moving away form higher risk stocks and hunkering down.

"If the bottom is 'defined' by you then what can go wrong!"

ha ha! Yes, my thoughts exactly!

I'd like to think Thorn, that the SP already reflects, not only the delays to date but the expectation of the "worse case" (timewise) of a 7th DE.

Therefore on that basis I am of the view that the SP bottomed at 104p and therefore by definition the only way left is up.

I found the RNS to be too explicit if its presaging bad news, which means I expect enough good news in there to get this SP moving.

FG, if the positive outlook does not come to pass the shares are not undervalued, if it does the SP will go up.

To hope people will buy and force the SP up on speculation that may turn out to be unfounded is nothing to do with plain speaking.

The individual does their research or whatever it is that draws them to a stock and then presumably if that story changes they change their view of the investment.

These BB's imo are not particularly helpful to most PI's

"Ramp away "

Really?

Then you must also allow others to De-ramp away with equal vigour.

The SP is not moved by unsubstantiated posts on these types of BB's.

Further, I would like to think lessons have been learnt from how the "science day" was marketed and presented and the info will be better targeted to the expected audience this time around.

Just to pass the time while we wait for the expected confirmation of the joint drill:

If both companies drills were successful then I would not be surprised if a merger took place very quickly.

This enlarged reserve of commercial helium would catapult them to an even more powerful position than the 2 separate entities.

There would be an immediate reduction in costs and the greater total reserves would make further funding easier and/or force a higher buy out price as they would not be fighting each other but now have, as one company exactly the same goals.

It gives whatever path the 2 companies want to pursue, greater scale and clout to achieve those goals.

(Just my speculative opinion)

I read this RNS that there will be important news released. Esp. as it includes 60 minutes of a business update so soon after the last one.

Both strands of the business are to be discussed with presumably clear company-expected direction.

If I divide the strands into 1 (TX) & 2 (DX) then I guess these are the very broad options:

1 & 2 doing well: 1 Doing well, 2 doing poorly: 1 Doing poorly, 2 doing well: 1 & 2 both doing poorly.

Realistically its unlikely that DX is doing poorly as the acquisitions are so new, so I would expect more of a vision of where AVCT are going with this rather than much figures other then to say how LD is starting to bed in.

So now that leaves 3 options.

TX: Well, so far the results have been from what AS has repeatedly reported, as going to plan, and the plan is a revolution in certain types of Cancer care. Yes, there was the unexpected MTD at the forecast end of the trial and I don't know if that was spun as good news or is actually good news. Given the past results with the biopsies and the low toxicity it would be a huge surprise if the extension to the trial was because of disappointing results in the 4th DE. But it remains a possibility, but I think unlikely.

That leaves one (broad )option as imo the most likely ou come "1 & 2 doing well"

The way the RNS is so detailed seems to my recollection to be unusual for AVCT which again I take to be positive particularly as there are Q&A parts to the presentations.

Overall I am expecting a good run up in the SP to this presentation and my expectation then reverts to hope that AVCT can actually present good news without damaging the SP. (That in itself would be quite something!)