Member Info for wyndrum

Well, DTW, DG has tried to explain what you clearly can't grasp.

AVCT have a track record of when things don't go to plan by going silent.

I was and am not comparing (and believe you could read that in my post) that I was comparing the LFT for Covid to the current AV6k trial, but highlighting that when forecasted timelines are not met it does not de-facto follow that all is well and gave examples in FACT when this has been the case.

Your default position (as in fact only a few here), to use personal insults to justify a straw man argument, only goes further to undermine the point you were inaccurately trying to make.

Here's the thing BV, I (as a for instance) when he initially said mid year thought based on the past, that meant more likely, p1b starting Q4/Q1. I was slated by some saying AS said mid year!

So we can't have it both ways.

The other thing given the missed timelines (for whatever reason) are always underplayed by AS.

For instance he could have said "...if there are no delays then we would expect a mid year finish. However, these trials are fraught with the chance of events causing these projections to be extended, so very best case Mid year, but lets see how it goes..."

But as I said yesterday, because we are all so anxious to have the money in the bank of a huge SP appreciation we want updates every few weeks when in reality, small companies like this drop info as and when they feel it necessary and typically it can be months at a time with nothing to report.

We are more the problem than AVCT I think in our expectation of the frequency of updates, but for the sake of fairness he encourages optimism of timelines and then when missed goes silent, so its a bit of both of our unrealistic need for hand holding and his over optimistic deadlines.

RAH, your insecurity about this stock seems to be getting worse.

"It’s no surprise it picks up when there is some silence. Which, btw, means they are ‘just getting on with it’."

What? you mean like we are producing a new omicron LFT? how long did that silence last?

Or the sales of BAMS and ELISA?

Silence in fact, has historically not been a good sign.

I have no problem with the wait as there is nothing I can about it but to unequivocally say what you said is just wrong and ramping.

Your choice of missing out the actual wording of what AS said which was : "Therapeutically Significant" which is a loose medical term to simply mean an improvement on what has gone before.

None of the above remotely bothers me but these constant ramping and assumptive posts as though they were facts while criticising others for taking a more balanced view is simply hypocritical.

The trial is ongoing, we don't know the efficacy, we don't how long it will take before the next stage will take (certainly not under your forecasts thats for sure), so we just have to wait.

Quite why you are so desperate to continually regurgitate old info and then pretend you have the inside track on what is going on is laughable.

Timelines have been constantly put back, ok, so what, as shareholders we either stay in or get out. But as you never saw a single delay coming, I don't know why you hide behind the lazy "its just FUD " responses but it sums up your lack of analytical processes.

Fair enough Geege, But I was not saying things going off the rails either.

I agree that if the individual thinks this is a stock worth buying then based on past SP performance this price could be a good entry point.

Apre, when will you stop? I don't feel victimised. I don't attack the company, I don't attack the investors. And I don't lash out. (I may be deluded I spose but I don't think i am)

I try to discuss views and opinions, thats all. Its you that personalises it and then go over the top in your reaction to my view on why the SP is falling when logic says it should be doing the opposite.

In fact your reaction comes across to me as hysterical by the language you use, but you say its based on tedium.

One of us is wrong and as you know yourself better than me, it must be me.

Gje,

I said your statement of "" Better to buy now than wait until 150!" indicated a thought process, not what your stake was.

The exclamation mark emphasized the obviousness of the remark as though to indicate no other option was available.

I might be wrong, but by defending your risk profile suggests that you don't see this as a particularly risky stock, given I said I thought it was?

And yet the SP has fallen dramatically from its recent high of a few months ago.

I used the example of the LFT and was clear in my post, that it was about what AVCT (and not the test itself) said and reported over a long period of time that it cannot be taken as read what they say for actual outcomes.

You may be correct that this is now the bottom, but why does it continually fall? Why was last week not the low point or the week before? What has changed in the last 2 weeks?

(Of course to accept this is the bottom is only based on the historical price movements and I can't remember if you debunk TA or not.)

Its not so much that I flip flop, but so many posts here are based on assumptions that are portrayed as facts, that I try to highlight that there might be alternatives that we are not aware of or considering.

Apre, It really depends on your point of view and the assumptions you make.

How can I be a liar if you think I have been downbeat on AVCT with the SP at 101p? Surely I have been proved correct in being less enthusiastic then some here? And by reminding people of the risk over a period of time here, is there not an argument to be made that people may have sold (if anyone does agree with any conclusion I come to), at a higher price than today and therefore my views have been helpful and saved them money?

Then we get to the old chestnut of being able through my posts, to manipulate the SP.

I don't get many recs per post, which suggests my views are not widely agreed with, which would indicate my influence is small to non existent.

Others here, RAH for instance, get multiples of my recs and yet the SP continues to fall.

The conclusion I come to is that neither view affects the SP.

So who is right and who us wrong? Your view or mine? and does it matter because the SP is still 101p?

Your arrogance in the assumptions you make thinking your are right and everyone else who disagrees with you is wrong only illustrates your closed and blinkered mind.

Gje, my experience of AIM is not AIM, but the companies on AIM.

These tend to be higher risk smaller companies. This in turn typically meaning that if they get it right the SP can appreciate faster and higher than other index's.

Because of the nature of higher risk it by definition means that positive outcomes are less certain.

This index because of the companies it attracts, will also therefore attract individuals with higher risk appetites.

So the cause and effect is generated by the stock first and then that attracts the type of investor who generate what you see as unnecessary volatility.

When you say " Better to buy now than wait until 150!" Well, only if it goes to 150p.

Even if it does go to 150p, what if then its completely de-risked on news that propels it to 150p? Would it not be better to wait until that 150p price is reached rather than gamble that the SP won't fall any further? (Back to risk appetite.)

The fact you make that statement indicates to me, on the face of it, that you are a typical AIM investor, willing to gamble on big returns before the outcome is known, concentrating exclusively on the upside and minimising the chance or any scenario of failure.

I have recently brought up the LFT test not as a direct comparison to the current trial but simply as an example that you should not take as gospel what AVCT say and what this BB believes, to the detriment of any other view because there is factual evidence that for all the RNS's, the Paul Hill interviews, the ink signing of Elite Sports clubs, the "Exquisite Test" being the best in the world and all of the news to date (at that time) was positive (or very positive) and yet, it commercially failed.

This is the type of Company that AIM attracts, whereby Directors seem to be able to say what they like without any comeback. Thats the risk of buying AIM stocks, not the punters it attracts, that's just the by-product.

And the bottom line still is... don't buy any more than you can comfortably afford to lose, because then none of it matters. The fact people don't, shows you how powerful the gambling drug is.

Clearly your statement is incorrect. There is a huge assumption in there.

If it was doing what you say, the SP would not have fallen to the price it has.

Therefore something else might be going on? what could be an alternative?

"yet today you can pay 20p less than where the share price sat 673 days ago. Before a patient had even been dosed."

yes, because when it started AVCT said both phases of the trial would be complete by summer 2023.

So far we have not finished phase one with very small cohorts of DE, with potentially 1 or 2 more to come.

There has been a recent cash raise purported to be a loan which has in fact turned out to be the slowest share dilution in history as the loan is paid by in a few weeks of selling, every quarter. I think July is the next round?

None of this matters if AVCT get there in the end but in the meantime for investors that are trying to asses returns and timescales for them it seems to get further away rather than closer.

I only submit this as RAH could not see any reason as to why this is happening.

Still not a fan then, Apre?

(You could just lighten up a tad, life's far too short)

Well D, its always got 2 choices but the psychology now i think is for holders at this level who realise/believe if it falls below 100p will see further sharp falls, might be tempted to sell now in front of that potential outcome. (If enough do it then it becomes self fulfilling).

There will be others that are waiting to buy on a support of say, 100p, so are just biding their time.

Thats why I prefer to wait for close of play levels, as it becomes clearer often, to see what the underlying level of strength (or weakness) is.

What makes charts work imo, is the fact that the vast majority of PI's over commit so the emotional pull to make decisions is almost impossible to resist.

All the time the PI has an amount invested where it makes no material difference to their life of any movement (up or down) can the stock be looked at dispassionately and objectively, whether thats on a fundamental or chart basis.

If I quickly use a different stock as an example. I bought HEMO recently on the expectation they would get FDA approval for a trial. The FDA has put that on hold at the very end of the time that they have to make these types of decisions. Naturally the SP fell. I immediately sold and took the hit because the reason that I bought in the first place was no longer valid. (Since my selling at a loss price, the SP has continued to fall so that it now would have to appreciate by 50% just to get back to that loss value.)

If my original purchase was so large that taking the loss hurt me too much, then I would be paralysed and would have hung on on the hope it would rally. Or at least put off the decision until it was clearer what was going on.

That seemingly "rational" thought process was nothing of the sort. I would have moved from a rational position for buying the stock in the first place, to then "hoping" good news would come to rally the SP when the story had fundamentally changed.

(Thats what over-commitment does. Rational thought goes out the window but we pretend it hasn't)

all imho

Hano, fwiw going forward I would advise not to always assume or "blame" traders for falls in the SP through manipulation.

I am not saying it never happens but its difficult to short stocks on aim, so they can only "force" the SP down by selling stock they have and given we are at very low levels its unlikely that this is a manufactured or false fall. (Different of course if a an official short is taken out)

I could be wrong but this stock now has been falling for weeks, indeed months so this latest leg down is most likely just nervous pi's.

The mark down today by the MM's to see what level of confidence there is for the stock as it is close to major support levels, but the length of time of the fall suggests that overall interest and belief is waining in the PI market.

It will be clearer I think, to see where it ends today.

On a fundamental level its easy to "explain" why there seems to be a lack of confidence or enthusiasm right now.

Certainly my expectation of a slowly increasing SP from when the update was announced has been wrong with in fact, the opposite happening.

This suggests that the market is not expecting any new, positive news. (Announcing new DE's is not a positive for the SP as it effectively kicks the can down the road of the date for information that everybody wants, which is the efficacy results. )

The time taken for this DE to complete, whatever the results of it are, simply compound the potential timescales if new DE's are needed.

Also it seems to be out of AVCT's hands as the extension was unexpected for this latest round. So when will it finish?

Will it end at DE7? It seems likely but only because that is what AS said but what he says and what comes to pass are rarely the same thing, so the uncertainty is now winning the day.

You can look at comms from an investors pov, in 2 ways I think. Its either "poor" with ambiguous wording and lacking in clearer direction and info, or the PI should accept that this is the nature of the Bio-techs developing their new products and its a very, very slow process with little hard info to report frequently, and as result its a "put in the draw and forget about" type purchase as it is probably the highest risk stock you can buy.

This BB has calmed down now, but having 100's of posts a day in this type of stock feeds an expectancy of Investor company info that is unrealistic. Just my 2 cents Dyor etc

Derby, I sold AVCT at 99p when it was 100p its now 104.5p... ohh terrible....

I have also being buying up Harl ever since and have a BE at 17.2p

Helium is up as well,

In fact my worse performer is AVCT.

Watching... I didn't bring this up. Take it up with Strangy as he is the one who seems obsessed with me and posted his gleeful little remark.

Well, thanks for your good wishes but I got back in on the retrace, at 10.5p and as luck would have it this one has gone like clockwork. (Just so you can keep up as you raised this)

(In at 8.5p sold at 12.5p bought back in at 10.5p and now 14.2p)

Something seems to be afoot the way the SP is moving in the last couple of hours after a prolonged spell of inactivity....

Look out! the SP has just moved on the ask and bid!!!!! first time in days if not weeks......

I imagine a close of 22p or above will confirm a reversal is underway. The current support is 16.5p so close below that would suggest further falls

My mistake Metatron, I did not realise this was your BB and its on your say so who can post and who cannot.

Fingers crossed it just moves up a bit more now as 13p is a more long standing high albeit a spike.

The best news from a chart perspective is a close 13.5p or more.

Having said that the recent high of 12.5p is probably more significant but a close above 13p only further reinforces the likely hood of more gains to come.

(Just my opinion DYOR etc)