Member Info for wyndrum

Hi D,

I see where you are coming from. I use the time interval based on how long I expect to hold the stock as opposed to sharp movements in a smaller timeframe.

well, we will see! (How exciting :0))

Thing about charts/TA and forgive me if you all already know this, but its also about money management.

There is no expectation ever, of always getting it right. Its just odds, so to compensate for the obvious reality of some trades will be flat out wrong you have to have a risk reward ratio and it needs to be at least 3-1

easy example: SP is 10p on a support and you see the next target at 13p. If you are wrong and the SP falls you have a stop loss at 9p so you are risking 1p with the expectation of being right and making 3p per share. and thats a 3-1 RRR. This allows 1 in 3 trades being wrong but as long as 2 are right (on whatever stocks you are chossing), you should come out ahead. Obvioiusly if you see greater risk reward, say in the example the first target is 15p then its a 5-1RRR and very nice if it comes off.

So its quite mechanical and money management orientated to protect capital.

TA has at best a mixed press but my experience is that most who "trade" do not have the mental discipline to actually stick to the rules, or don't have a system that works at least 2 times out of 3.

Hi Dai,

I had bought on the last cash raise when it fell to 5.5p (or thats where I got in.) When it recently broke a resistance around 7 ish I can't remember the exact numbers, I added as it looked to me the drill was (from a market perspective) going to happen and then the next trading sessions it started to slump so I was very close this week to unloading it all as it was looking like they had completely screwed up the drill program and wasted a lot of money.

Once the RNS came out I loaded up asap but at the end of that day it was getting close to over bought status which I have found pretty reliable (nothing is infaliable) for falls/pullbacks.

However (and this is the thing if you use TA), you don't get hung up on "plans". If events change then the trader moves with them, so it became apparent that momentum was going to most likely carry on for a bit so it just became a case of timing more top ups as I saw the risk of falls diminishing from the price I was paying.

Nothing is certain, the SP always has 2 options, its just trying to play the odds as what is most likely to happen and not therefore EVER over committing to any particular stock.

I have left a modest final £2k to use if 8.5p hoves into view. (The tops up amounts diminish as the a rise continues, but I always prefer to average up then average down. But thats just me. Trend is your friend and all that.) If 8.5p does not happen then fine, I won't just spend the £2k anyway, there are other stocks out there that might show better returns, or not who knows, but once you chase a stock blindly you are into the emotional Fear & Greed tap dance which always, sooner or later, ends badly.

Everyone has their own system or criteria for picking and deciding when to buy or sell. I have just over the years, realised I know nothing and therefore focus only on what the crowd seem to be doing and try surf that wave as and when.

So when I post I can justifiably be accused from time to time of flip flopping but as events change so do my views and I have no problem doing a 180 if I think a material event has occurred that causes me to make a change in direction. I never get hung up on a single view and waiting/hoping for it to happen when the original circumstance for the buy in the first place may have changed.

Cheers

Really Cybertron? I have made a goodly amount this week topping up at 3 stages on top of my initial holding at 5.5p

I think the thing you might be missing is that "traders" don't buy 100% and sell 100%. Its much more nuanced and risk averse than that but hey, each to his own.

(I for instance haven't sold a single share all week of this one, just continually added on intra day dips.)

Well its over 80 on the rsi so a fall on monday more likely than not.

Those waiting to top up or are "late" to the party will be hovering over the buy button if it gets anywhere near 8.5.

(imo dyor etc etc )

I hate to break it to you Bladders, but it closed at 9.74p and yesterday it closed at 9.25p, so not really a pull back, slight or otherwise...

There will be a fair few down days to go over the next few weeks so best not to worry or read anything into it.

Ah Dai... I thought someone said it was in Tanzania 4 days ago....

i'll get my coat...

Its a bit silly really, but round figures (in this case 10p), do often make a bit of a sticking point.

Just bear in mind, when there are continued big rises, that people will have been and will continue to buy all the time and therefore will be selling all the time banking quick profits. Its not so much a "Traders" thing as simply crowd psychology and the fear and greed emotions thing at work

Glad to see your still here D!

Well, if it averages 150miles a day in travel and Tanzania is about 750 wide and the same long then it can't be far away?

Well, 8.5p is in the rear view mirror and has closed at 9.25p and the RSI is at 77.85p so is in oversold territory and I personally work off 80 as being a reliable place to sell..

But as LW pointed out a stock can stay in the oversold area for a while.

I think I will hedge my bets again and if it falls back close to 8.5p intra day then will add further.

Thing is now, chart-wise its starting to be too backward looking now 8.5p has been broken. (Charts are effective only in the short term, or at least become less effective the longer the time frame used is.)

Anyway, its been a super week so far and it would be nice to finish with a flourish tomorrow.

GLA

Nofear, I imagine that when people see a "short" has been placed some blindly sell and thus it can be self fulfilling?

Perhaps this way it reduces the "emotional" driver of fear?

Ha! that will be the kiss of death then! :0))

(it just an odds game but I thinks the odds look pretty good here)

Hi Oak,

I would see a close at 38p as the next small target. ( I can't see much relevance in 36p?)

The break and close above 34.6p was to me the confirmation that a reversal was likely. So a potential retrace to that now, support might happen but the RSI suggests to me that there is quite a lot of upward movement available for a more sustained run before deciding to take a breather.

I have not looked at Boo for quite along time and I don't know why but looked at it yesterday and, (to my surprise) thought it was worth a punt (but didn't), but the opening rise this morning was to me, further confirmation that there could be SP appreciation available.

Like all zig zag patterns there are a number of highs/lows all close by but to me this looks to be a low mid 40's target before the need to take further stock.

ATB

Well, at least the chart looks positive. Strong signs of a reversal underway. 43p ish looks dooable in the short term

(imo dyor etc etc)

Well, this is the latest "crunch" point.

Lets see how the market sees 8.5p

HD, it can always go up and down, using the SP action is simply trying to improve the odds of which direction is most likely.

When a SP is on a support in this case 10.5p it gives the trader a decision to make.

On the plus side its on support which means buying now increases the gain of any upward movement from here. On the other hand it needs only a small movement down to break the support and "force" the trader to sell.

Normally Traders like buying on a support because they realise they don't know whats going to happen next and if the market proves them wrong and the sp does fall, then when they sell its a very small loss.

If you you charts its all about money management and risk reward ratios.

Right now. the more risk averse trader will actually wait to see a close above 12p before committing funds.

But as always different money management systems can come into play. So, as an example maybe use 30% of allocated funds now at 10.5p and commit the other 70% at 12p plus.

Then if it does go south very little is lost (or risked) with a nice extra bit of profits if it does go beyond 12p.

LG, on balance I would expect a test of 8.5p before a retrace but (there is always a but), as it is in a trading range so the disciplined trader will not make a decision whilst in this area.

This morning it dipped to a sell of 7.6p so I added a few at 7.75 on the basis that it was close enough to a 7.5p potential retrace no matter what happens.

I'm just trying to cover all bases really.

To me the most likely options are, right now at this price:

Retrace to 7.5p

Rise to 8.5p

Rise beyond 8.5p (as per your example where the SP simply defies gravity and news propels it beyond the normal likely fluctuations.)

So for me, there is definitely a scenario where the fall to 7.5p may never come. it could rise to 8.5p and only unwind a little bit to 8p and then go up further, or shoot up dramatically and 8.5p would be the new support. Who knows.

So for me, by adding at 7.75p this morning it hedges my bet if you like, as I personally intended to add at around 7.5p anyway.

(The next potential option is that it falls below 7.5p but that is jumping ahead and I would only consider my options then should it occur.)

Cheers

Maybe... but maybe not.

The close price last night went down to the support of 10.5p.

If it closes below that then 9.5p would be next.

However, if it closes above 10.5p today then it suggests more rises likely than falls.

So, lets wait and see where it closes today before expecting further falls. (imo dyor etc)