Member Info for wyndrum

"I dont think that a non HARL shareholder is in a great place to judge shareholder value."

What? Doesn't every non-Harl shareholder judge the value of the company before deciding to be a shareholder (or not).

Jez, just read the RNS's.

Anything not covered there would only be speculation on here

Hank: "The only FUD left now is about the timeline to crystalisation (good luck with predicting that), and the need for further fund raising (another 10% dilution shock horror)"

FUD, Fear uncertainty and doubt... well, uncertainty and doubt mean basically the same thing.

As for "Fear" that is for the reader to be fearful or not, not the poster's words. For instance if your total investment in AVCT was £100 would anything make you fearful regarding a view you disagreed with? The worse case would be if they went bust, but clearly the "fear" that may or may not be experienced, is the scale of the financial outlay the individual has committed.

Back to uncertainty and doubt... how is that a bad thing to discus doubts as opposed to the best outcome, given we actually have little or no idea how events will unfold or the time it will take for these events to pass?

FUD is just a lazy catchall to eliminate and dismiss other views in this new world of so called free speech.

I just think the time the stock languishes and has been trickling down, confirms the most likely scenario is that the market needs much more certainty on time lines. Until then it seems reluctant to "snap up" the shares that are on the market.

I think also it would suggest there is little chance of a bid until p1b releases data as this would be such an easy option to buy the quarterly HC stock sale at would be, from the potential bidders pov, be a very very low price to accumulate some stock

dyor etc

I just think Rambo, that if HE1 does discover helium then there will be a cash raise and the value of the company will be of such a magnitude that the income from leasing the rig out will be such small beer as to make little difference. But clearly I am just guessing, so lets just hope the drill is successful!

Certainly it seemed a reasonable guess to put the low falling SP against the uncertainty of future funding.

This small tick up suggests that elements within the broader market is believe that funding is becoming more likely now.

Certainly if/when secure fundingits confirmed I would expect quite a dramatic re-rate.

I am also wondering that contracts are being held off signing until this funding is in place. (That would make sense to me)

So I think that if when funding is announced, it will be in conjunction with (or soon after) a slew of new contracts.

Just my opinion DYOR etc

I think we (certainly incl. me) may be over rating the ownership of the rig.

The obvious very positive benefit is that it is ours and we can use it as we see fit and as funds allow.

However the leasing of it out is probably not very likely.

Here's my thinking:

If we leased it out it would tie it up for many weeks or more likely months at a time, therefore limiting HE1 to use it for itself. Then you have the maintenance downtime and shipping (and more importantly time) costs, to get it from leased point A back to wherever HE1 want to use it.

And assuming HE1 discovers commercial Helium it becomes irrelevant to lease it out as we will no doubt be drilling further in different areas.

The only scenario is that we don't get a commercial discovery (and I assume we would try drilling elsewhere to confirm the failure first), and then lease it out but by then the SP won't be very high and the revenue might be academic and most likely would be sold?

So on balance I think this is all about HE1 and really nothing to do with leasing it out for potential revenue.

just my opinion dyor etc

The technicals are also continuing to unwind which will increase the odds of further rises too.

No, its possible, just not very possible.

And why now? why not last week, last month, in fact late, last year? What has changed?

It is extremely rare to miss the boat.

Say an RNS comes out with great news (say mtd is found) and the SP jumps to 200p. So what? new investors will buy in at 200p no boat has been missed just a higher entry level than some here have.

Its this contradictory stance that so many have here of not caring about the SP because at some stage in the future it will be worth 500p plus and at the same time criticising anybody who mentions the SP at its current value unless they are buying because they won't get another "opportunity"

This is the refuge of poor diciscion making.

Consoling yourself in the hope that a bid will come in, that a unforseen milestone payment will arrive, that a "surprise" RNS will drop "any day", that this is the last opportunity to buy or you will "miss the boat" whilst at the same time refusing to discuss or examine any other of the various outcomes available.

Hi D,

The Herd want to maximise profits. If its a no brainer that the SP will be 12p in a few weeks why would they not buy now?

Who knows....but these posts are very reminisent of the previous drill program and that turned out badly.

It does not mean this one will, but no post back then was expressing how it was all going to go tits up.

Its completely binary. If successful then huge appreciation . if not then .....

(hindsight will be a wonderful thing! :0))

"I think we are all in agreement that the price will be higher or substantially higher at spud than it is today and therefore that in itself tells us this is the level to be buying whether you want 12p ,15p or 20p , we will all be making money"

I don't see the logic?

The market knows we have a drill, the market knows when we expect to drill. Confirming that already known info will not surprise the market in any way, so why would the SP rise?

I have seen this remark before about spud and a SP rise but the times I have been in stocks where this applies it has not been the case.

I have no idea what will happen when Spud is announced but I don't see it as the slam dunk the poster believes. Also when that amount of profit is just sitting on the table from todays price to what is expected, then my experience is that people get on board before hand. So the SP at 9p suggests that until there is more new SP moving news there is unlikely to be too much SP movement.

just my opinion dyor etc etc.

Well, here's a bit of straw grabbing...

The upturn today looks like there is some buying gambling on a good RNS tomorrow morning. (which I think, we have not had an up day for 5 trading sessions?)

9.6p has been a minor resitance level and we closed at....

wait for it....

9.62p (how much more proof do you need!!!!)

I said it was straw grabbing, :0))

Seriously... those are positive technical indicators that suggest (faintly its true), that a reversal could be underway. A close above 10.20p would be much more significant.

Lets hope tomorrow turns a corner for the SP.

Bladders, its not really consolidating at a low enough price right now to be the next strong move you think is likely, based on no new news.

A possible scenario is although it is still in technical over-bought territory (71) right now, an unexpected positive RNS could shoot it up to say just as an example, 12p and then it could unwind to 10-11p for instance.

fwiw, I think this is perfectly possible, or there could be a further retrace to close around 8-8.5p to allow the current unwinding to complete.

Given both scenarios are I think fairly evenly balanced presently, it leaves the SP in a bit of no mans land for both buyers and sellers, which is why we have had a fairly static SP for the last few trading sessions.

I am not sure an RNS saying the rig has arrived will do much because the market is expecting that. Perhaps a firmer date on drill starting or indeed an earlier date of drilling would/could be the impetus to take it up.

Anyway, it could go up or it could go down but right now I don't see any overwhelming odds of either direction from a TA pov, so we all sit on our hands for a bit longer.

Patience I guess, it will unfold as it will and that's all we know for sure.....(Its still a crap shoot :0))

imo dyor etc

Ha ha good one ! ", try to think of something original or something that moves the debate forward."

Like what?

Every post gets the same treatment.

I often come out with ideas and views tyhat no one else hjas thought of.

Try and cast your mind back. How has that worked out?

Just for the record I am neither "whingeing you self-pitying ", that s just the view you CHOOSE to take that suits your rude response best.

Ripley: "What in the holy mother of funk has happened to this board?"

There is only one view allowed. If I post anything, then I get back typically half a dozen or more abusive replies, but nothing about the topic of the post which is always AVCT.

You were one one of the worst culprits.

Its dispiriting and incredibly childish for others to read that don't care about the equally childish view that the BB has to be monitored against views that they don't share, by being offensively rude and disruptive and personalising so many responses.

As it is relentless, so bit by bit those readers and posters that are interested in all views on AVCT, the science, the business, the potential outcomes and even the SP, God forbid, simply give up.

Apologies also, did not notice the thread title.

TA uses more than just the chart pattern. They look for other confirming indicators to improve the odds of making the right call.

Geedge, Yes it is at the bottom of the range so it is on a support, however it is in a down trend with lower highs and lower lows, so presently as there is no sign of a reversal it does not indicate a buy.

If the Chartist wanted to take a risk and buy on the support in the hope that it holds they would also be ready to sell as soon as it fell through the support at say, 97/98p

Charts are most accurate on shorter timescales so you would not over look the last 3 months in favour of the last 12.

And as always I don't recommend anything, I simply highlight that as the SP ALWAYS has 2 options, just which move is most likely.

Right now there are conflicting signals. People who use charts wait for the odds to be more on their side than the present AVCT chart is.

Lovey, ITS NOT NEGATIVE. I don't do negative/positive. Neither view as any influence or meaning on the realty of the company or SP. I try to be objective. I don't care about the company in the sense I don't get wrapped up in the emotions that so many do here. It clouds judgement imo.

I hold and continue to hold as eventually I think the risk reward will be worth it.

In the meantime, I thought the SP would be under continued pressure the longer this part of the trial continues and as I expect a raise to come through I have left further money in reserve, IN CASE there is an discount offer to PI's to take advantage of.

Its not negative, its simply trying to maximise profits.