Member Info for wyndrum

Ok safe, thanks for that well researched reply post too.

I am sorry that you find it crap that I think for myself and use my own thought processes rather than blindly rely on whatever happens to be posted, from whatever source.

Just as an aside: Do you believe everything you read?

Ah sorry for not being a mind reader Ice, Silly of me not to realise you were drunk and that in such a state the normal course of events makes you go a post to this BB.

Apologies again.

(And actually if you read my post there was no aggro in it, just an explanation why I thought your post was a ramp too far. God knows many here don't like any deramp whatever distace or lack of, it covers.)

Thank you Tom.

The bit I have had recent trouble with is the assumption AVCT have exceeded expectations.

Either AVCT have exceeded their own expectations or the independent trial monitors have had their expectations exceeded.

Given the previous work AVCT had done on previous lab testing including the mice, I am not sure that is the case because I don't think AVCT have actually said that.

Presumably the monitors of the trial would have been extremely well briefed by AVCT before and throughout as to what to expect and would be working closely with them during all stages of the trial.

So It seemed very odd to me that MTD was unexpected (and it was, because AS said so) With a 4 month hiatus to effectively restart the trial.

So it does not add up to me.

Unless it hasn't exceeded expectations and in fact is below expectations but is still showing a lot of promise and it was deemed more helpful, given some toxicity was now being seen that it would be better to get to a MTD to maximise the efficacy because it wasn't quite as good as hoped.

Clearly on the data so far provided it "works" but just maybe not as well as was forecast?

That scenario has some plausibilty to me, (it explains the vague statements, and the "low" SP and the immediate selling of the bond shares and lack of buy out rumour etc etc. whereas the "Exceeded" argument does not.

Donkey, the medical definition of "remarkable" seems to be "worthy of mention".

That gives a lot of leeway as to what is actually happening.

Its the same (imo) when AS said it had therapeutic relevance.

It means something is happening and in our context the tech is working inasmuch as with the biopsy data, that more Dox is in the tumour than would be expected had the AVCT tech not been administered.

The key, key point is how much or some sort of measurable yardstick to accompany these in fact, quite loose terms.

My issue and I quite understand it is MY issue, given the history, is why AS uses vague terms when there is an opportunity to further calibrate them.

It could have been: "This in medical terms is "remarkable" and all of us here at AVCT see this working even in the safety profile beyond our expectations, which were high to begin with."

I am not saying he Should have said that, I am just pointing out there could have been some context on these medical terms which are in fact very broad.

He chose not to for any number of reasons. which is fine, but at the same time I am not running away yet with the idea this is the next "bitcoin"

Explain defamatory against what he said re LFT and what came to pass.

He said AVCt were going to produce an omicron (new) LFT test. They did not.

He said he thought it was the best in the world but now has said why would you develop a new covid test when they now have a company that already has one. So it wasn't the best in the world then?

You are absolutely so caught up in this stock you refuse any other pov.

This was exactly the same when I raised my concerns over whether or not the AVCT would be commercially successful.

LFT, although you seem to want to airbrush it from history, was an example of AVCT's new tech and it after the hype failed to deliver. Thats the point. The company has yet to develop a commercial product. As a result all I said was, the market wants to see the data first and not get carried awa

(I mentioned 300p as figure only because it would be an all time high and the last time it was close to it, there was the market expectation of substantial revenue coming AVCT's way fairly quickly , therefore if the market did the same then the conclusion could be the same.

Your self righteous arrogance is quite something.

No Energy. not out, nor a rant but just trying to explain why maybe the SP is where it is when a ramp of the scale that Ice posted.

Whatever anyone says who is uber confident here, some balance is surely not a bad thing when ultimately what the majority of this BB is saying is that the whole of the market is wrong and are as thicj as mince.

And again, I am not saying this does not work, simply that its too early to say that it does, or perhaps better put, there is no yardstick yet to see how well it works.

Its a bit like buying a car because it advertises remarkable fuel economy. Would you not want to know quite how remarkable it was first, with real independent data? Would you not scoff at someone who went out and bought said car based on that pitch, without the data?

This to me is no different.

A lot of this is resolved by not over committing to any stock and fwiw risk management is essential and not an optional extra when considering managing your own portfolio.

Having a an exit plan is pretty straight forward and reasonable money management BEFORE entering any stock. (Otherwise how can you ever know what to do when events unfold other than make a quick unprepared decision)

Again, fwiw, too much fun is had in buying the stock with very little real thought to the consequence of it being a poor decision and the loss that may go with it

You too!

Forrest, fwiw 17.5p is the magic number for me. If Harl Close above that then further rises are more likely than not. (Dyor etc)

Gj I have neither issues or concerns and please do show me a post that has been useful. How can a 100% failure to predict anything correctly on this BB be deemed as useful?

Now, we are all prepared to wait 6 months or so. When did I say that? oh i know, 8 months ago and you all shouted me down exactly as your post is doing now.

Just accept that this remains a high risk stock with no guarantee of commercial success at this stage of its development.

There are still major headwinds to overcome.

It is the potential SP appreciation should all these obstacles be surmounted that keeps us in the stock.

The very fact that there is such profit on offer is directly linked to the chance of it coming off.

But by all means get carried away on the zero chance that anything goes wrong and it is just a matter of time.

Iain, the LFT was granted EU use for business and retail months before Omicron. The EU market was far bigger than the Uk. The sales did not materialise.

The TT took far far longer than AS led us to believe (with no explanation at the time as to why, and in the end it looks like it was uneconomic as well.

To top this off the test had an antibody in its makeup which i think if memory serves, AVCT never mentioned having previously highlighted the new novel, quick and cheap method of their approach which was to replace antibody derived tests

Further when it was pulled a new test would quickly be launched and it was not.

I am not bothered anymore about this but it does highlight that the AVCT board can be somewhat economical with the truth so when as a for instance AS says, the results thus far show it has therapeutic significance or relevance, what does that ACTUALLY mean?

As a result of factual history, (not made up guesses), I am extremely cautious about putting too much weight on the words that accompany the actual data.

And for my own part I think the SP tends to be, on all stocks, a pretty good precursor to likely events and right now as the trial continues the SP languishes which in turn suggests to me that the market (inc BP) is waiting for the data too, not the hyperbole, before deciding to re-rate the stock.

I may well be seen to offer nothing of value, (except being right in the non-commercialisation of the only product AVCT have launched thus far) but please also realise by this BB being always over optimistic in its expectations and forecasts has imo, shown even greater worthlessness than me.

If you want a decent read then try the Night Manager by john le Carre.

If you want objective opinion then this BB is not the place I'm afraid.

All I actually said, is we are where we are, and that we have to wait probably another 6 months for definitive data to prove this tech and not to get caught up like we did in the past, of putting weight on job applications that somehow infer imminent and confirmatory positive developments that we otherwise have no proof for.

LFT is history, whether we like it or not.

That history is not about the LFT per se, but by the comments and lead up to its failure by AS and the board. Its the only practical product that we have to reference AVCT comms by.

If you choose to ignore then by all means do.

But most here expected this it to be worth billions and why?, because AS et al told you it would be.

If that does not give you pause for thought then fine, but I need to see the data.

The data is not yet available.

This particular BB, for all its genuine good intent, is of no use at all in its analysis having been consistently over optimistic since day 1.

Live,I have no idea where AVCT is with the trial. I don't know when this cohort will finish, if there will be a next one or even one after that. I don't know if the 2 months of data collection and analysis will take 2 months or indeed longer? (i assume longer based on historical optimistic timelines.)

I don't know if they will license, go it alone or be bought out. (Coherent arguments can be made for all 3 options)

The results thus far have been opaque with ambiguous statements from AS.

The fact that you can get to a MTD means there are side affects. The big thing seemed to be the lack of heart toxicity, but what about the side affects that are present? What are they and how harmful are they?

The trial has been running for quite a time now so I am not sure why they need to have the crack team now and not 12 months ago?

When you say serious talk, from who?

At best it is rumour. That info will only come from P1b

Its all seems to be going to plan but just taking a lot longer than AS led the market to believe. There are knock on effects to this time extension.

we will know or should know in the next 6 months. The rest of it really does not matter because truly, after the walk up the hill that As did to us on the LFT I am just sceptical of any dot joining on this stock. (certainly by this BB)

I have bought my shares, I just have to wait to see if it pays off

Not really Tim but I filtered Hurst ages ago but your stupid, constant, very unfunny, board clogging responses have negated the point of the filter.

if its excitement you want tim, how about stop boring the **** of everyone with your constant replies to hurst, that even you with your intellect must realise are pointless?

I honestly can't believe we are going through this "excitement" of employment positions being advertised here again, after the same rigmarole when AVCT were gearing up for their LFT being produced/marketed.

AVCT simply need to get on to P1b. Everything else will take care of itself when the data is produced and the trial moves forward.

We have waited this long, another 6 months should do it.

If you have a bought position it would make sense to also have short in the stock as a hedge against failure.

This is normal procedure against such high risk stocks

Drilling is a double edged sword for investors.

Given the whole thing of exploration companies are very high risk the odds are always against them winning. (of course if they do strike it rich then the SP goes ballistic.)

So when you have been holding a stock for many months or even years and it has appreciated as it gets to the point of drilling, then do you as the investor, bank some/all profit and don't have the worry of a duster, or do you stay in and gamble that it comes good?

As most PI's over commit, that circle is very difficult to square but many will not have the nerve to hold so bail as there is increasingly little time , once the drill starts, to get out if there is any bad news suddenly announced.

My point is don't be surprised of the SP is more muted than you expect the closer to a result being announced.

Ipad I think the Sp would be instructive as to whats going on. (Even the weakest rumour would send the SP up sharply)

So based on that my view is that there is no bid on ay sort being discussed.