Member Info for wyndrum

Ok, so never mind the insults and all the rest.

AS said that in an RNS.

How does anyone else read it? You know the ACTUAL words he used. What do you think he meant. Based on what he said?

I am not holding my breath.

ICE, then why say"" Analysis of the tumour biopsies to date also confirms that enough doxorubicin is being released in the tumour to have a therapeutic effect. If even higher doses of AVA6000 are tolerated then this may make a significant difference to the outcomes for patients in the upcoming efficacy study."

He could have said it was already having a significant effect and higher doses would only increase that.

Why not say what you are implying?

Is the quote from the RNS (which is the one that counts, as it goes out to the market), then wrong?

BV, that was what AS said. Look it up

Its not a half truth. I am not distorting anything.

Conjecture ? Well of course its conjecture, just like every post on here is.

So the alternative is its going so well that the bond holder can't wait to sell as soon as the due date arrives? Does that make sense?

If its all so obvious this is potentially the biggest development of Treatment of Cancer based on results already in, then why is the market reticent in buying the stock?

Where are the II's?

Where are the buy out rumours?

What, nobody knows anything about AVCT?

None of it changes anything.

This will either commercially work or it won't I just don't think it is a slam dunk, not by any stretch

Maybe it is not exceeding expectations?

I thought and posted this recently as just an explanation to justify the SP

Below is what AS reported in an RNS when De5 finished:

" Analysis of the tumour biopsies to date also confirms that enough doxorubicin is being released in the tumour to have a therapeutic effect. If even higher doses of AVA6000 are tolerated then this may make a significant difference to the outcomes for patients in the upcoming efficacy study."

DE5 was 2.7 times the amount of DOX being administered. That seems a lot, but re-reading the above it sounds as though not as much dox is released into the tumour as expected? That seems to be confirmed when he says higher levels may make a "significant" difference. Inferring that it is not significant yet?

So I read this (now) that its working in terms of reduced side affects but maybe not as much is going into the tumour. That would explain why dosing levels had to continue and at higher levels and the 8,9,10 DE that AS recently referred to.

Also he says MAY make a significant difference.

So yes, reduced side affects and yes more dox going into tumour at a therapeutic level (but not significant) , but bigger amounts of dox are needed in an effort to get a significant improvement.

This explains (to me), the time line extension, and the desire to get to an MTD as up till then the difference of dox in the biopsy data was not sufficient, which led to the rumour that they had to squash about an imminent cash raise, (due to the extended time line). Abd finally AS saying it will be quiet for a while but it will be progressing behind the scenes.

Because rightly or wrongly there seems to be a fear that a cash raise could be coming sooner than many here think.

The scale of the supposed cash raise would be unclear. What if its not about a future drill but about raising funds for production? how big would dilution be? That in turn determines potential appreciation. We have had some posters do the calculation that 20p today corresponds to 28p before the last cash raise.

The market hates uncertainty.

Also not for nothing but we only have 1 drill. It can't be in 2places at once.

If this drill is successful we will use it to drill in other places that are licensed to He1. If we don't succeed with this drill we will use it to drill in other places that are licensed.

In either outcome we will not be letting anyone else use it. All the time its out with someone else we can't progress.

Knotagain.

So if the traders are locked out that means they have no stock?

And yet normally some bright spark here will accuse "traders" of selling stock deliberately forcing the price down, with a view presumably of buying back in lower down.

How can traders only ever sell stock if they never buy any?

I don't think you are a ramper I just think you have no earthly clue about how the market works, or indeed much idea about AVCT as a company and the specific area they work in.

"Oversold signal fully formed"

I can't see it. What time frame and interval are you using. What RSI figure are you getting?

Cheers

Somethings afoot for sure....

Chris, I don't know about you but I don't think you can take what AS says to the bank any more.

Certainly if there is no 7th DE then the SP will shoot up, and given what he said with a very unlikely 7th DE being necessary you would think the market is expecting this to be it. But I don't think they are, looking at the SP.

Thats the problem about always disappointing the market with timelines. They stop listening and assume the worse, and to be fair, thats a reasonable view based on several historical examples.

I wonder if the JV will be for production costs?

We have our own drill what do we need them for? (I get given its hard to get a drill that they need HE1)

If both companies are "convinced" they will both discover commercial helium then may sharing production costs makes more sense?

Not really huge support:

there was support at 98p-102p ish through the last 12 months but there have been lows below 95p, now recently 92p. In other words the big support has been broken and there has been no real sustained rise since.

So given the sp is about 5% above this level, its in view. Whether or not it will have another go remains to be seen.

As news affects the SP there are 2 fairly obvious drivers:

Assuming there is a 7th DE which i think is now likely, then either the 6th DE review of that data will be so positive that it will support the SP and move it higher.

Or:

If its just more of the same (ie very good/encouraging) then its another 3 months or so with potentially a possibility of an 8th. In any event in that timescale there will be another tranche of bond selling. which with the history of lower highs and lower lows would suggest that 95p will indeed go.

Nothing we can do about this other than normal options of buy sell hold.

Bliss, you say tomato......

Looks to me the market, now its out in the open, is wary of a cash raise sooner than the she is intermating.

I think may be they thought there was more cash available then clearly there is, and that any sort of hiccup or delay might/would force a cash raise before the drill after all.

(I do actually like how sceptical the market always is compared to us over enthusiastic PI's. Helps keep your feet on the ground)

Just my opinion

I Agree Goldman,

The difference in the SP between a failure and a success would be huge and unfair to investors to stump up prior to the drill as the dilution would be vastly more than if it was successful and equally unfair that if it was a duster, then they paid way over the odds for a higher risk drill in another area, given this is their best expected place to find commercial helium.

My view is that all is in place for this drill, and thats all, but that has always been the case because even if there was enough money for a 2nd drill, the SP would be decimated if the first drill was logged as uncommercial.

Its all or nothing. (other than He1 go into the drill rental business.....)

Nice place to top up!

The cash raise, on the back of a a commercial discovery will be interesting as I would expect the Sp to be somewhere between 30-35p, On that basis how many drills would they want to do? several, I guess to explore the region more fully. £20m? That would not be too bad in a dilutive sense.

It all hinges (as it always has done), on a successful drill. High stakes, for sure

I imagine the US market is a no brainer for all involved!

Yes it does Rambo,... Have we got efficacy data? Unless I have missed something P1b is months away from starting let alone having data produced from it.

The "problem" is this part of the trial is based on a small number of patients, so the data that is produced cannot just be extrapolated across to confirm what it would be like in mass use. Thats where p1b comes in.

This is just to confirm safety. Any other data that is thrown off is useful and can be template for tweaking p1b so as to get the best results.

Great. But is there enough money to get there? You don't raise money when there is nothing left, you have to do it some months before hand, so mid 24 really is the end of 23 for instance.

I don't know what cash burn is like. i don't know how much profit the Dx is now producing so i don't know if there is a cash flow issue looming. The last results make me think it is more likely than not, and that was confirmed with AS saying he thought AVCT was overvalued.

Anyway, it will be what it will be, nothing none of us can do about it, whatever is going on.

"What happens next? SP much higher than it is today is my view. Short term noise is just that noise."

Its not about the science. Its about the money....Its always about the money.

This is an investment. Its about maximising returns. Thats all the big players are interested in. Period.

There are countless public and private companies with potential disrupter technologies constantly vying for money.

Ipad, I think this is all part of the "problem".

Basically the extension has added about 12 months to the trail. (They lost 4 months before they could restart and there is maybe another DE coming up.

Take out the emotional state most here are in, this is a fundamental question for potential funders.

They just want to know whats going on and likely to happen so as to be able to make an informed decision.

I think the extension in timelines has thrown the last cash raise up in the air.

I THINK that at the time enough money was raised to get through P1a and well into P1b with some sort of update in efficacy to allow AVCT to decide which course of action suited them best from a very powerful position.

Right now they are imo, no-mans-land. Possibly not enough money to get to where they expected to be, so now they are not in a position to dictate terms as they perhaps expected.

With AS saying don't fret over a lack of news means this is going to drag on I think.