Member Info for wyndrum

Because the level of discourse makes it worthwhile

Strangy "Keep ranting and raving everyone and all hijack what to me looks like a great find."

Could it be a possibility that the extra sites being brought on board now, are because more cohorts are needed for more DE's?

It may be great news or just a a neccessity because the trial is to be extended further. All I am saying is :

WE DON'T KNOW!

I just try not to assume anything and try and look at all the outcomes available.

Right now, I am disappointed by the time its taken to get this far and with the ultimately inconclusive data other than it works. (And that is as low as the bar could ever be set. It doesn't harm people and more dox does get to the tumour but until we get on to efficacy we can't hope to value this company)

So, so far so good, but the ultimate part of the trial is yet to take place and we no longer have a timeline as to when those results will be available.

You might be delighted where we are, I personally had we not got this far, would be to put it mildly, very disappointed. The fact that its taken this long frustrates me.

"Wait a second here, you are assuming folk are investing on Avacta more than they can afford to lose."

Yes I am. And there is plenty of evidence on here of admissions of just this thing.

(I am a not assuming everyone is but I would say most. I often look at posters history just to see what other stocks they comment on and therefore are likely to have a holding in and most commonly they are are a similar profile, small cap, high risk potential big return. )

Still none of us (apart from me ) are gambling when investing.....

"So would you play heads and tails 50/50 chance at say £1 to get £4?"

Ice, thats a very good analogy

I would too. But thats not what we do here is it.

Now, would you put down £50,000 to win £200,000 on a 50/50 spin?

Thats why I bang on about not betting more than you can comfortably afford to lose. £1 and who cares.. £100, who cares .£1,000 hmm well thats a quite lot for a 50/50 coin toss... etc etc.

I have an amount that I don't care about the result. Thats why I look at this more cautiously and try not to assume very much esp when it is from a company that serially diassapoints.

There is no boat to miss Ice. I keep a core holding in this because of the potential should it come good.

I just don't carried away with this particular company any more.

(And not for nothing this "Missing the boat" argument was wheeled out here every day over the 18 months or so of the LFT hype.)

I have a holding that if this is fails won't financially hurt me. If it 5 or 10 bags it will make my retirement more comfortable than if it didn't. Either way I can live with it or without it.

You lot are incorrigible. You have made up your minds(just like you did previously) and won't entertain any other point of view or potential outcome, even though you have first hand experience of what was implied and yet did not happen.

This trial is about safety, its not about efficacy, so they are increasing the dose to get a clearer and/or more accurate result for the efficacy part as and when it ever comes round. We don't know why. It could be its exceeded expectations (but that has not been given as a reason.) No reason has been given other than from Avacta's point of view it was "unexpected" to now want to get to an MTD level. It would suggest to me, that maybe the data thus far is inconclusive to allow P1b therefore more cohorts and more DE's are needed

Anyway, to assume efficacy efficiency at this stage is nuts.

oh and by the way I googled "remarkable" in medical language:

"The usage of 'remarkable' terminology in MRI and CT reports indicates that things are slightly deviating from the norm."

"the wording in the RNS of 21 June makes it clear that patients in at least 2 of the UK-based cohorts have responded during treatment ("several patients in cohort 5 and earlier cohorts remain on treatment as their disease has not progressed")."

NO IT DOESN'T !!

It specifically does not say they have responded.!! It is an assumption you are making. Its not a fact

The trial is on patients whose Cancer is Dox resistant.

It could be that the disease has not progressed for some other reason and as a result are able to stay on the trial for longer.

Its at the top of a resistance level at 17.25p so it will be interesting to see if it can finish above it today.

Broadly speaking if it can, then 22p ish is next. we will see... Very exciting!

Maybe Tim, the amount of patients being used is (relatively) so small that the data produced has wide variations?

At no stage has AVCT said it is working better than expected. So your assumption that it is, is based on the CEO not saying that?

Why do you think AS said, going from an expected completion of this phase at the end of DE4, was to him "Unexpected" from the trial safety committee to continue for maybe another 3 DE's (That's 75% out of his original estimate)

I get you don't agree with me but where is your justification and basis that it is exceeding expectations?

We know its safe, we know dox is being released into the tumour (but we don't know to what effect), but that was obviously the whole point of the trial.

MTD was the aim at the very outset, so why after the lab/mice results did AS say it would be done in 4 DE's? Does that not suggest it is not following the "expected" trajectory in humans?

"The Company will now assess this judgement in detail and consider the appropriate next steps factoring in the findings of the judgement and the interests of Harland & Wolff's stakeholders."

Thats the bit that I think is the most telling. It looks to me a flag that they will likely sell it. This is just my opinion of course, but it makes so much sense to have such a big cash injection as at a stoke it secures the foreseeable future, reduces potential borrowings and therefore interest costs etc, allows companies to have more confidence in H&W long term when placing orders and allows a quicker move to updating the yards where necessary or taking opportunities as they arise rather than being at the behest of the funder.

Anyway, thats my view.

"Do you have some kind of obsessive compulsive disorder which compels you to repeat yourself?"

"what i do wnat to hear is why you feel the need to repeat yourself on here 100's of times a day."

"Please answer me why you feel the need to repeat yourself?"

Now that's irony ha ha ha

Gj if posts like yours stopped asking banal and stupid questions of me I would have no need to repeat myself.

So perhaps look at yourself before you post something equally as pointless again

Has it occurred to you Jive, that I find your biased views just as controversial?

The arrogance of you and others that like to pretend that there is some moral high ground on an investment BB who's purpose is to discuss different point of views, and then parade your virtue and assumption that your view and analysis is somehow supreme by then pretending you have "filtered" posters you disagree with is, I find, somewhat pathetic.

Jive, your assumption is wrong.

I tried twice to balance your lop sided and partial view of the LFT but both were deleted. I suggest all simply go back and read the RNS (there are not that many of them) relevant to the Covid period and see EXACTLY what AS said and implied and then re-read Jive's post and see if you still agree with his view.

I can buy a few Grands worth below 7p?

900 out of a NI population of just under 2m and no doubt some objections were not local but UK wide?

Not exactly "Greenham Common" is it.....

I honestly don't think they would get a pre-drill raise away this late in the day.

Or it would do more harm than good.

They have had along time to do a pre-drill rise and in fact did, for just this outcome (ie the next drill).

So I read LB's recent, possibly, (although not to me) ambiguous statement to mean once they have drilled with some or any sort of positive result and a resurgent SP, that then that MIGHT be the opportunistic moment. I, certainly given the history of RNS's interviews since DM left, did not imagine at all that they would try one now so soon before potential success after all the metaphorical and literal groundwork has been done.

Wolfy, the window for a raise pre drill has passed I think.

If the drill fails then given it was selected as the best place to start it does not bode well for the rest of the basin. I think the next steps would be a raise and a hiring out of our drill to try and get a few mill in as well as another £10m or so raise for maybe 3 drills. and then or perhaps, instead, sell the licenses off and give what is left back to the shareholders.

Anyway, assuming LB was correct there is enough money for this drill.

Its very exciting!

Jive, "In retrospect, yes, the window for LFTs was quite short, so every day mattered."

Retrospective? I was saying this since at least November 2020 when vaccines were first launched. (and in my wynbag way, explained why I thought so. And of course, more than once).

Apre, nothing I said was any of the things you have stated. You constanlt play this reporting card.

I put up an idea, I support it with my reasoning. Others post contrary views and we discuss.

What is your problem? If you don't like alternate views then don't visit a BB that discusses investments.