Member Info for wyndrum

Chief, that would be, the by now, infamous 140-142p mark.

So about 15% potential gain from 123p which is usually ok for most short termer's

WWP, I am not sure why the placing shareholders will sell below what they paid for the stock. I don't know if its possible that they have forward sold their positions, or in fact another possibility is they want to hold on for drill results.

As long as there is personal no over commitment then it's largely academic.

No actually the reverse, I sold all the way down from 256p after it peaked at 280p and it looked more likely falls were going to continue.

I refer to the LFT simply to highlight that FA took a lot of people down the wrong path and stopped them either profiting from the rise beforehand or convinced then to buy at those much higher prices.

I would also point out that when you think that you, through your FA approach removes a good deal of the "gambling" out of the decision making, you seem to ignore that every product AVCT have commercially develped has failed so far. This does not mean the next one will, but simply FA did not forecast these commercial failures, so what does that say?

Did you think based on FA that BAMS would be successful? or Elisa, or the LFT, did you think by now Affimers would be contributing to the DX strand of the business?

Did FA Predict that there would be a M&A policy on the DX given AVCT have disruptive technology in that very dept?

This is not a particular criticism just an attempt to give some balance to the "TA is rubbish, FA is the only way to go" narrative.

Donkey I don't think I was being contradictory.

I explained (as you agreed with) the two systems time difference, but separately to explain (in my view) the irrational hostility some FA people have to the concept of TA.

And forgive me Donkey but when you say "learning from history and history repeating itself which some investors, myself included, try to use. .." is pretty much the foundation of TA. You are using long(er) term timeframes and the data you use is company results (which cannot be forecasted long term). But the principle is the same, TA just uses SP data.

Its each to his own but my personal view is that in this very fast changing world it was apparent to me several years ago that looking 5-10-20 years ahead is basically impossible on an individual company basis which then pushed me to much shorter time frames.

Each to his own but without talking about LFT per se, this company seemed to have cracked it but events, whether it was govt corruption or vaccines being rushed out or poor science, or whatever, made what initially looked a slam dunk, fail totally. (Who knew? Not me to begin with for sure. )

I think we have to accept that HE1 has over-saturated the market with stock to stay in business. As a result there is little chance of much SP appreciation now unless and until commercial Helium is recorded.

oh well,....

Oh Strangy, "YOU ARE THE EVER SEEING EYE THAT TOLD EVERYONE...." I only remind people what i did get right when I am lambasted for being constantly wrong and disruptive and spreading FUD and any other number of derogatory and untruthful statements.

I recognise I don't know whats going to happen but have found a system that seems to narrow the odds and gives me a slight edge.

As for "I think you are a secret gambler and do not want to admit it." I think I have made it clear several times that I am gambler, my point is so is everyone here too.

Your point when you admit "My views are with lots of reading and trying to understand the business and the science." means that currently you don't but have put your money on the line in the expectation that when you do understand more of what is going on it will have been the correct decision.

But thats not gambling? Do you know what the result of the this DE will be? do you know if there will be another DE? Do you know if there will be a cash raise soon? Do you know if there will be an offer? do you know there will be a license deal? Do you know what the SP will be in 5 years? (or any timeframe you choose).

But of course you are not gambling on any of these outcomes are you?

Baffyman, I think a lot of the hostility towards the principle of TA comes from the other form of investing , fundamental analysis.

Again, i think for some its a human nature thing and deciding a course of action (FA) and then don't want to hear anything else that contradicts or might even work more effectively. (Bloody Minded in the vernacular)

The reasoning that caught my attention at the out set is that its people who buy and sell that cause the price movements not the company itself, so if crowds are predictable, then ergo as it crowds that need to act in a certain way to move a SP, then can it be "predicted".

The thing is we all know this is true as we can all complain that the market has "valued" a company incorrectly, but that handwringing does not alter the price.

The other thing is that neither system works all the time. If it was just FA then how easy would that be!

Each to his own but TA works on a shorter timescale and FA takes the longer view. I find it hard enough to figure out what the next few days weeks MIGHT reveal, how people can think they project years ahead is always a bit of a mystery to me.

Strangy in your normal juvenille way of trying to score points you ask questions that are not related to TA.

I have explained in depth and in detail how it "works" and that it forecasts nothing but suggests what the most likely outcome is which is ultimately based on crowd psychology. To say TA is rubbish is to at the same time rubbish all the research an understanding of that subject too.

I have said what I think is most likely earlier in this thread, but you are simply obsessed and desperate to comment negatively on everything I post. You keep saying I talk down to you? maybe there is a reason... Try growing up.

Anyway, back to the OP:

Closed according to HL at 119.5 with a corresponding RSI at 72.83p. So, just starting to get into toppy range now.

fwiw I still think it will have a proper go at 123p but as ever, we will see.

Some people who use charts might get in around here (buy at 120p) as, if they think 123p will be breached then it will likely retrace back to it, so might try and be cute and buy now a few p below rather than wait to get in around 123p or a couple of p more accounting for the spread. (Its that logic that might push the SP up a few p more tomorrow and take the RSI up a bit more. Its all about crowd psychology.

(The clear buying signal was when 106p went, or even 107.5 to improve the odds of further gains likely)

Others will buy just because its going up.

You few can carry on taking your cheap shots but the OP has garnered 16 recs which suggests more people than you few, were interested.

So perhaps you could be a bit less self centred and dictatorial as to what you think can and can't be posted?

Chris, CJ picked the absolute bottom on the biggest fall in AVCT history.

You might think that is niche, I personally would like to have found out what his criteria were (other than luck), for that great timing.

"Please make it stop, it's filtered and still boring 💤💤🦭🦭🦭💤💤"

Good one Tim,

At least you might have an inkling how you think your constant, oh so funny, ironic replies are to Hurst (and others) that you perpetually feel the need to respond to, that are, well, not. Pretty much like to this thread actually.

CJ, the price fell very rapidly from 95p, I am impressed that you saw value at 40p but not at 70p, 60p,or 50p on its way down to the low. Particularly as you did not use a a chart to help see if perhaps the double bottom at 41.5p was indeed the low and there was a clear buying signal at 45p.

I don't understand how you can see the "value" in a company when at the time there was no way to value it, (Loss making, years away from trials being completed with results unknown, and that somehow at 45p its a buy but not when it started its fall from 95p on the way down.?)

I don'think anyone is particularly like me, but I always like looking at alternatives and am interested as to how you got this absolutely spot on when there were so many other opportunities to buy anywhere from 280p down

Clever you CJ, what if you had stacked up at 280p then? What was wrong with that valuation?

How did you not know it was not MM at 40p and would go to 30p?

The MM's are tasked to run an orderly market. so there is bound to be a bit of SP movement.

Anyway, as I said clever you buying at completely the bottom of the market of the last few years based on a hunch.

So when and how do you decide to buy CJ? If you can't trust the SP at any given moment how do you work out the best time to buy?

Why is it every move the SP makes is MM?

over the last 5 trading sessions there has been a 12-15% move up, depending on where you take the low from (102-104)

Without re-rehearsing the merits or not of trading, some might see a 15% return within a week worth banking on what is recognised still, as a high risk stock.

I would have thought by now with the length of time that has gone on that the SP reflects pretty accurately and genuinely where AVCT are. Plenty of promise but still some unanswered questions.

Not everything is a conspiracy....

The problem with (imo) using hourly or intra day prices is, how does that help?

Surely its only good to (literally) day trade on? But the spread negates that so, with typically a 3p spread it allows the hourly RSI to unwind without the opportunity to trade it. (ok maybe , maybe a 1% profit in the best circumstances but the risk reward works against that.

So yes technically it was over bought but now its not and its a 3p move?

Anyway if you make it work for you then fair enough.

Well, Love, as always it depends on the time intervals used:

Currently according to HL charts Fridays close was showing an RSI of 65.26.

Most books will say 70 and above is over bought but I find 80 is the magic number for a more reliable figure to work from. So not over bought.

If the upward trend is to continue then I see it going to 123p or thereabouts and at that stage as it hits the resistance with a likely matching RSI of around 80, it would fall back to unwind before (hopefully) having another go.

The caveat is if surprising news comes out which will over rule the chart outlook (imo dyor etc)

WE have been here before fairly recently where the SP went from 99p to 123p before falling back again.

Could be a rinse and repeat as the market divines we are close to the end of anther DE and therefore looks forward to a positive update.

However if this turns out to either be the last one or the accompanying update is very p[ositive even if a 7th is required could at last break this trading range.

Fingers crossed

So, this placing was done super quick and it did not give enough time for PI's to join in and even then it was a small amount.

I may (and I mean it) be being too subjective, but, my thinking would be, that it would have had to have been pretty persuasive to get high net worth individuals to buy into such a high risk venture, so either this amount of money meant nothing to them (quite possibly, but why not have already bought before), or this really does look very good in terms of risk reward. And as a result they (the high rollers) being greedy bastards, wanted as much of the pie as poss and thats why PI's got shut out.

They may well have dictated the price to get more shares for their money as I think LB in her interview more or less said that cost of setting the drill and camp up escalated way beyond their initial budget and basically they ran out of cash.

Anyway, not long to find out now.

Blimey Rodge, I am not sure you have the right mind set for this game... Karma? really?

Anyone feeling down about this is only because they have too much invested.

Just try and imagine if your total investment was a £100 when the SP was 10p, would you care at all now it was worth £60?

You would put it down to experience for next time and still be quite content, in this example, to carry on in the hope that helium is discovered and you get back your £40 and more besides, but at the same would not care less if you lost the remaining £60.

Thats why you never ever bet more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

Once you get all this emotional angst when things don't go as planned you then normally make further poor decisions.