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The caveat being this is very early in the day but, the SP' reaction is somewhat underwhelming.

Clearly the market is pondering something, that we have not factored in.

DT, maybe a bit more flesh on the bones of last weeks RNS but maybe thats as far as AVCT can go given the short timescale to this Thursday, but certainly I would imagine a lot of people are keen to see how the 2 new companies are fairing under AVCT stewardship.

There has been enough time lapsed for LD to be talked about in detail and I hope that AVCT do. (it would look bad if they did not. imo)

A relatively lot of money has been invested (or spent), to develop the DX arm and a clearer picture of where we are and what the ultimate destination is and what stops are on the way is necessary.

There is no reason for AVCT not to talk about this and given the TX is probably up to speed for the time being, this what I expect a lot of the update to cover as well as the usual business stuff that comes with these events, (particularly as there has been almost no mention of the DX other than announcements of the original purchases at the time.)

LW, its is to me genuinely odd, that the price is this low with all the "good news" and as I said in another post it looks more to me as though some sort of "bad" news is expected/priced in.

Thats why I think (but what do i know), a statement saying we are actually drilling and a "So far so good, x depth done on day 1" type of thing would allow the market to re-evaluate. hence my arbitary 9p spike.

I get there are a million connotations to de-risk/trade etc etc, but this looks to risky to try and trade now

Its at the stage as I said earlier, if you (anyone) think there is a better than 50/50 chance of success then take a punt on whatever amount you can afford to lose and let it play out.

This time around, there has been very few opportunities to get in low and get out at high. (The only one was the first raise around 5p and get out at 10p)

Anyway, each to his own but I am happy to see this play out, good or ill.

This is priced now I think as a punt (rightly or wrongly).

So very low price bearing in mind Spud is a matter of days away.

So if good news breaks, then the SP (in theory) will move very quickly and could easily appreciate 50% straight away.

So now, what do you do? its 9p (ish) and a week or 2 away from potentially declaring a commercial discovery.

You buy in at 9p and it fails and goes to 2p (say). Or it strikes helium and goes to 20p.

Personally it seems to me simply at this low price, to buy an amount you are completely comfortable in losing the lot and then if all goes well you can always add, but if it fails... well, .... c'est la vie.

Again, next week all should be revealed as to the smarts (or not) in buying these 2 companies

It looks as though this was the pivotal news as the investor mags have all picked it up now and running with it.

It also suggests that they always new about it but needed a bit more certainty in likely outcomes and indeed the timeline.

A bit (but only a bit) disappointing no nationals ran with it but maybe we will see something in the "Sundays" tipping AVCT

Imo you drastically over estimate the term "traders".

The spread eliminates short term trading. coupled with news dropping at any moment with the greater chance of "good news" rather than bad does not make this stock remotely desirable to short. (unless there is insider trading going on).

Plus the company is financed.

My experience which I said months ago, is that pre spud rises seem to be a thing of the past, but nevertheless with the security of a drill(s) and finance, a rise to around 9-10p seemed perfectly reasonable.

I think all it is that the market has sold off rather than shorted due to the uncertainty already expressed over LLI coupled with the higher risk of failure rather than success.

Personally I have ever only bought in to see it through to conclusion. but at the same time only in an amount I would not be affected by should it fail.

Anyway, each to his own. (Not long to go now)

JAdams,

Maybe they will but as I have said before I don't think the need for extra funds is the issue, its when will the tech be commercialised that is the absolute key issue.

So even if you are right (and although I have an open mind about it I don't, on balance, think it would happen this quickly after AS saying there was no immediate rush), if a cash raise goes hand in hand with supportive data on the tech coupled with a clearer, realistic timeline then the SP could appreciate substantially on a raise. (More so, obviously if it was non dilutive)

My reading between the lines now is that whatever form the extra funding takes it will be year end with 7th DE results and further timeline data available to the market.

For me there is at last a (bright) light at the end of the tunnel, both as an investment and for the good this could be able to do with all those affected by the cancers this might affect.

Whether or not its true, it looks to me as though the market has priced in a delay, or something else.

I do wonder if there is to be a "surprise" tie up with noble. or even take over (ok, that's a bit out there)

Anyway, although HE1 is still within the timeframes of their own announcement, the SP is telling a different story.

Somethings afoot... (just my opinion dyor etc etc)

"AS destroyed the elephant in the room in his Paul Hill interview,"

Oh I must have missed that. Did he say no further funds were necessary? Or did he say that they would prefer non-dilutive funding? (his desires, wishes and preferences don't mean squat to professional investors or indeed many PI's)

I thought I heard him say that was no immediate need for funding without clarifying what cash at hand was and what the cash burn is.

And thats fine because as I have said, I expect the clarification to come on Thursday next week.

But 3 years ago there was a cash raise at 120p after AS said there was not going to be one. We are in the midst of the longest ever cash raise now where every time the SP starts to move forward 4m shares are dumped bringing it down and all the time the market is calculating when the next one will drop. And in that situation you expect investors to buy?

Then we have another cash raise to buy DX companies that no one saw coming.

Given that the idea is to buy at what the individual thinks will be the lowest level, more cautious, genuine, investors would rather pay more with lower risk than gamble for potentially bigger returns but much higher risk.

The thing about a cash raise (whatever view anyone has), is that it has hung over AVCT ever since the last one and indeed the one before that.

That "fear" of possible dilution is a big weight to SP appreciation in exactly this situation, ie a relatively long trial before results and further clarity.

Unfortunately whatever AS says is not going to help because its too vague. (we are looking at... we hope to, we don't think... etc) and thats ok because thats the game.

But the facts are currently until we know differently, that extra funds will be needed. Exactly where they come form is the Million $ question.

I am as confident as I can be that the update next week will address this in more detail.

As this stage of the trial now has a firm date of finishing ( DE7 being the last and ending this year) is a tremendous boost to resolving the funding issue for a much longer time (if not for ever... that would be nice).

This set of circumstances is the first time in AVCT's history that I think that might be possible.

Imo, its not so much needing more cash per se, thats the nature of the beast, but the need for any further raises (after possibly one last one) may no longer be necessary and that gives the market certainty in a way that it has never had with AVCT before.

Once that is in play then the prospect of a proper re-rate is on the cards, or at least a reasonable expectation.

Roll on next week.

Prof, you might get lucky at around 119/120p but for me 123p was a target . otherwise its 108p which given the news seems less likely (to me)

Good luck

Well it came back to 123p so I topped up.

"Negotiations will be taking place for best shareholder outcome..."

Hmm, well that would be a first... but you never know

Sorry Ice but AS's previous intimations on "inking deals " and all the rest of it, just makes me take his interview statements with a dollop of salt.

I have always through out that if successful, a BO was the most likely outcome and my original timeline was 12-18 months so now, is in the next 9 months.

Anyway its only a week or so until the update so we can all wait a bit longer.

The whole issue of future funding should be raised at the update. Particularly as the interview stressed and highlighted the, now expected, shorter runway to commercialisation. This suggests to me that realistic timelines are being drawn up which in turn allows a much better likely cash runway needed to get there.

The latest figures will show cash at hand and the current cash burn, so that' will be the yard stick.

AS has intimated his desire to have a non-dilutive cash raise (wouldn't we all), along with hints at interest in the tech but that (vagueness) in itself means little at this point.

so, Lets wait another couple of weeks to get a clearer picture.

Cybs, how does someone correctly forecasting a drop in the SP based on correctly forecasting the reason behind it ahead of it happening, cause people to lose money?

Is that not what these BB's are for? talking through ideas that we might all profit from if agreeing with the logic?

LW did not cause HE1 to do the placing, did he, so he has no responsibility at all for the SP fall.

To incur "Karma" as some sort of BS retribution for being correct on a financial BB says more about you than him.

Do you not realise that shares can down as well as up?

Do you realise that companies only, for no other reason only list on public markets to raise money? Thats the whole point of going public. And even more so when you are a loss making company.

Did you think that there was no raise coming at any time, or did you accept that you thought it might be after the drill, in which case all you are saying is your logic of timing was different to LW, and as it turned out you were wrong and he was right.

and you want Karma to prove you right..... I don't think you even have a clue about Buddhism, certainly your bile towards LW suggests you don't.

BV: why provoke an argument after such a good day?

The "concern" I had was the continual extension beyond what AS himself had always stated (only 4 then 6 ,... 7, very unlikely etc) with accompanying ambiguous statements. Then overlay it with what he has said in the past with poor commercial outcomes and it made me sceptical of exactly how good was the progress.

Today even allowing for some subjective wording to describe the success of DE6, the big thing for me is the shortened trial lengths going forward, the (good) chance now that this might be fast tracked further. The 2nd biggest thing is the SP reaction having been told there will indeed be a 7th DE

All of that points to a more substantive picture than we have had before of the progress we all wanted to see.

I quite accept many here never had any doubts at any time, but I was not one of them. But for me, today read like AVCT had turned a corner.

Well, if this does not make the papers tomorrow, You would have to wonder what's going on.

The RNS in itself was (imo) a breakthrough in potential (near) future treatment, but with the added context of the interview with Paul Hill it must get a mention somehow, somewhere, surely?

(And it would certainly give another, further boost to the SP to boot!)

I see a green box, so its hurst.

I beg you please.... don't post anything

you are the kiss of death to SP appreciation in this stock.

Ipad ,the 123p target is (imo) more significant, so fingers crossed that disappears into the rear view mirror too